Drought Worsens Again

June 28th, 2013 at 12:24 pm by under Weather

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday shows expanding severe and extreme drought over Central Texas. May’s rain brought temporary relief but a dry June reversed our progress. We’re behind nearly three and a half inches in Austin at Camp Mabry.

tx_dm

Here’s more from the NWS:


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...AFTER A FEW WEEKS OF DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT...THIS WEEK SAW DROUGHT
 CONDITIONS WORSEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET FIRST HALF OF JUNE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE GONE A WEEK OR
MORE WITHOUT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LACK OF RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS CAUSED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
TO GET WORSE ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THIS DRIER PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AND A WETTER PATTERN MAY BE BACK JUST IN TIME FOR THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY. THE WETTER PATTERN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING
THE SPRING HAS HELPED TO ERASE MANY OF THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE AS THE SOILS
DRY OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY DUE THE LONG TERM DRYNESS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. RIVERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTIL A PROLONGED WET PERIOD DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8
TO 14 DAYS IS SHOWING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE
AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE
HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE
LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 25TH AND ISSUED ON JUNE
27TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE. MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN
EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS.

CURRENTLY 84 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). ELEVEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL CONTINUES ON A
REGULAR FREQUENCY...THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

AS OF JUNE 27TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 12 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE BEXAR...CALDWELL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...
KARNES...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...VAL VERDE AND
WILSON COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE
NO BURN BANS IN PLACE.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE JUNE 27TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI
VALUES OF 400 TO 700 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND
200 TO 500 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON JUNE 25TH INDICATED CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE WEEK BEFORE...THOUGH SOME AREAS RECEIVED
2 INCHES OF RAIN. CROPS WERE DOING WELL...PARTICULARLY IRRIGATED
CROPS...BUT EVEN MUCH OF DRYLAND CORN AND GRAIN SORGHUM WAS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A CROP...WITH SOME ABOVE-AVERAGE YIELDS PREDICTED.
HAY PRODUCERS WERE CUTTING SUDAN...KLEIN AND COASTAL BERMUDA
GRASSES. CATTLE WERE DOING WELL ON RANGELANDS WITH VERY LITTLE
SUPPLEMENTATION. GRASSHOPPERS WERE A SEVERE PROBLEM IN SOME
PASTURES AND GARDENS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAINFALL TOWARDS THE FIRST OF JULY.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2013 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 26, 2013 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2013       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       14.25       17.47        -3.22         82%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   15.58       15.82        -0.24         98%
SAN ANTONIO        21.49       15.64        +5.85        137%
DEL RIO             4.87        9.31        -4.44         52%

FOR JUNE TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.65 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THIS IS 0.46 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.11 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 85.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.2
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.9 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
1.65 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 2.02 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 3.67
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 83.3 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.0 DEGREE
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.3 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.57 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 3.37 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 3.94 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 84.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.0 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 3.57 INCHES BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 3.77 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 83.0 DEGREES.
THIS IS 2.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.8 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE WETTER PATTERN THAT BEGAN IN MAY WILL LIKELY RETURN DURING THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEK AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JUNE 26 AND VALID JULY 4 THROUGH JULY 10 2013 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER
TRENDS FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2013 THROUGH SEPTEMBER
2013...CREATED ON JUNE 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JULY 18 2013.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT WERE DECREASING ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING DUE
TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL. LAKE LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THE
EVAPORATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

WITH THE DRIER AND HOTTER PATTERN THAT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION...SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE RETURNING TO MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES AND WILL ONLY GET WORSE DUE TO INCREASED USAGE AND
HIGHER EVAPORATION RATES. THESE LONG TERM IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WE EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO BASIN. THE RIO GRANDE AND
GUADALUPE BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10 TO 24 PERCENT) FLOWS.
THE SAN ANTONIO...NUECES...AND FRIO RIVER BASINS REPORTED NORMAL
(25 TO 75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 27TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1057.9           -59.1
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            981.5           -82.7
CANYON LAKE         909              899.7            -9.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              776.6           -14.4
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              989.2           -30.8
LAKE TRAVIS         681              627.2           -53.8

MEDINA LAKE REMAINS VERY LOW AND THE LATEST DATA SHOWED THE LAKE
AT 5.3 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. THE SURFACE AREA WAS 842 ACRES. THIS
DATA WAS CURRENT AS OF JUNE 27,2013.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE THE RECENT RECOVERY OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER. THIS DECISION
IS DUE TO SURROUNDING AREAS REMAINING DRY AND NOT RECEIVING THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 646.0 FEET AS OF JUNE 27TH. THIS
WAS 17.0 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR JUNE WHICH
IS 663.0 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL WAS 4.1 FEET ABOVE THE LEVEL
OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN JUNE 2012.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT REMAINS
IN STAGE 3 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS.

UVALDE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 5 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN IS
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. KERRVILLE...SAN MARCOS
AND SEGUIN ARE CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL
CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

Comments are closed.