DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN MODERATE TO TO EXTREME DROUGHT
STATUS...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE NEARLY BEEN
ELIMINATED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WETTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
FROM NOW THROUGH JUNE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE IMPROVEMENTS IN LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...THUS REDUCING
THE LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE LA NINA
PATTERN TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO AN ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN BY THE END OF APRIL 2012. WITH AN
ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN EXPECTED WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE
TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 3RD AND ISSUED ON APRIL
5TH...SHOWED MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN
MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY NORTHEAST TO
KERR COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY REMAIN IN EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT STATUS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FROM AUSTIN TO SAN ANTONIO IS NOW IN ABNORMALLY DRY STATUS
(D0). CALDWELL...LEE AND BASTROP COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT OF ANY
DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION. AS WE SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THEN MORE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY.

 

CURRENTLY 53 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). ONLY 14 PERCENT OF THE STATE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS. THERE ARE LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
JUST EAST OF I-35 BETWEEN GEORGETOWN AND SAN MARCOS WHERE DROUGHT IS
NO LONGER A PROBLEM. AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
STATE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE NOTED IN THE THE DROUGHT SEVERITY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE. AS OF APRIL 5TH...BURN
BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KARNES...KINNEY...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...UVALDE...VAL VERDE AND ZAVALA COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES HAVE
LIFTED THEIR BURN BANS.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO CONDUCT
ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.



THE APRIL 5TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI VALUES
RANGED FROM ZERO TO 300 ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. VALUES OF 300 TO 500 WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. VAL VERDE COUNTY HAS VALUES OF
500 TO 600.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON APRIL 3 2012 INDICATED...SHOWERS BROUGHT
FURTHER DROUGHT RELIEF TO PASTURES AND RANGELAND. HOWEVER...
UVALDE COUNTY CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS.
THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS IMPROVING. SPRING PLANTING WAS IN
FULL SWING. FARMERS WERE FERTILIZING AND SPRAYING FOR WEEDS
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

MARCH WAS THE FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW WITH WETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. THESE WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED TO IMPROVE BOTH
THE SHIRT TERM AND LONG TERM DROUGHT STATUS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2012 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 4, 2012 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2012      NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      13.29        7.25        +6.04         183%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  16.34        7.38        +8.96         221%
SAN ANTONIO       12.86        6.09        +6.77         211%
DEL RIO            3.01        2.90        +0.11         104%

FOR MARCH...DEL RIO RECEIVED RECEIVED 1.31 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
WAS 0.17 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.14 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 67.7 DEGREES. THIS WAS 3.6 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 64.1 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS WAS 0.93 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.31 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH WAS
66.4 DEGREES. THIS WAS 4.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 62.2 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN MABRY RECEIVED 5.47 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 2.71
INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.76 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH AT AUSTIN MABRY WAS 66.1 DEGREES. THIS WAS 4.4 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 61.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 5.11 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS WAS 2.60 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.51 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS
64.8 DEGREES. THIS WAS 5.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 59.2 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEK OF APRIL 9TH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON APRIL 4TH AND VALID APRIL 12TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH 2012
IS TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

NO CLEAR TRENDS WERE SEEN FOR NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2012 THROUGH JUNE 2012...
CREATED ON MARCH 15TH IS TRENDING TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO CLEAR TRENDS FOR BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL OR NORMAL RAINFALL. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED
ON APRIL 19TH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

WITH THE RECENT WET PATTERN AND LOW EVAPORATION RATES MOST
LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW INCREASES IN
LEVELS DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. MOST OF THE RIVERS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE
TO SEE BETTER FLOWS.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN THESE ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENTS AS
LAKES AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASES WITH EACH
RAINFALL EVENT.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT
(NORMAL) RANGE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 29TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
POOL ELEVATIONS. ALL LAKE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AS THE WET
PATTERN CONTINUES. LAKE GEORGETOWN HAS ACTUALLY REACHED POOL
LEVEL AGAIN. LAKE AMISTAD IS THE ONLY LAKE TO CONTINUE
TO SEE LEVELS DECREASE (THIS IS DUE TO WATER BEING USED FOR
HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION).

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2           1014.02           -50.2
CANYON LAKE         909              902.29            -6.7
LAKE TRAVIS         681              640.82           -40.2
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              996.51           -23.5
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              792.08           +1.08
LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1096.55           -20.5

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) HAS RECENTLY DROPPED
MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS. THE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
AND THE MORE FREQUENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE
EDWARDS AQUIFER LEVEL FROM FALLING BELOW 660 FEET.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS CURRENTLY READING 664.3 FEET AS OF
APRIL 5TH. THIS IS 3.5 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY
AVERAGE FOR APRIL WHICH IS 667.8 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL
IS 7.3 FEET ABOVE THE LEVEL OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN
APRIL 2011.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECENTLY
DROPPED BACK ON THE STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LESS
USE AND MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL. THE STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS RETURN.

THE BARTON SPRINGS HAVE SEEN STEADY RECHARGE OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. BARTON SPRINGS HAS NOW DECLARED NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR
AQUIFERS WITHIN THE DISTRICT.

AUSTIN REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS AND THE THE CITY OF
KERRVILLE IS NOW IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL CITIES
CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AT ANY
TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.