NOAA released their 2012 Atlantic hurricane forecast Thursday. They’re called for a near-normal season, which starts in early June. We’ve already seen our first named storm, Alberto, and now there’s a good chance for another round of development near Florida this weekend.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.  WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

(more…)

Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year

Hurricane Katrina - August 28, 2005

Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.

 For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. (more…)

Just in time for Memorial Day weekend, a water safety reminder from the LCRA:

This week is National Safe Boating Week and LCRA’s Nobody’s Waterproof water safety campaign is kicking off the summer season with new public service announcements. This Memorial Day weekend, when you’re out on the water, remember to play it safe. Watch our latest PSA to find out how much more the odds are in your favor when you snap on a life jacket.

View from KXAN's Steiner Ranch Steakhouse weathernet site

Here’s a handy checklist for the next time you take a boat out.

Check  out conditions out on Lake Travis from our Steiner Ranch Steakhouse weathernet site.

The Arctic Ocean has lost more than 30 percent of its summer ice cover in the last thirty years. Scientists have long thought that climate change is to blame, but a new study provides more evidence for that idea.

(NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER NEWS)

Readers sometimes ask us, “What are the reasons behind Arctic sea ice decline?” In summer months, ice extent has declined by more than 30 percent since the start of satellite observations in 1979. But is climate change really the culprit, or could other factors be contributing?

Scientists have long suspected that the decline in summer sea ice was too strong to be caused by natural variations, such as weather patterns that cause fast changes in ice extent. Climate model simulations have shown that sea ice will decline as the Arctic gets warmer. But Arctic ice has declined faster than models predicted, raising the possibility that massive sea ice loss was caused at least in part by natural variations in weather.

This month, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany released a new study examining all the possible drivers for the observed sea ice retreat. Study lead Dirk Notz said, “There has always been the chance that we simply observed a freak encounter of unusual natural variability with very low ice cover.” (more…)

We’ve seen more than five inches of rain in Austin so far this May. That’s good news for our drought situation.

This May is the wettest since May of 2007.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

...WETTEST MAYS AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO...

AFTER THE 3RD DRIEST APRIL AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE 1871...THE 3RD DRIEST
AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM SINCE 1943...AND 6TH DRIEST APRIL AT AUSTIN MABRY
SINCE 1856...RAINFALL FOR MAY 1ST TO MAY 20TH...2012 IS ABOVE THE
MAY AVERAGE AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO...AND SAN ANTONIO. 

AT SAN ANTONIO THE 9.84 INCHES OF RAIN FROM MAY 1ST TO 20TH MAKES
MAY 2012 SO FAR THE 5TH WETTEST MAY SINCE 1871.  MAY 2012 IS THE 
WETTEST MAY AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE MAY 1993...WHEN 12.47 INCHES OF 
RAIN FELL. THE WETTEST MAYS AT SAN ANTONIO FROM 1871 TO 2011 ARE
LISTED BELOW.

WETTEST MAYS AT SAN ANTONIO FROM 1871 TO 2011

1. 14.07 - 1935    6. 8.18 - 1965
2. 12.85 - 1987    7. 8.15 - 1992
3. 12.47 - 1993    8. 7.92 - 1885
4. 11.24 - 1972    9. 7.73 - 1929
5.  8.22 - 1957   10. 7.68 - 1937

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Quite a weekend in the weather department, which is hard to believe given the fact we had such nice weather locally.  Its true, not a lot happened around our area, except for some pleasant outdoor weather.  This set us up for a great view of the Solar Eclipse this (Sunday) evening.  We didn’t get the full view to see the “ring of fire” where the Moon is completely in front of the Sun and just the ring of sunlight is around the Moon.  The main reason we didn’t see the ring was because sunset occurred in our area before they could line up in our sky.   That did not prevent a lot of viewers from sending in beautiful photos of the Solar Eclipse in our area.  http://interactives.kxan.com/photomojo/gallery/preview/2866/1/solar-eclipse/solar-eclipse/    We showed about a dozen and a half on air between the 9pm and 10pm shows on Sunday night.

Also this weekend we had our first Tropical Storm in the Atlantic Basin form.  I know what you are thinking… that’s early, right?  It is, but not unheard of.  Even though the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season isn’t for a few more weeks (June 1), we can have storms before and even well after the end of the season (Nov. 30).  This was the earliest storm we have had since Tropical Storm Ana back in 2003.  Now in the Eastern Pacific basin we have already seen Tropical Storm Aletta come and go, and now Tropical Depression Two-E has formed.  According to the National Hurricane Center, this is the first time that a storm has formed before the official start of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.  This doesn’t mean that we will be seeing an active season, as the forecast from the folks at Colorado State, still has a below normal season with 10 tropical storms expected, 4 of which will become hurricanes, and 2 of those becoming a major hurricane.  They will have an updated forecast out in the next few weeks.

Below is the current stats for Alberto, and its forecast track.

See David Mazza’s blog entry below for additional local information on the solar eclipse, visible early Sunday evening. Here are a couple of  links you might find useful:

Click here for an interactive eclipse map.

Click here for tips on safely photographing the eclipse.

Click here for eclipse watching tips.

Source SPACE.com: All about our solar system, outer space and exploration

Description of the 2012 Annular Solar Eclipse (more…)

This weekend we will get a partial view of a solar eclipse here in Central Texas.  On Sunday late afternoon/evening the Moon will pass between the Sun and the Earth.  The Annular Solar Eclipse will occur in a small corridor from Asia, through the Northern Pacific, and into the Western United States.  The area that will see the best Eclipse will be in Eastern Asia, and then over parts of the Pacific Ocean.  It will still be possible to see part of the eclipse in our area, according to tables from the NASA website, the start will be around 7:35pm on Sunday, and will end at sunset.  According to the site, the peak will occur at sunset, and because of the angle, there might be some oval shaping to the shadow the Moon will cast onto the Sun.  If you were looking to see the full ring of the Eclipse, spots between Lubbock over to Santa Fe will have the best chances near-by.  In Lubbock the start will occur at 7:31pm local time, with a max eclipse at 8:36pm lasting 4min 13 seconds.  In Santa Fe, the eclipse will start at 6:28pm local time, with a max peak at 7:35pm lasting for 3min and 33 seconds.  This means that in both Lubbock, and Santa Fe, you will be able to see the ring of sunlight around the moon at the peak, and then as the moon is moving “through” the sun, the sun will set, so you will not see complete separation of the two before the sun goes down.

Below is an image of the track of the eclipse on the Earth (thanks to NASA GSFC for the image)

Anytime you want to view a solar eclipse, partial, total, whatever, you do NOT want to look directly at it.  While the sun might not seem as bright due to a large amount of it being covered, the exposed part is just as strong.  However, it appears much easier to stare as the sun, and this can cause damage to your vision if you aren’t viewing it with the proper protection.  An easy way to look other than watching the newscast Sunday night at 10pm, when we show pictures and videos of the event, is to make a crude viewing device.  One way it so take a sheet of paper, poke a round hole in it, and keep it a few feet from the ground.  The sun will shine through the hole, and you should be able to see the eclipse in the shadow on the ground.  You can almost make an eclipse box.  You take a big enough box (if you want to have your head it in make sure its big enough to fit your head without blocking the sunlight passing through).  On one side of the box, poke a round hole in it.  You can use a pen or pencil for this.  Aim this part of the box up at the sun, and look at the inside opposite side of the box.  Before the eclipse you will see the small dot of the sun.  During the eclipse you will see that dot having a shadow (from the moon) blocking part of the bright dot.  Whatever you chose to do, make sure to use lots of caution, do not stand near a street or somewhere you can get hurt wearing a box on your head.

Below is a picture of how easy it was to make my Solar Eclipse box,  and the other shows what is might look like inside the box.  I used a studio light in place of the sun, but you get the idea.  The best part of the box is it can be reused for future eclipse events, or if you chose so, you can recycle it!  :)