Smoke from Mexico to arrive Saturday

April 27th, 2012 at 1:55 pm by under Weather

  Smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America is expected to increase across Texas this weekend.  While the concentration will be light, it may be enough to decrease our air quality from the “good” to “moderate” category.  Notice in the graphic below, smoke (in blue) is expected to spread across much of the state by Saturday evening.

Projected Smoke Coverage (in blue) at 7 p.m. Saturday

Here’s the Air Quality Forecast from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality:

Friday 04/27/12
Winds should be strong enough to generate blowing dust in parts of the Panhandle and could possibly raise the daily PM10 AQI into the “Moderate” range in the Lubbock area, with highest concentrations from late morning into the early evening. Satellite imagery indicates light amounts of smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America moving into the Texas coast this morning but surface concentrations do not appear to be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the “Good” range. Elsewhere in the state, moderate to strong winds and low incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Saturday 04/28/12
Smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should increase in South Texas where the daily PM2.5 AQI could possibly reach “Moderate” levels and the smoke will likely spread rapidly northward and northwestward into Central and Southwest Texas in the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range. 

Sunday 04/29/12 Outlook
Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should cover much of the middle of the state and will likely spread into Northwest Texas to mainly along and east of a line from Big Bend to Pecos to Dalhart and along and west of a line from Port Lavaca to Sherman and fine particulate could possibly reach “Moderate” levels in portions of this area, with highest concentrations most likely in South, Central, and Southwest Texas. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Monday 04/30/12 Outlook
Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should continue over much of the middle of the state mainly along and east of a line from Big Bend to Lubbock to Pampa and along and west of a line from Port Lavaca to Sherman and fine particulate could possibly reach “Moderate” levels in portions of this area, with highest concentrations most likely in South, Central, and Southwest Texas. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Tuesday 05/01/12 Extended Outlook
Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should continue over much of the middle of the state mainly along and east of a line from Big Bend to Odessa to Childress and along and west of a line from Port Lavaca to Sherman and fine particulate could possibly reach “Moderate” levels in portions of this area, with highest concentrations most likely in South, Central, and Southwest Texas. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

For a rough estimate of smoke concentrations over Texas through the entire forecast period, see the NRL Aerosol Model Forecasts.


*Regardless of our forecast, we always recommend that each individual determine what level of activity they should conduct based on the actual local conditions.

 

 

3 Responses to “Smoke from Mexico to arrive Saturday”

  1. Mary B says:

    Thanks for providing this information. I have asthma, and I know the smoke comes up every year in May. Your mentioning it on the news makes it possible for me to be proactive in preventing a flare-up. I wish you would give us progress reports on the news every evening though!

  2. Monica says:

    Reading the agricultural fires news, it comes to my mind that maybe the smoke is actually getting worse or the source is the volcano in Central Mexico name popocatepletl that in resent weeks has been super active. Can you investigate more or see if there’s ashes in that called “smoke”.
    Thanks

  3. Hi, Jim. You may have answered this question somewhere else, and I might have missed it. I have noticed, almost daily of late (at least some point during the day), what I would call “Lonesome Dove Winds,” which seem just as ominous and ground parching as last year. I am so grateful for the rain we got during the winter, but am I correct in foreboding another summer like last year if the ground is dried out enough? Thanks.