First off, I am not getting too excited yet, but several forecast models are developing an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche or into the Gulf of Mexico late next work week and into the weekend.  The reason I say I am not getting to excited yet, it a LOT of things can change between now and then.  Also, the models are differing on how strong this system will get, and the exact track.  The track is quite an important feature if the low does form, because it can mean the difference in getting well needed rainfall, or getting bone dry, hot air.  As of now I think if the low does form, that we will be on the dry side of this system on Friday with more of a northerly flow.  With drier air in place this time of the year, we might get lucky and get a comfortable start to the day, but in the afternoon we are going to see hot temperatures.  While a weak tropical storm might not seem like a bad thing, especially given how are away we are from the coast, we have to be careful what we wish for.  Remember  just a few years back when Tropical Storm Hermine came through the area.  It did produce some tropical storm forced winds, but the rainfall was too much, too quickly.  Camp Mabry picked up more than 7.5″ of rain in a two day period, with most of the metro picking up between 6-12″ of rainfall.  Some isolated areas picked up more than 15″ of rainfall from the event in Williamson County.   Tropical storms can produce amazing rainfall amounts when they move inland, especially when they stall out, or make sharp turns.  Another case to look at was back in 1979 when Tropical Storm Claudette came ashore near Houston, went inland, stalled, weakened, and then moved on.  It dumped between 30-43″ of rainfall in a 24 hour period!!  That’s right, 24 hour rainfall totals were recorded in a 2.5-3.5 FOOT range between Freeport and Alvin, Texas.  There were reports of almost 4 foot totals near Alvin by the time the storm moved on.

So I am in no way wishing away rainfall to our area, we just need good moderate amounts of rainfall, vs a deluge.  We will be closely monitoring this *possible* system late into next week.  If it does follow some of the models and goes into Mexico, then it will just be muggy and warm late next weekend.  If it follows a more northerly track, well then we could get some rainfall for the first full week of summer.

Below is the GFS forecast model graphic for 7am next Saturday morning.    You can see the low about 200 miles southeast of Brownsville, with all the moisture in the Gulf, and the dry air over Texas.   Hopefully this low comes inland, and the only damage is does, is to the current drought here in the state.