Recent rain has had a positive influence on our drought situation. However, we still sit in the severe drought category and could use more wet weather in Central Texas. So far this May, we’re 1.64″ behind our normal rainfall total at Camp Mabry in Austin.

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND COOL START TO MAY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH HAS
TURNED HOT AND DRIER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MAY IS NORMALLY
THE THIRD WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT. MAY HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS...BUT MANY
LOCATIONS SAW LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. SLIGHT SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THE RAINFALL...BUT THE RECENT RETURN TO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES HAS WIPED OUT MOST SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS.
RIVERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT WAY UNTIL A PROLONGED WET PERIOD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CURRENT LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 IS SHOWING
STRONGER TRENDS FOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE
RAINFALL.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE
HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING
AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MAY 21ST AND ISSUED ON MAY 23RD
INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS. THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 90 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). EIGHTEEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

 (more...)

Next Monday is the 32nd Anniversary of the Memorial Day Flood. It was the weather event that sparked changes in how Austin thought about  and prepared for flash flooding.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/austintexasgov/sets/72157626196677382/

From the City of Austin:

Flood Safety Transformed Since Historic Flood, but Austin Still at Risk

During the 1981 Memorial Day Flood, 13 people died – 11 in cars, businesses were ravaged and Austin woke up to the dangers of flooding.

Within the first year after the flood, the City of Austin created an Emergency Operations Center and began looking at other ways to improve our safety during a flood. In the thirty-two years since the flood, Austin has:

• Vastly improved training and equipment of first responders.

• Strengthened our partnerships with the National Weather Service and the U.S. Geological Survey.

• Developed an extensive Flood Early Warning System.

• Invested more than $200 million in flood control projects, including home buyouts, detention ponds, floodwalls and higher bridges.

• Developed new technologies like ATXfloods.com for real-time flood information and road closures in Austin and Travis County and FloodPro, a web-based map viewer with the City’s floodplain-related information.

While we are much more prepared to protect lives and property from flooding, we live in Central Texas’ Flash Flood Alley and must be on the lookout for flood dangers when it rains. Even though we are still in a drought, as recently as April 2, we received three inches of rain, and there were three swift water rescues by the Austin Fire Department because of vehicles stalling out on flooded roads.

(more…)

The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth is still doing damage assessments on the north Texas tornado event earlier this week. Their preliminary tornado count, 16. I’ve posted the latest findings below.

Base Reflectivity Data from KFWS at 7:58 pm CDT

Storm Relative Velocity Data from KFWS at 7:58 pm CDT

This week’s rain is a certain help but as you can imagine we’ll need more to keep our yards and gardens green as the temperatures heat up . Here are some tips from our partners at Earth Gauge about getting the most out of your sprinkler system.

Smart About Sprinklers

Did you know that homes with automatically timed sprinkler or irrigation systems use up to 50 percent more water than homes without these systems? The amount of water wasted can jump even higher if sprinkler heads are damaged or pointed in the wrong direction, or the system is programmed incorrectly.

Taking a few minutes to tune up your sprinkler system saves water and money. EPA’s WaterSense program offers these simple steps to make sure your sprinkler system is in top shape before the summer watering season is in full swing:

• Inspect. Check for missing, broken or clogged sprinkler heads. If you aren’t sure what to look for or how to replace broken sprinkler heads, ask a professional for help. Get started with a list of WaterSense certified landscape professionals.
• Connect. Look for leaks where sprinkler heads connect to pipes or hoses. If you notice water pooling in your yard, a leak may be the culprit. A tiny leak the size of the tip of a ballpoint pen can waste over 6,000 gallons of water per month!
• Direct. Make sure you aren’t watering the sidewalk, driveway or side of your home. Redirect any sprinklers that are hitting the wrong spot.
• Select. Program the right watering schedule for your yard and climate – and update the schedule with the seasons. As the weather warms up, avoid watering mid-day when the sun will evaporate much of the water before it reaches your plants.

More tips for sprucing up your system, picking the right watering schedule and managing your irrigation

With the wild bouts of severe weather that have impacted the U.S. in recent years, it’s no surprise meteorologists are looking for even better ways of predicting how big and how strong tornado outbreaks will be. Weather researchers are making strides. Check out the article below from NOAA on a new tornado outbreak predicting method.

One of the country’s most active tornado days of 2012 was April 14, when 153 twisters were reported, including this one near Cherokee, Oklahoma. Since that date, tornadic activity has run far below average. (Photo © Bob Henson.)

Researchers develop method to better predict severity of tornado outbreaks

Weather forecasters would love to be able to predict the severity of tornado outbreaks, giving those in their path potentially life-saving information.

Now, using new experimental high-resolution forecast models, researchers have developed a method to help forecasters better predict the severity of tornado outbreaks. A report on this work by scientists at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma is available online and will be included in the April 2013 print edition of the journal of Weather and Forecasting.

Researchers found that the amount of rotation in the rapidly rising air within simulated storms – a measure known as updraft helicity — was strongly related to the track-length of observed tornadoes in previous severe weather events.

These results show the potential for forecasters to use this measure to make very reliable predictions of the magnitude of spring season tornado outbreaks. Researchers also found that they could predict with a high degree of certainty, the most destructive tornado outbreaks, which typically occur only once every few years.

(more…)

From NASA:

NASA Study Projects Warming-Driven Changes in Global Rainfall

WASHINGTON — A NASA-led modeling study provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk for extreme rainfall and drought.

The study shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of rainfall types on Earth.

Analysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see increases in heavy precipitation because of warming resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels. Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with moderate rainfall could become drier.

The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming’s impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged droughts in certain regions,” said William Lau of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., and lead author of the study.

The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will increase globally by 1 percent. However, total global rainfall is not projected to change much because moderate rainfall will decrease globally by 1.4 percent.

(more…)

From NOAA:

April 25, 2013

The radar receiving dish inside the protective cover. Dual-pol is both a hardware and software upgrade to the radar. Courtesy: NOAA

This week, the National Weather Service completed the dual-polarization technology update in Brownsville, Texas – concluding the 122 NWS radar site upgrades throughout the country. This new advanced technology is helping federal weather forecasters more accurately track, assess and warn the public of approaching high-impact weather.

Dual-polarization is the most significant enhancement made to the nation’s federal weather radar system since Doppler technology was first installed in the early 1990s. Dual-pol radar sends and receives both horizontal and vertical pulses, which produces a much more informative picture of the size and shape of the objects in the sky. This provides meteorologists the ability to distinguish between rain, snow, hail and non-weather items like wildfire smoke plumes, birds and insects. Conventional Doppler radar only has a one-dimensional view making it difficult to tell the type of precipitation or object in the sky.

“This achievement is the result of years of research, development and continued investment that’s helping us become a more weather-ready nation,” said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service. “It is amazing what we can see with dual-pol technology. This game-changing technology has already helped forecasters issue more accurate and timely warnings to the public and has saved lives.”

Dual-pol is credited with providing improved detection of heavy rainfall, which can increase warning time for flash floods. During winter storms, forecasters use dual-pol information to monitor a transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain, which allows for a more accurate forecast. Dual-pol can also spot airborne debris giving forecasters the ability to confirm a tornado on the ground, even in the dark or when hidden by heavy rain. The new technology has also been used to help detect hazards to aircraft, such as volcanic ash plumes, icing conditions and birds.

(more…)

From NOAA NCDC:

Climate Highlights — March

• The March average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 40.8°F, which was 0.9°F below the 20^th century average. This was in stark contrast to temperatures from one year prior when March 2012 was the warmest such month on record for the nation. 2013 marked the coolest March since 2002, when the monthly nationally-averaged temperature was 2.2°F below average.

• Much of the eastern U.S. was cooler than average during March, with the exception of New England, which was slightly warmer than average. Eleven states in the Ohio Valley, along the Gulf Coast, and in the Southeast had March temperatures that were among their ten coolest. In fact, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina had March 2013 temperatures that were cooler than January 2013.
• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic and can relate to temperatures in the middle-latitudes, including the U.S., during the winter and spring months. The AO was in a strongly negative phase during most of the month. The monthly-averaged AO index was the most negative value on record for March and was associated with the prolonged cold air outbreak that impacted states from the Canadian border to the Southeast.
• Temperatures were above average for parts of the West. Arizona, California, and Nevada each had March temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Above-average temperatures were also observed in Washington, Oregon, Idaho,Utah, and New Mexico.
• The March average precipitation for the contiguous U.S. was 1.68 inches, 0.72 inch below average, and the fifth driest March on record. This marked the driest March since 1966, when the nationally-averaged precipitation total was 1.51 inches.
• A large area of the contiguous U.S. had near- to below-average precipitation totals during March. The West, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Northeast were particularly dry. Louisiana had its fourth driest March, with 31 percent of average precipitation for the month. Wyoming tied its fifth driest March, with 47 percent of average precipitation. Minnesota was the only state with above-average March precipitation.
• Several storms impacted the U.S. bringing late-season snowfall to the eastern two-thirds of the country. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was nearly 1.0 million square miles, 239,000 square miles above the 1981-2010 average, and the 10^th largest March snow cover extent in the 47-year period of record. However, snowpack, an important water resource in the West, was below-normal in the Sierra Nevada Mountains as well as the Central and Southern Rockies.
• Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 127 percent of average during March and the 31^st highest value in the 119-year period of record. This was the highest REDTI value for March since 1996.
• According to the April 2 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 51.9 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought, smaller than the 54.2 percent at the end of February. Drought conditions improved in parts of the Southeast, as well as the eastern edge of the core drought areas in the Central and Southern Plains, due to increased precipitation over the past three to six months. Drought remained entrenched across the rest of the Great Plains and interior western states.
• Climate Highlights — year-to-date (January — March)
• The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. for the year-to-date period was 35.8°F, 0.5°F above average. Much of the nation had near-average January–March temperatures. The Northeast and parts of the Northern Rockies were warmer than average, while the interior western states and parts of the Mid-South were cooler than average.
• The nationally-averaged precipitation total for the year-to-date period was 6.04 inches, 0.60 inch below average.
• The West, Northeast, and Florida were drier than average for the three-month period. California had its driest January-March on record with a precipitation total 8.53 inches below the long-term average of 11.48 inches. Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming also had one of their ten driest year-to-date periods on record.
• Wetter-than-average conditions were present for parts of the Midwest and Southeast. Michigan had its tenth wettest January-March with precipitation 136 percent of average.

(more…)

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declares Stage III Critical Drought. That means more water restrictions for its users in southern Travis and Hays counties. It’s just the latest sign of our ongoing drought.

Here’s more from the BSEACD:

Aquifer District Declares Stage III Critical Groundwater Drought

(Austin)  The Board of Directors of the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District authorized a Stage III Critical Drought declaration at its Board meeting last week, once the water level in Lovelady Monitor Well was below its drought threshold for two consecutive days.  Only one drought trigger below its threshold is required to enter into drought. Today marks two consecutive days where the Lovelady Monitor Well water level elevation was confirmed to be below its drought trigger threshold of 462.7 feet above mean sea level (ft msl).  Stage III Critical Drought is now officially declared for the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District.

Under Stage III restrictions, permittees are required to reduce monthly pumping by at least 30% for historical permits and over 75% for conditional permits.  Water utilities supplied by groundwater in the District will be implementing additional restrictions on their end-user customers to reach the drought curtailments. These restrictions effectively protect groundwater supplies by slowing water level declines.

The NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts that the current drought in the District is likely to persist or intensify.  In 2011 during the last Stage III Critical Drought, the District received many ‘dry well’ reports. Water conservation can help prolong water supplies and delay well issues.

“This is the third Critical Stage drought declaration in five years.  Homeowners have started making their landscapes drought-hearty so they require less water.  Still, this drought declaration is particularly difficult; it comes at the start of the growing period where we usually have seen a marked increase in outdoor water use.  Those drought tolerant landscapes will pay off this year.  We’ve got to be water wise as a community.  We are all in this together,” commented Mary Stone, District Board President.

(more…)