Thursday PM Storms Possible…May 8th, 2013 at 8:34 am by markmonstrola under Weather
An unstable weather pattern will develop over the Southwestern US, leaving a series of weak disturbances aloft to pass across South Central Texas late this week. The first round of thunderstorms expected from this pattern should tap into afternoon heating on Thursday, resulting in a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms that could extend well into Thursday night. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main severe threats. The unstable pattern is expected to continue into Friday and possibly into Saturday as remnant outflow boundaries promote an additional focus for thunderstorm development. Rain chances may be further enhanced if a weak frontal boundary moves south from North Texas.
Here is the latest write-up from the Storm Prediction Center:
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK...INVOF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A FEW SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL EVENTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY RELATIVELY EARLY IN EPISODE WHEN STRONGEST /DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES ARE MOST PROBABLE. STEEP/EML-RELATED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...60S F MOIST-SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS AND AFTN DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STG PRE-CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE COMMONLY 2000-3000 J/KG AND UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.