Recent Rain Will Not Improve Drought Status

June 23rd, 2011 at 3:23 pm by under Weather

Here’s the latest drought update from the NWS:


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

...ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT STATUS...

SYNOPSIS...
JUNE FINALLY SAW SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE
EVENING OF JUNE 22ND AND INTO THE AFTERNOON OF JUNE 23RD RAINFALL
WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS
DECENT RAINFALL EVENT...RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE IS ABOUT 50
PERCENT LESS THAN THE AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. WE WOULD NEED
SEVERAL MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS TO BEGIN TO ALLEVIATE THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN
TWO INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2010 AND THIS REGION MISSED
OUT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE MOST RECENT EVENT. AFTER
THE RECENT RAINFALL THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING BACK TO HOT AND DRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE
THE OUTLOOK FOR RAINFALL IS NOT GOOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE RECENT LA NINA EVENT HAS ENDED AND THE CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SUMMER. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FALL AND WINTER.



THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 21ST AND ISSUED ON JUNE
23RD...SHOWED ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS. THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY GET WORSE WITH
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN CONTINUING.

EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VAL VERDE...SOUTHERN ZAVALA...MOST OF DIMMIT...EXTREME
SOUTHERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHEASTERN DEWITT AND SOUTHWESTERN LAVACA
COUNTY.

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

MOST OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). NINETY-ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS. THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF EXTREME NORTH TEXAS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN NO DROUGHT DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL. MODERATE TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO
RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION DRIES OUT AND HIGHER
TEMPERATURES RETURN. IF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL THEN
THE FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH. AS OF JUNE 23RD... BURN BANS
WERE IN EFFECT FOR ALL 33 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT
THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE`S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO CONDUCT ANY
TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE JUNE 23RD KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI VALUES
RANGED FROM 400 TO 600 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS HAD VALUES OF 600 TO 800. THE KBDI VALUES HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAINFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

IN THE JUNE 21ST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE REGION REMAINED COMPLETELY DRY.
RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 101 TO 104 DEGREES AND ABOVE...ALONG
WITH HIGH WINDS...AGGRAVATED THE DROUGHT. MOST OF THE REGION
REMAINED IN EXTREMELY HIGH WILDFIRE-ALERT STATUS. MOST DRYLAND
CROPS FAILED. IRRIGATED CORN AND SORGHUM WERE DRYING DOWN.
SUNFLOWER GROWERS WERE HARVESTING. PEANUTS...COTTON...PECANS...
GRAPES AND LANDSCAPE NURSERY CROPS MADE GOOD PROGRESS UNDER HEAVY
IRRIGATION...BUT AT HIGH PUMPING COSTS. THE PEACH HARVEST BEGAN.
THE CABBAGE...ONION...POTATO...WATERMELON...CANTALOUPE...GREEN
BEAN AND SWEET CORM HARVESTS WERE ONGOING. ONION YIELDS AND
QUALITY HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT BUT ONION PRICES REMAINED WEAK.
FARMERS WERE HARVESTING TOMATOES...ONIONS...SQUASH AND OTHER
SPRING VEGETABLES FOR SALE AT ROADSIDE MARKETS. PASTURES AND
RANGELAND GRASSES STOPPED GROWING BECAUSE OF THE HOT...DRY
WEATHER. FORAGE AVAILABILITY WAS BELOW AVERAGE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

JUNE WAS HEADED FOR THE RECORD BOOKS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL
THROUGH THE 22ND OF THE MONTH. THE RAINFALL EVENT ON JUNE
22-23 WAS WELCOMED...BUT WILL SOILS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRY OUT
QUICKLY DUE TO LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES. SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2010 EVERY MONTH THROUGH MAY...
EXCEPT JANUARY 2011 HAS SEEN BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. ALL LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING AT LEAST FIVE TO TEN INCH DEFICITS FOR THE
YEAR TO DATE. THE YEAR TO DATE DEPARTURES WOULD BE MUCH GREATER
EXCEPT MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A WET JANUARY.

BELOW IS A TABLE SHOWING OBSERVED RAINFALL...AVERAGE FOR THE
MONTH AND DEPARTURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY 1 2011 THROUGH
MAY 31 2011.

 SITE        JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY

AUSTIN       3.67   0.64   0.15   0.19   1.91
BERGSTROM    2.21   2.02   2.36   2.63   5.12
            +1.46  -1.38  -2.21  -2.44  -3.21

AUSTIN       2.92   0.48   0.09   0.27   3.65
MABRY        1.89   1.99   2.14   2.51   5.03
            +1.03  -1.51  -2.05  -2.24  -1.38

DEL RIO      0.08   0.15   0.04   0.01   1.07
             0.57   0.96   0.96   1.71   2.31
            -0.49  -0.81  -0.92  -1.70  -1.24

SAN ANTONIO  2.66   0.49   0.01   0.03   0.84
             1.66   1.75   1.89   2.60   4.72
            +1.00  -1.26  -1.88  -2.57  -3.88

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2011 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 22, 2011 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2011 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY        9.42              16.58         -7.16
AUSTIN BERGSTROM    7.95              17.07         -9.12
SAN ANTONIO         5.61              16.00        -10.39
DEL RIO             1.80               8.27         -6.47

THROUGH MIDNIGHT JUNE 22ND...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.45 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.31 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.76
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 88.1
DEGREES. THIS IS 5.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.5 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT JUNE 22ND...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL HAS
RECEIVED 1.58 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.80 INCHES BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 3.38 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 86.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS 5.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.0 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT JUNE 22ND...AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECEIVED
2.01 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.01 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 3.02 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE AT
AUSTIN MABRY IS 87.3 DEGREES. THIS IS 6.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 80.4 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT JUNE 22ND...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL
HAS RECEIVED 1.39 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.34 INCHES BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 2.73 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE
TO DATE AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL IS 85.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.9 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON JUNE 22ND AND VALID JUNE 30TH THROUGH JULY 6TH IS
CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.



THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2011 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2011...
CREATED ON JUNE 16TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LACK
OF RAINFALL...EVAPORATION RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WITH
INCREASES IN WATER USAGE WHICH CAUSES LAKES AND RESERVOIRS TO
FALL.

HYDROLOGIC AND AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT. MANY STOCK TANKS REMAIN
EXTREMELY LOW AND SOME ARE IN DANGER OF DRYING UP. THE RECENT
RAINFALL DID REPLENISH SOME STOCK TANKS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

AREA AQUIFERS ARE CONTINUING TO FALL DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL
AND INCREASING USAGE. THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENT DID PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY BUMP UP IN THE AQUIFER LEVELS.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE TO 10 TO 24 PERCENT
(BELOW NORMAL) RANGE OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT (MUCH BELOW) FOR
BASINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE RIO GRANDE IS CURRENTLY SEEING STREAM FLOWS OF 25 TO 75
PERCENT (NORMAL).

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 23RD ...

MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL
POOL ELEVATIONS. LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FALLING AS THE
DRIER PATTERN CONTINUES AND WATER USAGE INCREASES DURING THE
SUMMER.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                 1035.11
CANYON LAKE          909                    904.64
LAKE TRAVIS          681                    647.20
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                   1003.69
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                    777.79
LAKE AMISTAD        1117                   1113.09

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS IF THE REGION DOES NOT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS NORMALLY START WHEN THE AQUIFER FALLS BELOW
640 FEET. THE EDWARDS AQUIFER DID FALL TO 639.9 FEET ON JUNE 21ST.
THE CURRENT LEVEL AS OF JUNE 23 WAS 643.7 FEET. THERE ARE SEVERAL
STEPS CURRENTLY BEING TAKEN BY THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY TO
INSURE THAT EVEN IF THE AQUIFER FALLS BELOW 640 FEET...STAGE 3
RESTRICTIONS MAY NOT NEED TO BE IMPLEMENTED IMMEDIATELY. THE
CITY OF AUSTIN REMAINS IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. SAN MARCOS
IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS AND THE CITY OF
KERRVILLE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE IMPLEMENTED
THE FIRST STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WATER SUPPLIES.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS CURRENTLY READING 643.7 FEET AND THIS IS
19.4 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR JUNE WHICH IS
663.3 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL IS 29.5 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME IN JUNE 2010.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

 

One Response to “Recent Rain Will Not Improve Drought Status”

  1. PJ Pierce says:

    Is there any sign that the La Nina is breaking up and an El Nino will start to kick in — possibly in October like it did two years ago when the drought broke in October with welcoming rainfalls? I just need some sort of hope to get through the rest of the summer.