After a quick start to the Atlantic hurricane season, it’s been a very quiet July.

Here’s the latest monthly summary from the National Hurricane Center:

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR AVERAGE FROM 1981 TO 2010...ABOUT ONE
NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN JULY.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
UNUSUAL TO HAVE NO TROPICAL STORMS DEVELOP DURING JULY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE 1981-2010
AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
TS ALBERTO          19-22 MAY         60
TS BERYL            26-30 MAY         70
H  CHRIS            19-22 JUN         75
TS DEBBY            23-27 JUN         60
---------------------------------------------------       

We’re finally starting to see more activity. There’s a tropical wave just east of South America and it has a decent chance at developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. Forecasting models take it into the Caribbean. We, of course, will be keeping a close eye on it also through the end of the week.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.