The developing El Nino conditions (warmer than average water in the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean) usually mean a wetter, cooler-than-average fall and winter season for folks here in central Texas.

The weather picture as of this morning. An upper-level low pressure system is combining with Pacific moisture to bring us widespread showers and thunderstorms.

The weather picture this morning depicts a strong upper-level low pressure system that has moved fairly far south for this time of year.  During El Nino conditions, it is typical that storms take a more southerly track – as this one is doing.

Does this mean we can attribute today’s widespread rainfall to El Nino?

Not quite.. the El Nino conditions are still in the “developing” phase and are not yet fully-established.  Additionally, meteorologists are usually hesitant to attribute any specific event to a much broader pattern change like El Nino, seeing as storms can happen for a multitude of other reasons.

What we can say, however, is that if the El Nino pattern unfolds as predicted over the next couple of months, we can expect to enjoy many more days of beneficial rainfall through the fall and winter.

Predicted rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. Notice most of central Texas is expected to get 1″+!
Image courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.