David Mazza

Weather recap

July 29th, 2012 at 8:46 pm by under Weather

Today we finally got to 100 again.  It has been more than a week since we last hit 1oo (a week ago Saturday), and the forecast is calling for a little mini-streak of 100′s coming up this week.  A big high is going to dominate our weather over the next week, so don’t expect much of anything from the rainfall department.  Typically this is the hottest and driest part of the entire year, so there is nothing terribly uncommon about this.  In fact, if we had not gotten all the good rainfall earlier this month, temps today and the next few days would probably be closer to 105 or higher.  Today was only the 10th day that we hit 100 this year, compared to 45 days by this time last year.  We have also seen a lot more rain than we did by this time last year too.

How about the Atlantic Hurricane season?  It got off to a very quick start, but since has been very quiet.  So far we have had 3 tropical storms, and 1 hurricane this season.  Our first two tropical storms occurred before the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season, the next two in June, and now 0 (zero) in July.  Last year we had 4 tropical storms by the same point in July, with 3 of them occurring in the last 10 days of July.  Typically hurricane season starts to pick up this time of year.  Look at the chart below from the National Hurricane Center

I found some other interesting information on the Hurricane Center website that shows that historically speaking we are ahead of schedule this hurricane season.  However, I should note the building El Nino should help to keep the forecast for a near normal activity season in check.

Progress of the average Atlantic season (1966-2009). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.

Number Named systems Hurricanes Category 3 or greater
1 July 9 Aug 10 Sep 4
2 Aug 1 Aug 28 Oct 3
3 Aug 13 Sep 9 -
4 Aug 23 Sep 21 -
5 Aug 31 Oct 7 -
6 Sep 8 Nov 23 -
7 Sep 16 - -
8 Sep 24 - -
9 Oct 4 - -
10 Oct 19 - -
11 Nov 23 - -

 

Back to our weather at home….. Clearly the heat ridge over our area is going to be impacting our area past the current forecast cycle of the next 7 days.  Below are images from the Climate Prediction Center, which show much above normal temps for much of the country for the next couple of weeks.  Below are the forecast graphics for days 8-14 in the forecast (Monday 8/6 – Sunday 8/12).


Getting hotter, and dustier?

July 28th, 2012 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

July is finishing on a strong note in the temperature department as we look to send the month off on a streak of 100 degree days.  We should feel quite lucky however, at this point we were in the middle of a streak of 27 days in a row of 100+ degree heat from Mid July 2011 to Mid August 2011.  So far for 2012 we have only had 9 days of 100+ degree heat, compared to the 44 we had at this point last year.

Month 2012 2011
May 0 3
June 6 15
Jul (1-28) 3 26
Total 9 44

Through today, the average high temp in July is 95.8, and the average low is 74.1.  The average for the month of July though today is 84.98 or 85.0 when rounded which makes our monthly departure from normal 0.0   Which means July 2012 has been completely normal.  However, with a trio of warm days left in the month, we will probably finish the month 0.1-0.2 degrees above normal.  For the record, July 2011 averaged 5.5 degrees above normal, with highs averaging 102.1 and lows at 77.2.

As far as the hazyness in the sky… well we can thank some of the African Dust on that.  According to the TCEQ the Air Quality will be in the moderate range the next few days here in Austin and Central Texas.  Below is the forecast for the next few days from the TCEQ.

Sunday 07/29/12 Outlook
African dust will continue to cover most of the state with “Moderate” PM2.5 levels. Fine particulate levels may begin to drop in the afternoon and evening in South Texas as the dust cloud moves north out of the area, though the daily PM2.5 AQI will probably remain at the low end of the “Moderate” range as another dust cloud approaches the coast. Winds may be light enough and background levels high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels on the east and northeast side of the Houston area, on the north and northeast side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, and in parts of Northeast Texas, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening. Elsewhere in far West Texas, moderate winds, low incoming background levels, and heavy cloud cover should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Monday 07/30/12 Outlook
The African dust cloud should begin to clear the state as it moves northward, resulting in decreasing fine particulate in the northern half of the state. Lingering dust and another dust cloud moving into South Texas should keep PM2.5 levels at “Moderate” for the day over parts of South, South Central, and Southeast Texas, especially along the coast. Winds may be light enough and background levels high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels on the east side of the Houston area, on the north and northeast side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in the Beaumont-Port Arthur and El Paso areas, and in parts of Northeast Texas, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and low incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Tuesday 07/31/12 Extended Outlook
Winds may be light enough and background levels high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels on the east and northeast sides of the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas, in the Beaumont-Port Arthur and El Paso areas, and in parts of Northeast Texas, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening. An African dust cloud with “Moderate” PM2.5 levels should continue to impact South Texas, especially along the coast. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and low incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

The Naval Research Lab does Aerosol modeling just like we have forecast models for rain and clouds.  This model gives a good glimpse of where the African Dust is right now.  Based on this model it appears that the dust will remain in the area through much of the week but slowly thin out by late week into next weekend.  This is helped out by the fact that a high is going to be parked over our area much of the week, and we will have light winds aloft.  Late in the week the high will push west and we will start to see a bit of a north/northeast breeze on the outer edge of this high that should thin the dust a bit.

 


Drought improves locally, and just slightly

July 27th, 2012 at 11:40 am by under Weather

Another week, another little chip we took out of the drought locally.  It wasn’t a huge difference week to week, but then again most of the area saw little to no rainfall over the past week, and the conditions seemed to improve.  Clearly, seeing almost 4″ at ABIA and almost 6″ at Camp Mabry during what typically is our driest month helps.  As it stands, we are still about 4.2″ above normal at Mabry, and with no more rain in the July forecast, we will still finish around 4″ above normal.  Below is a comparison image taken from the US Drought Monitor website, comparing the last week’s image on the left (7/17/2012) vs. the current image on the right (7/24/2012).  *click on image for full screen*

The yellow color represents the “D0- abnormally dry” drought condition, the best drought status.  This has taken over much of our area from along I-35 and east.  The exceptions are in Williamson and Milam counties.  Most of the rest of our area is under a “D1- Moderate” drought, shaded in a light orange or peach color.  This is quite an improvement, especially in Burnet and Blanco counties, which last week were almost entirely a category worse.  The darker orange color represents the “D2- Severe” drought.  You can see a little pocket of that in North-Central/East Williamson County, and Northwest Milam county.  This area has actually shrunk from last week, when almost all of Williamson County was covered and most of the northern half of Milam County was covered.   The only downfall in our area week to week was in Gillespie County, where the lack of above normal rainfall this month like most of the rest of our area has caused a worsening drought.  Much of the Western half of the county dropped from a “D1- Moderate” to a “D2-Severe” Drought.  The forecast calls for a high to build into the area for the next week and shut off rain chances.  Starting later in August our really dry pattern starts to shift as the seasons begin to shift.  The longer range outlooks call for near normal rainfall and temps over the next 3 months.

While gathering information on the drought’s week to week changes in our area, I thought it would be interesting to show how far we have come in a year.  Boy, its quite amazing!  While most of the country has fallen into a bad drought situation, things in Texas have GREATLY improved in the last year.

Below is an image from the US Drought Monitor website that compares the drought monitor from 7/26/2011 to 7/24/2012.  Amazing!  Especially in our area, a year ago the entire area was in a “D4- Exceptional” drought, the worst level.

Below I have posted a pick of the latest US Drought Monitor for the entire US.  Very sad news for many farmers all over the country, and sure to be something that will effect all of us when we go grocery shopping in the next few months.

NOAA has put together an interesting 13 second video clip of a map of the United States, with the drought conditions laid on top for each month of 2012.  It really shows how quickly the current drought escalated across the country.

Drought month by month 2012

 


Dog days of Summer

July 22nd, 2012 at 8:24 pm by under Weather

Its that lazy time of year, when the kiddos are squeezing out every ounce of summer break, and the days are long and hot.  Yes, its the Dog Days of Summer.  Now, unlike other ‘dog’ sayings like ‘sick as a dog’ (cause my dogs are much more healthy than I am), I do understand the Dog Days of Summer.  The time period gets its name from the stars.  Most of us are familiar with the shapes the stars appear to make, these are the constellations.  In the sky one of these constellations, Canis Major, Latin for the ‘Greater Dog’ can be seen at night containing the brightest star in the sky.  This bright star is known as Sirius.  Back in ancient times the Romans had thought that this unusually bright star, Sirius, brought extra heat to the Earth.  The hottest period of Northern Hemisphere Summer appeared to align with the conjunction of the Sun and Sirius.  In basic terms conjunction of the Sun and Sirius was the point when they were at almost the exact same location in the sky, rising at almost the same time.  The time period 20 days before and 20 days after this conjunction is considered to be the Dog Days of Summer.  Back in Ancient Roman time this period was typically from July 23rd-August 23rd (+/- day), and is still considered the Dog Days in some parts.   According to the Farmers’ Almanac, the Dog Days start on July 3rd and end on August 11th.  This might have merit too since the date of the conjunction has changed slightly over time.  Eventually the conjunction will not even occur during Summer (Dog Days of Spring?).  Anyways, one thing that is true, is that there is no proof that Sirius, the Dog Star, provides any added heat to Earth.  Now it just seems like its one of those fun phrases that we all use in the middle of Summer when its real hot, and we’re real lazy.  Because you know, when its hot, dogs are lazy :)  It also gives us Meteorologists a reason to make goofy graphics with a giant picture of dog on it… and that’s fun.

Average high temps climb tomorrow up to 97 tomorrow and will peak at 98 in the early part of August, and then begin to fall a few days after the end of the Farmers’ Almanac’s Dog Days of Summer.  If you follow the dates of the Ancient Romans… our average high is 97 or 98 during the Dog Days, or warmer than during the Farmers’ Almanac’s dates.  Either way, its hot, and really its not getting much cooler until late September, or if you take a trip away from Central Texas.


Drought conditions get better

July 21st, 2012 at 10:01 pm by under Weather

The drought monitor ending on July 10th had no change in the conditions across much of our area.  Even though some of us started to get the rainfall the Sunday and Monday before the drought monitor conditions were calculated, the levels did not change in our area.  Well fast forward a week, and include much of the heavy rainfall that fell across Central Texas in the month of July, and boy how the conditions have improved.   No longer do we have any part of our area in a D3 (extreme) drought like we did a week ago.   In fact much of the D2 (severe) drought area has been greatly reduced as well, thanks to nearly half a foot or greater of rain that fell across parts of our area.  Great news too, portions of Bastrop, Caldwell, and Lee Counties are now just considered ‘abnormally dry’ or the lowest level in the drought conditions.  Most of San Saba County, and all of Fayette County is now abnormally dry due to the rainfall last week.

Below are the latest maps from the US Drought Monitor.

This map below is from July 10th

This map below is from July 17th (the current map).

 

  • D0 - Abnormally DryD0 – Abnormally Dry
  • D1 Drought - ModerateD1 Drought – Moderate
  • D2 Drought - SevereD2 Drought – Severe
  • D3 Drought - ExtremeD3 Drought – Extreme
  • D4 Drought - ExceptionalD4 Drought – Exceptional

 


Ups and downs in a wet 2012

July 17th, 2012 at 9:00 pm by under Weather

It looks like our fairly wet month of July is going to coast to a slow down in the next few days as a ridge will be building back into the area.  Its crazy to think but at this point of the month we have seen 511% of the normal rainfall for the month.  Typically, July is our driest month at Camp Mabry, averaging only 1.88″ of rainfall for the entire month.  The most rainfall we have seen in July is 12.80″ and the least amount… none.  So our 5.82″ falls in the middle of the extremes.

Below is a graph showing rainfall for each month so far in 2012.  What’s interesting is that every other month has been wetter than normal.

If you look at the table below we are 5 for 7 this year on having at or above normal rainfall totals.  Only the very dry months of April and June were well below normal.  April was almost 10 times drier than normal, with June being almost 72 times drier than normal.  For note, June is typically one of our wettest months.  Then again, July is typically one of our driest, so we just did a little flip job on the two.

Month Rainfall Normal
Jan 4.7 2.22 212%
Feb 3.04 2.02 151%
Mar 5.47 2.76 198%
Apr 0.22 2.09 11%
May 5.45 4.36 125%
Jun 0.06 4.33 1%
Jul 5.82 1.88 310%

The good news is that typically the months of August, September, and October show a slow wetting pattern.  August averages 2.35″, September at 2.99″, and October at 3.88″.  One just has to hope that we don’t have another 2011 season.

As of today we have received 24.76″ of rain at Camp Mabry, the same time last year, we had only 9.43″.  From this date last year until the end of September, we only picked up 0.22″ of rainfall…

The forecast for the next few months calls for an increasing El Nino, which would decrease the likelihood of a repeat of last summer’s dry weather.  The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for the next 3 months calls for near normal precipitation from July-September.  I doubt this forecast included us seeing most of the rainfall in one week in July.

If the El Nino continues as forecasted over the next few months, this could mean possibly wetter than normal conditions heading into the Fall as well.

Yay for the rain!  We’ll keep hoping for more.  Lets see how much we all love this rain when we get done pulling weeds and trying to cut our thick lawns this week :)

 

 

 


Rain, rain, don’t go away!

July 14th, 2012 at 11:38 pm by under Weather

Another day, another shower and t-storm!  Yes, that’s right more showers and t-storms again for Saturday.  The heaviest rainfall came across parts of Fayette county.  La Grange picked up more than 1.5″ of rainfall today from a slow moving shower.  Tonight we saw more showers and t-storms pop-up right around sunset and as I am writing this, they are still firing in some areas.  We have some small t-storms near Round Rock, Burnet, and Cedar Park, Driftwood, Bastrop, and near Rosanky.  There is a pretty strong line of t-storms moving into far southern Hays County including San Marcos and Kyle is getting some rain as well.

What causes this rain?   Well lots of things.  Mainly we have had an upper level low that has been super slow to move out of our area the last week.  It was in Louisiana about 8+ days ago, and then drifted to the west early this week focusing the best areas of rain and t-storms near our area from Monday-Wednesday.  The upper low moved back to the east for the 2nd half of the work week and lessened our rain chances a bit.  Now this weekend the upper low is stretching out a bit and starting to move west.  One of the big issues for heavy rainfall has been the lack of air movement.  The winds have been very light from the surface on up and this has provided very little steering for most of the showers and thunderstorms, and really no push to move them.  Another issue is the remnant boundaries from the rainfall that we have see all week long are providing small focus areas for rain and thunderstorm development.  Especially when the boundaries intersect like they are doing this evening.


Keep the rain coming

July 13th, 2012 at 10:33 pm by under Weather

Another day, another day with rain falling across the area.  Most of today’s rain came east of 281, with heavier totals east of I-35.  The upper level system responsible for giving much of our area a good dose of heavier rainfall early this week will push back to the west over the weekend.  This will slightly increase our rain chances for Saturday afternoon/evening, and keep rain and t-storms in the forecast for Sunday.  It looks like after that, the upper level system will finally move far enough west and begin to fade as it moves far enough from its moisture source the Gulf.  An upper ridge will build back in next week which should end most of the rain chances.

Interesting note:  July is typically the driest month at Camp Mabry with only 1.88″ of rain on average.  As of tonight, we already have 1.88″ of rainfall this month… neat!

Below is a radar rainfall estimate from our Vipir Radar.  You can see where some of the heavier rainfall totals were, like near Jollyville.

Parts of our area saw well over half a foot of rainfall this week, for the official reporting stations, we still had some nice totals for the week.  When you consider we are in July, these rainfall totals look very nice.

 

 


Less rain, but still its rain

July 12th, 2012 at 10:03 pm by under Weather

Today proved to be one of the drier days of the week around Central Texas, but we did not go without seeing some of the wet stuff.  In fact, depending on where you live, you might have gotten quite a nice little shower today.  For folks in parts of Llano, Burnet, San Saba, Fayette, Lee, Bastrop, and even Travis counties there was some nice showers today.  Rainfall this week has been impressive across the area, especially when you consider July is typically one of our driest, and in some places the driest month of the year.  In fact, if we see 1/100th of an inch of rain the rest of the month of July at Camp Mabry, we will end the month normal for rainfall.  So far we have seen 1.87″ at Camp Mabry, normal for all of July is 1.88″.  Looking at rainfall totals from around the area, much of Austin was on the lower end of the rainfall totals.

Some of our official reporting stations rainfall totals are listed below

Giddings: 0.45″

La Grange: 0.02″

Llano: 0.41″

Below is the storm total precipitation from the radar for most of today from (12:08a-9:38p).  The areas that are in green, are 1″-2.49″, you will notice a small amount near Lake Buchanan that was more than 1″, also in our far eastern counties, and along I-10 to the southeast.

Below are rainfall totals from the LCRA sites in the Hill Country.

Buchanan

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Millersview 7 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gouldbusk 4 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lohn 3 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bangs 6 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rochelle 5 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River at Winchell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brownwood 10 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Richland Springs 11 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Richland Springs 6 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River near Goldthwaite 0.00 0.05 0.45 0.45 0.45
Clyde 6 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cross Plains 6 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pecan Bayou at Hwy 279 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
May 1 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lawn 5 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Burkett 9 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brownwood 4 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Blanket 4 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pecan Bayou near Mullin 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06
Mullin 5 NE 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13
Eldorado 2 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fort McKavett 6 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sonora 17 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
San Saba River at Menard 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Menard 14 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 13 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba River near Brady 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 15 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eden 3 S 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Menard 11 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Melvin 2 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brady Creek at Brady 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brady 11 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba 15 SW 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13
Richland Springs 7 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba 8 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Richland Springs 6 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba River at San Saba 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
San Saba 6 S 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Colorado River near San Saba 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba 8 ESE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Lometa 2 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cherokee 8 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05
Cherokee 6 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.37 0.37
Colorado River at Bend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cherokee 10 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cherokee 4 E 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03
Cherokee 2 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cherokee Creek near Bend 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.58 0.58
San Saba 15 ESE 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Lampasas 13 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tow 11 N 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.45
Lampasas 11 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.64
Tow 9 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.39
Lampasas 10 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.11
Tow 10 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.38 0.38
Lake Buchanan at Cedar Point 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02
Tow 11 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tow 5 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02
Tow 10 ESE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.74
Burnet 5 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Buchanan Dam 2 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

LBJ

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Burnet 6 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lake LBJ at 1431 Bridge 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sonora 14 SE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Roosevelt 10 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Telegraph 9 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
North Llano River near Roosevelt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Junction 17 NW 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
North Llano River near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rocksprings 12 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Telegraph 5 SW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
South Llano River at Telegraph 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano River near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mountain Home 17 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Junction 14 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Johnson Fork near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
London 12 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Junction 18 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Menard 12 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03
Mason 15 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 7 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harper 6 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harper 13 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
James River near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 14 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 3 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Comanche Creek near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Llano River near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fredericksburg 12 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harper 8 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Doss 4 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beaver Creek near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Doss 8 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Mason 10 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Willow Creek near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02
Mason 17 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Castell 4 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 15 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08
Cherry Spring 3 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano 19 SW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hickory Creek near Castell 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02
Llano 19 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano 14 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Fernando Creek near Llano 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano 9 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05
Johnson Creek near Llano 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.35
Cherokee 4 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano River at Llano 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15
Llano 5 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04
Llano 6 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano 7 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04
Tow 5 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.55
Little Llano River near Llano 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06
Kingsland 7 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22
Honey Creek near Kingsland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

Rainfall yet? It’s coming

July 8th, 2012 at 9:48 pm by under Weather

 

A lot of folks got some of that welcome wet stuff over the weekend, and then some of us, mainly us living in Austin, haven’t seen more than just a few drops.  Don’t worry though, rain chances are going up.  In fact, on Friday in my 7 day forecast, this past weekend had the lowest chances of rain from Saturday-Wednesday.  Good news for sure.  It looks like the best chances for rain will occur Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Some of the showers and t-storms will produce brief periods of heavy rainfall as there will not be a lot of mid/upper level movement, and the storms will more or less just drift.  They will also have plenty of tropical moisture to work with.  Some dry creek beds may fill quickly over the next few days, and extra caution should be exercised at low water crossings that are typically dry (until it rains).

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a 5 day forecast for rainfall totals for the country, below is the map for our area, with estimates for given locations, which look quite promising.

 

So far today the unofficial rainfall numbers from the NWS reporting stations are below

Austin Mabry: 0.01″

Austin Bergstrom: Trace

Austin Executive: 0.21″

Fredericksburg: 0.08″

Llano: 0.83″

Burnet: 0.72″

Giddings: 1.09″

 

Below is the rainfall summary from the LCRA’s network of remote guages.  Some of the numbers in the Highland Lakes look quite impressive and should help the lake levels in the upcoming days.

Buchanan

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Millersview 7 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05
Gouldbusk 4 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lohn 3 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09
Bangs 6 W 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.55 0.55
Rochelle 5 NNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River at Winchell 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.06
Brownwood 10 SSW 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.24 0.24
Richland Springs 11 N 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Richland Springs 6 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River near Goldthwaite 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.44 0.44
Clyde 6 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Cross Plains 6 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pecan Bayou at Hwy 279 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
May 1 N 0.00 0.24 0.68 0.68 0.68
Lawn 5 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08
Burkett 9 S 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 0.22
Brownwood 4 SE 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.33 0.33
Blanket 4 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pecan Bayou near Mullin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mullin 5 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eldorado 2 E 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.50 0.50
Fort McKavett 6 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sonora 17 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16
San Saba River at Menard 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08
Menard 14 E 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.14
Mason 13 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.01
San Saba River near Brady 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.38 0.20
Mason 15 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00
Eden 3 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Menard 11 NE 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.08 0.07
Melvin 2 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brady Creek at Brady 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brady 11 E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04
San Saba 15 SW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Richland Springs 7 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.69
San Saba 8 W 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.33 0.33
Richland Springs 6 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
San Saba River at San Saba 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.52 0.52
San Saba 6 S 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.38
Colorado River near San Saba 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.76 0.76
San Saba 8 ESE 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.14
Lometa 2 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.14
Cherokee 8 NNE 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.58 0.58
Cherokee 6 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River at Bend 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20
Cherokee 10 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cherokee 4 E 0.00 0.01 1.38 1.38 1.38
Cherokee 2 NNW 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cherokee Creek near Bend 0.00 0.01 0.90 0.90 0.90
San Saba 15 ESE 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.34 0.34
Lampasas 13 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06
Tow 11 N 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08
Lampasas 11 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Tow 9 NNE 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.11
Lampasas 10 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.29 0.29
Tow 10 NNW 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.18 0.18
Lake Buchanan at Cedar Point 0.00 0.07 0.35 0.35 0.35
Tow 11 ENE 0.00 0.00 1.08 1.08 1.08
Tow 5 SSW 0.00 0.06 0.52 0.52 0.52
Tow 10 ESE 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.07
Burnet 5 NNW 0.00 0.01 1.32 1.32 1.32
Buchanan Dam 2 NNW 0.00 0.07 0.81 0.81 0.81

LBJ

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Burnet 6 WSW 0.00 0.07 0.83 0.83 0.83
Lake LBJ at 1431 Bridge 0.00 0.09 1.01 1.07 1.01
Sonora 14 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Roosevelt 10 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Telegraph 9 NW 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.22
North Llano River near Roosevelt 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06
Junction 17 NW 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.52 0.52
North Llano River near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rocksprings 12 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Telegraph 5 SW 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09
South Llano River at Telegraph 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano River near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mountain Home 17 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.06
Junction 14 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Johnson Fork near Junction 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.54 0.54
London 12 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Junction 18 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Menard 12 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07
Mason 15 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.01
Mason 7 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.34 0.05
Harper 6 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harper 13 NW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.03
James River near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.01
Mason 14 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00
Mason 3 NNE 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.04
Comanche Creek near Mason 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.25 0.06
Llano River near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04
Fredericksburg 12 NW 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.04
Harper 8 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Doss 4 N 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beaver Creek near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00
Doss 8 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 10 NE 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.14
Willow Creek near Mason 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00
Mason 17 SE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Castell 4 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mason 15 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Cherry Spring 3 ENE 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Llano 19 SW 0.00 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.10
Hickory Creek near Castell 0.00 0.01 0.96 0.99 0.96
Llano 19 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Llano 14 WNW 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.42 0.42
San Fernando Creek near Llano 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.46 0.33
Llano 9 NW 0.01 0.01 0.68 0.68 0.68
Johnson Creek near Llano 0.00 1.60 1.68 1.60
Cherokee 4 SSE 0.00 0.02 2.21 2.21 2.21
Llano River at Llano 0.00 0.01 1.69 1.71 1.69
Llano 5 SSW 0.00 0.04 1.80 1.80 1.80
Llano 6 SSE 0.00 0.12 0.18 0.18 0.18
Llano 7 NNE 0.00 0.02 1.14 1.14 1.14
Tow 5 W 0.00 0.03 0.85 0.90 0.90
Little Llano River near Llano 0.00 0.04 1.58 1.61 1.58
Kingsland 7 WNW 0.00 0.13 1.23 1.23 1.23
Honey Creek near Kingsland 0.00 0.33 2.20 2.20 2.20
Lake LBJ at 2900 Bridge 0.00 0.18 0.83 0.84 0.83
Llano 13 SSW 0.01 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Fredericksburg 10 NNE 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.12
Willow City 9 NW 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.17
Sandy Creek near Willow City 0.00 0.51 0.62 0.62 0.62
Llano 11 SSE 0.00 0.56 0.64 0.64 0.64
Willow City 6 ENE 0.07 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
Willow City 10 NNE 0.02 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16
Kingsland 9 WSW 0.01 0.61 1.04 1.04 1.04
Sandy Creek near Click 0.01 1.51 2.03 2.03 2.03
Round Mountain 11 WNW 0.05 1.41 1.48 1.48 1.48
Sandy Creek near Kingsland 0.01 0.77 0.80 0.81 0.80
Walnut Creek near Kingsland 0.03 0.71 0.88 0.89 0.88
Lake LBJ at Sandy Harbor 0.01 0.68 1.56 1.59 1.56
Round Mountain 6 WNW 0.07 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86

Marble Falls

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Marble Falls 4 WSW 0.01 0.24 0.51 0.74 0.73
Kingsland 6 ESE 0.00 0.09 0.28 0.28 0.28
Backbone Creek at Marble Falls 0.00 0.19 0.26 0.33 0.26
Flat Rock Creek near Marble Falls 0.01 0.16 0.24 0.24 0.24

Travis

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Marble Falls 10 SSW 0.07 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18
Burnet 6 SSE 0.00 0.09 0.41 0.41 0.41
Burnet 1 WSW 0.00 0.05 0.97 0.97 0.97
Hamilton Creek near Marble Falls 0.00 0.14 1.49 1.49 1.49
Marble Falls 6 ENE 0.00 0.17 1.55 1.55 1.55
Spicewood 5 WNW 0.05 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.31
Spicewood 2 NNE 0.02 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.21
Harper 4 SSW 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.45 0.45
Harper 8 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05
Fredericksburg 10 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.44 0.44
Fredericksburg 9 SW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedernales River near Fredericksburg 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fredericksburg 5 N 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.29 0.29
Fredericksburg 10 SSE 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01
South Grape Creek near Luckenbach 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Willow City 6 SSW 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Pedernales River at LBJ Ranch near Stonewall 0.05 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Blanco 13 WNW 0.03 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19
Willow City 3 NNW 0.02 0.05 0.50 0.62 0.62
Stonewall 7 NNE 0.14 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
North Grape Creek near Johnson City 0.12 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66
Johnson City 10 NNW 0.12 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
Johnson City 4 NNW 0.10 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.47
Johnson City 5 SSW 0.04 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.54
Pedernales River near Johnson City 0.06 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
Blanco 5 NNE 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Miller Creek near Johnson City 0.12 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
Johnson City 10 E 0.08 0.12 0.76 0.76 0.76
Dripping Springs 8 W 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Flat Creek near Pedernales Falls State Park 0.08 0.10 0.20 0.66 0.66
Johnson City 9 NNE 0.09 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.06
Cypress Creek near Cypress Mill 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
Spicewood 4 S 0.05 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
Lakeway 6 W 0.04 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Bertram 8 SSW 0.00 0.10 0.42 0.42 0.42
Marble Falls 14 ESE 0.00 0.14 0.46 0.46 0.46
Cow Creek near Lago Vista 0.00 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.29
Lakeway 2 E 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.10
Lago Vista 1 ESE 0.01 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18
Leander 5 SW 0.00 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.13
Big Sandy Creek near Jonestown 0.00 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
Cedar Park 3 SSW 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Mansfield Dam 1 ENE 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Austin

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Lake Austin at Quinlan Park 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Lake Austin at Cortana Shores 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Lake Austin at Davenport Ranch 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jollyville 2 SW 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Bull Creek at Loop 360, Austin 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Lady Bird Lake

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
LCRA Redbud Center 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dripping Springs 4 NNE 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.52 0.09
Barton Creek at SH 71 near Oak Hill 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.03
Barton Creek at Loop 360, Austin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lady Bird Lake near Longhorn Dam 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lower River

Location 1 Hour 3 Hour 6 Hour 24 Hour Since Midnight
Walnut Creek at Webberville Road, Austin 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05
Dripping Springs 5 SSW 0.00 0.00 2.15 2.21 2.15
Driftwood 4 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.27 0.27
Onion Creek at Buda 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manchaca 4 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.23
Onion Creek at Hwy 183, Austin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pflugerville 3 SSE 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13
Gilleland Creek near Manor 0.00 0.03 0.15 0.15 0.15
Elgin 8 NW 0.00 0.01 0.76 0.76 0.76
Wilbarger Creek near Elgin 0.03 0.41 1.15 1.15 1.15
Big Sandy Creek near Elgin 0.00 0.17 0.25 0.25 0.25
Colorado River at Bastrop 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Lockhart 6 NE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cedar Creek 3 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cedar Creek near Bastrop 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Rosanky 1 W 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Colorado River at Smithville 0.00 0.25 0.74 0.74 0.74
Giddings 3 WSW 0.00 0.00 1.62 1.62 1.62
Colorado River above La Grange 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Muldoon 6 WSW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Buckners Creek near Muldoon 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
La Grange 5 NE 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Lake Fayette at Fayette Power Plant 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Carmine 1 SSW 0.00 0.07 0.50 0.52 0.50
Cummins Creek near Frelsburg 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River at Columbus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River near Altair 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River near Glen Flora 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colorado River at Wharton 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Colorado River near Lane City 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.32 1.32
Colorado River at Bay City 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.04
Eagle Lake 7 NE 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.27 1.27
San Bernard River at East Bernard 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Sargent 1 ENE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.65
Matagorda 1 S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Midfield 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01