Possible tropical activity / Texas impact late next week

June 15th, 2013 at 10:11 am by under Weather

Although forecast uncertainty is high when we look 7 days into the future, computer models have been fairly consistent in organizing a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico late next week into weekend, then turning it towards south Texas.

If this disturbance does materialize into a named storm (and no other disturbances beat it to the punch), it would become Tropical Storm Barry.

The GFS model's sea level pressure prediction for next Thursday evening (look at the low pressure area west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula in the western Gulf of Mexico)

The GFS model’s sea level pressure prediction for next Thursday evening (look at the low pressure area west of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula in the western Gulf of Mexico)

Several computer models form an area of low pressure late next week in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Notice the concentrated, tight area of low pressure on the above GFS model-prediction. This is indicative of a closed circulation and the possible development of a tropical system.

The European forecast model shows the disturbance over south Texas next Sunday night

The European forecast model shows the disturbance over south Texas next Sunday night

The ECMWF (European model) has been well-known as of late for its accuracy in tropical prediction.

As shown above, the European forecast model takes the low pressure system along with its heavy rains (shown as colors) and moderate, circulating winds (shown as arrows) inland from the south Texas coast into central Texas Sunday evening.

With that said, it is too far in advance to say with any certainty whether Texas will be impacted by a tropical system late next week into next weekend. But as the situation unfolds, count on the First Warning Weather team to keep you ahead of the storm.

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