This week will start off very nice as we will have zonal flow aloft (west to east flow).  This typically means quiet weather with lots of sunshine and warm conditions for us.  This will hold true with sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

As we head through the work week, an upper low will dive south down the Rockies to near the 4-corners region by Wednesday afternoon.  As this system gets closer to us late on Wednesday, its going to start to increase chances of showers Wednesday and especially Wednesday night.

This low will become “cut-off” from the main jet and will basically get left behind.  This low looks to want to take its time moving east, and this means continued good rain and t-storm chances on Thursday as the low passes to the north of our area.  At the same time a surface cold front will push through the area and allow chillier air to spill in Thursday night.

Because this low is still “cut-off” from the main flow, it will slowly push eastward on Friday.  This will keep a good deal of clouds in our area and light showers will be possible as well on Friday.  The combo of Thursday’s cold front, the clouds, and showers, high temps on Friday should stay in the 50s.

With some luck the low should be far enough east that rain chances should end before the weekend starts, although I think clouds will only slowly disappear on Saturday.  Again, this will yield another cold afternoon with highs only topping off near 60.   Something I have been watching since Friday is how the longer range models have been slowing this low more and more with each run and bringing colder air with it as well.  If this low takes a more northerly track later this week, we should end up with less rain and warmer temps.  If the low travels in a more southerly track, it could extend rain chances into the weekend.  Something we will all keep our eyes on this week.  By the way, this type of low is referred to as a “cut-off low” because it is cut-off from the main upper flow.