Tropical Storm Debby formsJune 23rd, 2012 at 10:09 pm by David Mazza under Weather
The latest advisory has been issued (#2) on Tropical Storm Debbie. The winds are at 50mph with the storm and it is not moving at this time. The majority of the moisture with Debby is in the eastern half of the storm, pounding the state of Florida with rain. There have been some Tropical Storm Warnings issued for the northern Gulf coast in Louisiana as the storm is only about 210 miles south. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has about a day of northerly movement, and then a turn to due west. If this does pan out, that would take the storm into the Lower Texas Coast late next work week. However, as you can see below the forecast models are really all over the place on where this storm will go over the next 5 days. The one thing that is consistent is the northerly movement through tomorrow. The white line is the official NHC forecast.
The forecast track from the Hurricane Center assumes a ridge to the north will steer the storm mainly west heading through the work week. The intensity forecast also shows Debby becoming a Category 1 strength hurricane by Tuesday as it enters a more favorable environment with much less wind shear.
Since the path of the storm is still more than 100 hours out from the Texas coast, I have put together some graphics to give you an idea of what to expect from Debby based on the eventual track.
If the storm follows the track above, the impact on us would be very hot and dry weather, with a north to northwesterly dry flow.
The path above shaded in green would produce our best chances of rain and thunderstorms. This also would bring the threat of heavy rainfall, gusty winds (especially if it becomes a hurricane), and isolated weak tornadoes.
The more southern plot above could produce more of an easterly wind, which would increase our muggy factor, but give us no more than a few isolated showers or a t-storm or two. Remember Dolly a few years ago?
We will continue to monitor and track this storm throughout the weekend and the work week. In the short term, temps are going to ramp back up into the 100s, so make sure you drink lots of water, wear that light weight, light colored clothing, and take it east outside.