Major Mid-Week Storm

January 7th, 2013 at 10:31 am by under Weather

For a complete write up on what to expect from this week’s storm, look for the story on our homepage.  Here are a few graphics and details from the NWS and from our First Warning Weather Center to elaborate on what to expect:

 

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the viewing area in the slight risk area for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Here is the write up from the SPC detailing out the graphic above:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2013
  
   VALID 081200Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX…
  
   …SOUTH TX…
  
   SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND
   EJECT TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   IN FACT IT APPEARS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL NOT SPREAD INTO DEEP SOUTH
   TX UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
   RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
   LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
  
   CURRENT THINKING IS MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT TO
   MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT FAVORABLE SELY TRAJECTORIES
   OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW
   POINTS TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TX AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD.
   WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT IN THEIR TIMING OF PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO SOUTH TX THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD
   ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR.  AFTER 00Z THE SUPERCELL
   THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX BEGINS TO ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION.  FORECAST PROFILES EXHIBIT
   VERY STRONG SHEAR WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AND NEAR-SFC
   BASED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  ADDITIONALLY…A SQUALL LINE MAY
   ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
   TOWARD THE LOWER TX COAST BY DAYBREAK.  DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
   EVEN SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

 

Here is the “Special Weather Statement” released by the National Weather Service on Monday morning:

…RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY TO NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM INDICATES
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 6 INCHES…COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

 

Here is a graphical outlook on what to expect from the storm through Thursday morning:

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