Work Week Rain Chances

November 20th, 2011 at 3:35 pm by under Weather

A low pressure system sitting off the coast of California will bring us chances for rain Monday and Tuesday. Best chances will be late Monday night and early Tuesday morning as that low pulls a cold front across Central Texas.

Some thunderstorms are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has the Hill Country in a slight risk for severe storms Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The bulk of the threat will be to our west Monday evening but a few strong storms are possible overnight as the front moves through.

Unfortunately, we’re not looking at large rainfall accumulations. Most of us should see less than a half an inch. Here’s the 2-day rainfall graphic from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for Sunday night through Tuesday night.

That’s just not going to be enough to put a dent in our drought.

Here’s the latest on our drought situation from the NWS:


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST THU NOV 17 2011

...ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
STATUS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER THERE HAS BEEN ONE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT ON NOVEMBER 14TH-15TH. THE RAINFALL WAS
WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS VARIED GREATLY RANGING FROM A
HALF-INCH TO THREE INCHES. MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENTS OVER SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE NECESSARY TO
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT RAINFALL DEFICITS.

THE LA NINA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER.
THIS USUALLY MEANS BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE FALL AND INTO THE
WINTER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID NOVEMBER 15TH AND
ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 17TH...SHOWED ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN MODERATE (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS.

MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN VAL VERDE...MAVERICK...AND PORTIONS
OF ZAVALA COUNTY.

EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

MOST OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). EIGHTY-NINE PERCENT OF THE STATE
IS IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS AND
SIXTY-FIVE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL (D4)
DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY MODERATE DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL.
UNTIL WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE OBSERVED THE FIRE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE. AS OF NOVEMBER 17TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT
FOR 27 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH
ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...GONZALES...GUDALUPE...HAYS...LAVACA AND
WILSON COUNTIES HAVE LIFTED THEIR BURN BANS.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO CONDUCT
ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE NOVEMBER 17TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI
VALUES RANGED FROM 300 TO 500 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION HAS KBDI VALUES OF 500 TO 700.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH... NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...
WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY
DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM
ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE NOVEMBER 15TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...INDICATED TEMPERATURES WERE MILD
WITH WINDY WEATHER. EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WITH THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL...ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE
TO SEE RAINFALL DEFICITS GROW. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE 20 TO 30 INCHES. LOCATIONS OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS CURRENTLY HAVE RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2011 TO MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 16, 2011
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2011 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY       12.61              30.68        -18.07
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   10.60              28.76        -18.16
SAN ANTONIO        13.46              29.53        -16.07
DEL RIO             8.82              18.53        - 9.71

THROUGH MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 16TH...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.63 OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS IS 0.04 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 0.59 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR FOR NOVEMBER
IS 63.7 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.2 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
63.5 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 16TH...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL HAS
RECEIVED 0.53 OF AN INCH RAIN. THIS IS 0.92 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.45 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL SO FAR FOR NOVEMBER IS 64.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.5
OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 63.7 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 16TH...AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECEIVED
0.77 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.03 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 1.80 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR FOR NOVEMBER
AT AUSTIN MABRY IS 64.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.4 OF A DEGREE ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 63.7 DEGREES.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 16TH...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL
HAS RECEIVED 0.77 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.04 INCHES
BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.81 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO
FAR FOR NOVEMBER AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL IS 62.4
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 61.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL COULD BE WIDESPREAD...
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID NOVEMBER.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 16TH AND VALID NOVEMBER 24TH THROUGH NOVEMBER
30TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2011 THROUGH FEBRUARY
2012...CREATED ON NOVEMBER 17TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE LACK OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
TO FALL.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ALONG WITH
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MANY STOCK
TANKS REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW AND MANY HAVE DRIED UP.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE TO 10 TO 24 PERCENT
(BELOW NORMAL) RANGE OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT (MUCH BELOW) FOR
BASINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 10TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
POOL ELEVATIONS. LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FALLING AS THE
DROUGHT CONTINUES. LEVELS SHOULD NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH
EVAPORATION RATES DECREASING DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                 1016.50
CANYON LAKE          909                    898.90
LAKE TRAVIS          681                    626.41
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                    988.70
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                    767.11
LAKE AMISTAD        1117                   1108.93

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. THE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS AND SPOTTY RAIN HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP THE EDWARDS AQUIFER LEVEL ABOVE THE STAGE 3
LEVEL OF 640 FEET.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS CURRENTLY READING 647.7 FEET AS OF
NOVEMBER 17TH. THIS IS 20.0 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY
AVERAGE FOR NOVEMBER WHICH IS 667.7 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL
IS 27.0 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL OBSERVED AT THIS TIME IN NOVEMBER
2010.

THERE ARE SEVERAL STEPS CURRENTLY BEING TAKEN BY THE EDWARDS
AQUIFER AUTHORITY TO INSURE THAT EVEN IF THE AQUIFER FALLS
BELOW 640 FEET...STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS MAY NOT NEED TO BE
IMPLEMENTED IMMEDIATELY. ONCE NEW RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE
THEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 30 DAYS AFTER RISING ABOVE THE
TRIGGER LEVEL. AFTER 30 DAYS...IF THE AQUIFER LEVEL REMAINS
ABOVE THE TRIGGER LEVEL THEN RESTRICTIONS WILL BE UPDATED.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE IMPLEMENTED
THE FIRST...SECOND...THIRD AND FOURTH STAGES OF WATER
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
DECREASING WATER SUPPLIES.

AUSTIN REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...SAN MARCOS
REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS AND THE CITY OF
KERRVILLE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 4 WATER RESTRICTIONS.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND DECEMBER 1, 2011 OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY.

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:

HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:

HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:

HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):

HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):

HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:

HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

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