DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
129 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS REMAIN IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION HAS SEEN VERY MINIMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF
JULY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH. THE OUTLOOK FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT LOOKING PROMISING.
LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING TOWARDS EQUAL CHANCES
FOR NEAR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT FEW MONTHS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS CALLING FOR AN ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) WEAK EL NINO TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
THE EL NINO PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE FALL AND
WINTER. WITH THE DEVELOPING EL NINO PATTERN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE A MORE TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN GOING INTO EARLY
FALL...THEN A WETTER PATTERN FOR LATE FALL AND INTO WINTER.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID AUGUST 7TH AND ISSUED ON
AUGUST 9TH SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE WORSE
DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS.

 
CURRENTLY 75 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). WE NOW HAVE ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE
BACK IN EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE. AS OF AUGUST 9...BURN
BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 16 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE BEXAR...
BURNET...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KARNES...KINNEY...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON AND ZAVALA COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...CALDWELL...
DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...REAL...AND
WILSON COUNTIES HAVE LIFTED THEIR BURN BANS.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO CONDUCT
ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE AUGUST 9 KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI VALUES
RANGED FROM 400 TO 500 IN A FEW COUNTIES...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SEEING VALUES OF 500 TO 700.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON AUGUST 7TH INDICATED...TYPICAL HOT TEMPERATURES
PREVAILED...AND THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO RAIN. PASTURES THAT WERE
GREEN A WEEK AGO ARE NOW BROWN WITH NO GROWTH. THE CORN...SORGHUM
AND MILO HARVESTS WERE NEARLY OVER WITH GOOD YIELDS REPORTED.
COTTON WAS OPENING BOLLS. IRRIGATED FORAGES MADE GOOD PROGRESS.
THE PECAN CROP WAS HEAVY...AND PRODUCERS WERE SHAKING TREES TO
REDUCE NUT LOAD ON LIMBS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AUGUST HAS BEGUN ON A DRY NOTE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2012 TO MIDNIGHT AUGUST 8, 2012 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2012      NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       24.76      20.16       +4.62         123%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   25.68      19.27       +6.41         133%
SAN ANTONIO        26.64      19.23       +7.41         139%
DEL RIO             9.71      11.69       -1.98          83%

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAINFALL. THIS IS
0.36 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.36 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 91.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.2 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 87.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.38 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF
AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 87.4 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.4 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 86.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS
0.48 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.48 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 87.6 DEGREES.
THIS IS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 86.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS 0.39 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF
0.39 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST TO DATE AT
THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 85.4 DEGREES.
THIS IS 1.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 84.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AUGUST 16TH WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED AUGUST 8TH AND VALID AUGUST 16TH THROUGH AUGUST 22ND IS
SHOWING STRONGER TRENDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THE OUTLOOKS ARE INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NO STRONG TRENDS FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2012 THROUGH NOVEMBER
2012...CREATED ON JULY 19TH IS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED
AGAIN ON AUGUST 16TH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECLINE.
WHEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED THEN LEVELS COULD ONCE
AGAIN SHOW IMPROVEMENTS. WITHOUT RAINFALL...HIGH EVAPORATION
RATES WILL CAUSE FURTHER DECLINES IN THESE LEVELS.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY SHORT AND LONG TERM
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES ARE SHOWING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) FLOWS ACROSS THE UPPER GUADALUPE AND
LOWER COLORADO BASINS. THE LOWER GUADALUPE...SAN ANTONIO AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS  WERE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL (10 TO 24 PERCENT)
FLOWS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASINS ACROSS THE REGION WERE SHOWING
FLOWS IN THE NORMAL RANGE (25 TO 75 PERCENT).

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 9TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS. LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO FALL AGAIN DUE TO
REDUCED INFLOWS AND HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2           1003.5           -60.7
CANYON LAKE         909              903.1            -5.9
LAKE TRAVIS         681              638.3           -42.7
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              995.7           -24.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              781.6            -9.4
LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1091.4           -25.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. ONCE A RESTRICTION IS IN PLACE...THAT RESTRICTION
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR 30 DAYS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AQUIFER LEVEL.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 639.6 FEET AS OF AUGUST 9TH. THIS
IS 19.2 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR AUGUST WHICH
IS 658.8 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL IS 2.5 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL
OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN AUGUST 2011.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL
AND INCREASED USAGE. STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED
AT ANY TIME IF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS REMAIN IN NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR AQUIFERS
WITHIN THE DISTRICT.

UVALDE REMAINS IN STAGE 4 WATER RESTRICTIONS. SAN MARCOS IS
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN AND KERRVILLE ARE
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO
WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AT ANY
TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:

HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:

HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:

HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):

HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):

HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:

HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV