Drought update

June 13th, 2013 at 4:35 pm by under Weather

Isolated storms developed again Thursday. Some south of Austin dropped pretty heavy rain as they moved across Hays, Blanco and Gillespie counties.

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As an upper level low moves north across west Texas through Friday, there is heavy rain potential to our southwest.

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It’s rain we can use, though just isolated storms are possible in Central Texas through Saturday. Recent rains have helped our drought situation. Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released today and an update from the NWS.

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET MAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...THE WETTER PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED INTO JUNE. JUNE IS TYPICALLY THE WETTEST MONTH IN MANY
LOCATIONS AND FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE
PATTERN DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE SO THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THIS WETTER PATTERN HAS
HELPED TO ERASE MANY OF THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE AS THE SOILS DRY OUT
FAIRLY RAPIDLY DUE THE LONG TERM DRYNESS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
RIVERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT WAY UNTIL A PROLONGED WET PERIOD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CURRENT LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS IS
SHOWING STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE
HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE
LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 11TH AND ISSUED ON JUNE
13TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVEMENTS DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS CURRENTLY IN
MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 84 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). FIFTEEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL CONTINUES ON
A REGULAR FREQUENCY...THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

AS OF JUNE 13TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS
INCLUDE BEXAR...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KARNES...KINNEY...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...VAL VERDE AND WILSON COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE
NO BURN BANS IN PLACE.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE JUNE 13TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI
VALUES OF ZERO TO 300 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND
400 TO 700 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON JUNE 11TH INDICATED RECENT RAINS AND FAVORABLE
WEATHER IMPROVED THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK...RANGELAND AND ROW
CROPS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ALTHOUGH RAIN TOTALS
VARIED...GENERALLY THERE WAS ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE
FOR GRASS AND CROP GROWTH. WHEAT AND OATS WERE STILL BEING
HARVESTED. SOME OF THE LATER PEACHES THAT SURVIVED THE FREEZES
WERE RIPENING. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING...MORE PRECIPITATION WAS
NEEDED TO MAINTAIN SOIL-MOISTURE LEVELS AND FURTHER PROMOTE
DROUGHT RECOVERY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2013 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 12, 2013 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2013       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       13.89       15.53        -1.64         89%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   15.52       13.65        +1.87        114%
SAN ANTONIO        21.09       13.67        +7.42        154%
DEL RIO             3.57        8.27        -4.70         43%

FOR JUNE TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.35 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
THIS IS 0.72 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.07 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 85.6 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.5 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.1 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
1.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.45 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF
1.70 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 81.0 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.5 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 81.5 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.21 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 1.79 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.00 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 81.9 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.9 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.0 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.14 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.46 INCHES BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 1.60 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 79.7 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.2 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 79.9 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE WETTER PATTERN THAT BEGAN IN MAY WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE MORE DAYS...BEFORE A DRIER PATTERN RETURNS. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JUNE 12 AND VALID JUNE 20 THROUGH JUNE 26 2013 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2013 THROUGH SEPTEMBER
2013...CREATED ON MAY 16TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JUNE 20 2013.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE ERASED YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL
DEFICITS ACROSS MANY AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER A PERIOD
OF WET CONDITIONS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE LATER INTO
JUNE. LAKE LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHORT TERM
IMPACTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN DROUGHT
IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE THE LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO BASIN. THE RIO GRANDE...
GUADALUPE...FRIO AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10 TO
24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO BASIN REPORTED NORMAL (25 TO 75
PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 13TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1056.8           -60.2
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            981.9           -82.3
CANYON LAKE         909              899.9            -9.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              777.6           -13.4
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              990.2           -29.8
LAKE TRAVIS         681              628.6           -52.4

MEDINA LAKE CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY AT 5.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
THE SURFACE AREA WAS 854 ACRES. THIS DATA WAS CURRENT AS OF JUNE
13,2013.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE THE RECENT RECOVERY OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER. THIS DECISION
IS DUE TO SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINING DRY AND NOT RECEIVING THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 652.5 FEET AS OF JUNE 13TH. THIS
WAS 10.5 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR JUNE WHICH
IS 663.0 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL WAS 5.3 FEET ABOVE THE LEVEL
OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN JUNE 2012.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT REMAINS
IN STAGE 3 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS.

UVALDE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 5 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN IS
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. KERRVILLE...SAN MARCOS
AND SEGUIN ARE CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL
CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

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