Natalie Stoll

NOAA’s spring outlook

March 28th, 2013 at 11:52 am by under Weather

NOAA predicts mixed bag of drought, flooding and warm weather for spring

March 21, 2013

U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2013.

U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2013.

NOAA issued the three-month U.S. Spring Outlook today, stating that odds favor above-average temperatures across much of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas, the Southwest and the Great Plains. Spring promises little drought relief for most of these areas, as well as Florida, with below- average spring precipitation favored there. Meanwhile, river flooding is likely to be worse than last year across the country, with the most significant flood potential in North Dakota.

“This outlook reminds us of the climate diversity and weather extremes we experience in North America, where one state prepares for flooding while neighboring states are parched, with no drought relief in sight,” said Laura Furgione, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We produce this outlook to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. A Weather-Ready Nation hopes for the best, but prepares for the worst.”

The U.S. Spring Outlook identifies the likelihood of spring flood risk and expectations for temperature, precipitation and drought. The outlook is based on a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil moisture, streamflow, precipitation, Pacific Ocean temperatures and consensus among climate forecast models.

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Hail hits Central Texas

March 20th, 2013 at 5:48 pm by under Weather

Severe storms hit Central Texas Tuesday night with rain, lightning, thunder and some large hail.

Here are some of the largest reports. They came in between midnight and 3 a.m.

Hail reports

Most areas, however,  saw hail around pea-sized. It was noisy enough to wake up a lot of people. Viewers also sent in picture after great picture last night. In some, the small hail looks like snow!

Courtesy: Lynne McCubbin

Courtesy: Lynne McCubbin

Courtesy: Pam Moore

Courtesy: Pam Moore

Thanks to everyone who sent in photos. They are a great way for us to verify what we see on the radar! Check out more pics in our interactive photo gallery. If you have a picture you’d like to share, you can email it to us at ReportIt@kxan.com

 


Weather reporters needed

March 18th, 2013 at 6:42 pm by under Weather

The National Weather Service is still looking for more citizen scientists. If you have a rain guage and are willing to report your rainfall totals on a regular basis, the CoCoRaHS network could use your help.

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The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) is a nationwide, non-profit, volunteer, rainfall reporting network. National Weather Service meteorologists depend on a network of rainfall observers to provide accurate and timely “ground truth” precipitation reports on a daily basis.

Quality precipitation data received from observers leads directly to improved weather and river level forecasts and warnings. The value of precipitation information obtained from CoCoRaHS is extraordinary, yielding a multitude of benefits for all users. Promoting the growth of CoCoRaHS is to secure an invaluable precipitation reporting resource for current and future generations.

“Staff forecasters depend on a network of precipitation observers and weather spotters to provide vital information. Precipitation reports from observers provide ground truth evidence of how much rain, hail or snow actually fell to the surface. This data then can be compared to Doppler radar precipitation estimates, which leads to improved weather and river level forecasts and warnings,” said Paul Yura, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service (NWS).

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For more information or to join the CoCoRaHS rainfall reporting network, go to http://cocorahs.org or you may contact the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service  via email to mark.lenz@noaa.gov or steve.smart@noaa.gov.


Drought Update

March 16th, 2013 at 10:30 pm by under Weather

From the NWS:


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
427 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013

...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE EARLY JANUARY
WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH 9TH-10TH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED ONE
THIRD TO ONE INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY TWO
INCHES. MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MISSED OUT ONCE AGAIN ON THE
RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL WAS BADLY NEEDED...BUT TOTALS FOR THE MONTH
ARE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGE TO DATE AND FOR THE YEAR. THE
CURRENT LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS ARE
SHOWING STRONGER TRENDS TOWARDS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATES AND
STRONGER TRENDS FOR BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. SHORT TERM DROUGHT
IMPACTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING. LONG TERM IMPACTS ALSO CONTINUE AS LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL LEVELS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENTS WILL HELP THE SHORT TERM IMPACTS AS WELL AS THE LONGER TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING AN ENSO
(EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN INTO SUMMER. EVEN
THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 12TH AND ISSUED ON MARCH
14TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS
CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
STATUS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW REPORTING MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS.
tx_dm

CURRENTLY 55 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). SIX PERCENT OF THE STATE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

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February climate highlights

March 14th, 2013 at 3:26 pm by under Weather

From NOAA NCDC:

monthlysigeventmap-022013-sm

Climate Highlights — February

•The February average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 34.8°F, which was 0.8°F above the 20th century average.

•February temperatures were near-average for a large portion of the Lower 48, including the Northwest Coast, Central and Southern Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and much of the East Coast. Below-average temperatures were reported for the Southwest, while most of the Canadian-border states and parts of the Gulf Coast were warmer than average.

•The nationally-averaged precipitation total during February was 2.00 inches, which was 0.02 inch below the long-term average, masking regional wet and dry extremes.

•The West Coast and Northern Rockies were drier than average. California had its fifth driest February on record, with a precipitation total of 0.57 inch, 3.05 inches below average. Oregon’s precipitation total of 1.20 inches was 2.00 inches below average and marked the seventh driest February for the state.

•Above-average precipitation was observed from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains, mostly along the eastern periphery of the Plains core drought area, and in the Southeast. Above-average precipitation was also present for parts of New England, where Massachusetts had its eighth wettest February and Rhode Island its third wettest.

•Georgia had its wettest February on record with 9.92 inches of precipitation, 5.42 inches above average. The above-average precipitation drastically improved drought conditions which have been present since the summer of 2010. Neighboring Alabama had its fourth wettest February and South Carolina its seventh wettest.

•Three major winter storms impacted the nation during February, contributing to an above-average monthly snow cover extent, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. A Nor’easter hit the East Coast on February 7th-10th, dropping over 30 inches of snow in parts of New England. The storm was rated a Category 3 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), which takes into account snowfall accumulation in the densely populated areas of the northeastern United States. Back-to-back winter storms hit the central U.S. on February 20th-23rd and 25th-28th, bringing heavy snowfall totals and near blizzard conditions from New Mexico to Michigan.

•According to the February 26 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 54.2 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought, smaller than the 57.7 percent at the end of January. Drought conditions continued to plague much of the Great Plains and West.

Climate Highlights — winter season (December 2012 — February 2013)

•The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during the winter season was 34.3°F, 1.9°F above the 20th century average, marking the 20th warmest winter on record.

•Winter was warmer than average for all states east of the Rockies, with the largest departures from average along the East Coast. Florida, Delaware, and Vermont each had one of their ten warmest winters on record. Conversely, the Southwest was cooler than average, and near-average winter temperatures reported in the Northwest.

•The winter nationally-averaged precipitation total of 7.10 inches was 0.63 inch above the long-term average.

•The above-average temperatures were accompanied by above-average precipitation for most states east of the Rockies. Many states in the Great Lakes region and Gulf Coast — Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia — had winter precipitation totals ranking among their ten wettest. Below-average precipitation occurred from the West Coast through the Northern Plains and Rockies.

•According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the winter average snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was 1.3 million square miles, which was 127,000 square miles above the 1981-2010 average. This marked the 15th largest seasonal snow cover extent in the 1966-present period of record.

•The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was slightly below average during the December-February, period. However, the component that examines the spatial extent of drought was more than three times the normal value for the 3-month period.

•Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was less than half the 1895-2012 period of record average during winter. This was the 14th smallest such value on record.

Climate Highlights — year-to-date (January — February)

•The first two months of 2013 were warmer than average for the contiguous U.S. with a nationally-averaged temperature of 33.3°F, 1.2°F above average. Near- and above-average temperatures were recorded east of the Rockies. Florida experienced its 11th warmest January-February with a statewide temperature 3.7°F above average. Below-average temperatures were present for much of the West, from California to Colorado. Utah had its 12th coolest January-February, with temperatures 5.3°F below average.

•The January–February precipitation total for the U.S. was 4.36 inches, just 0.12 inch below average. The West and Northeast were both drier than average during the two-month period. California had its driest January–February on record, with average precipitation of 1.75 inches, well below its average of 8.28 inches. Above-average precipitation was present for parts of the Midwest and Gulf Coast, where seven states were top ten wet.

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March madness CoCoRaHS style

March 2nd, 2013 at 4:05 pm by under Weather

Have a rain gauge? Looking to put it to good use? The National Weather Service is looking for weather spotter volunteers and could use your help.

Read about their CoCoRaHS program below.

March is the month when we strive to increase the number of CoCoRaHS volunteer rainfall observers across south Texas.

CoCoRaHS continues to be a premier method for obtaining quality rainfall and storm reports from people like you. The contributions of CoCoRaHS observers has a tremendous impact on meteorological, hydrological and climatological products and services provided by the National Weather Service.

We invite you to join CoCoRaHS and start making a difference today!

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) 

CoCoRaHS is a unique, non-profit, community-based network of volunteers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow).   By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive Web-site, the goal is to provide the highest quality data for natural resource, education and research applications. CoCoRaHS operates in most states across the country.


NOAA studies warming climate’s impact on workforce

March 1st, 2013 at 2:30 pm by under Weather

New NOAA study estimates future loss of labor capacity as climate warms

February 25, 2013

A new NOAA study projects that heat-stress related labor capacity losses will double globally by 2050 with a warming climate. The impact will be felt the most by those who work outside or in hot environments, such as firefighters, bakery workers, farmers, construction workers, factory workers, and others who will be forced to slow down due to increases in heat and humidity. This will be particularly apparent in mid-latitude and tropical regions, which include South and East Asia, North America, and Australia.

The research, published online  in Nature Climate Change, uses existing occupational health and safety thresholds to establish a new metric to quantify a healthy, acclimated individual’s capacity to safely perform sustained labor under environmental heat stress. Heat stress can result in heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and can also increase the risk of injuries. Age, obesity, and medical conditions such as heart disease or high blood pressure can also put workers at greater risk of heat stress.

“Most studies of the direct impact of global warming on humans have focused on mortality under either extreme weather events or theoretical physiological limits. We wanted instead to describe climate warming in practical terms that people commonly experience already,” John Dunne, Ph.D., of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author said.

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Wildfire season starts in March

February 28th, 2013 at 2:20 pm by under Weather

As daylight breaks, smoke shadows the orange sky in Bastrop County. (Jarrod Wise/KXAN)

Earth Gauge: Preparing for Wildfire Season

The spring months – March through May – are a time of increased wildfire risk in the southern United States and Texas. Wildfire risk can be especially high in areas where homes and buildings are located adjacent to woodlands, parks and other natural landscapes.

This is a good time of year to survey your property and reduce the amount of flammable material around your home.  An easy way to do this is to think of your property in zones:

  • Zone 1 is closest to your home and extends for at least 30 feet. This zone should be well-irrigated and planted with native plants that are well-suited to the local climate.
  • Zone 2 extends at least 20 feet from Zone 1. This area should also be well-irrigated and can include low-growing plants, shrubs and carefully-placed trees. Place trees at least 10 feet apart and trim away dead branches.
  • Zone 3 is the farthest from your home and extends at least 50 feet from Zone 2. Think of this as a “slightly modified natural area.” Thin out dense areas of trees and remove dead or dying trees and shrubs.

Learn more about making your home and community Firewise.

(Sources: National Fire Protection Association, Firewise. “Be Firewise Around Your Home.” http://firewise.gvpi.net/~/media/Firewise/Files/Pdfs/Booklets%20and%20Brochures/BrochureBeFirewiseAroundYourHome.pdf)


January Climate Overview

February 23rd, 2013 at 6:33 pm by under Weather

From NOAA NCDC:

Climate Highlights — January

  • The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during January was 32.0°F, 1.6°F above the 20th century average, tying with 1958 as the 39th warmest January on record.
  • January brought warmer-than-average conditions to the eastern half of the contiguous U.S., despite several cold air outbreaks. The largest warm temperature departures from average were in the Southeast, where Georgia and Florida both had their 11th warmest January with monthly temperatures 5.7°F and 5.6°F above average, respectively.
  • Below-average temperatures were anchored in the western United States. Nevada had its ninth coolest January on record, with a monthly temperature 5.9°F below average, and Utah had its eighth coolest January, with temperatures 7.5°F below average.
  • The January nationally-averaged precipitation total of 2.36 inches was 0.14 inch above the long-term average. The January precipitation average masked both wet and dry extremes across the nation. Drought conditions remained entrenched across the Southeast, Great Plains, and the mountainous West.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions stretched from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, where Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Michigan, and Virginia each had January precipitation totals ranking among their ten wettest. The above-average precipitation generally missed the core drought areas of the central and southeastern United States.
  • Drier-than-average conditions were observed along the West Coast, the central Rockies, and parts of the Northern Plains, Southeast, and Northeast. California, Connecticut, and Florida each had one of their ten driest Januarys.
  • According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the January snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was slightly above average at 1.4 million square miles. Mountain snowpack was near-average for much of the West, with the exceptions in parts of the Northwest where snowpack was much above average, and in the Central and Southern Rockies where snowpack was much below average.
  • Alaska was warmer and wetter than average. The statewide average temperature was 7.1°F above average and the precipitation total was 64 percent above average. Parts of the state had monthly temperatures more than 10°F above normal.
  • According to the January 29thU.S. Drought Monitor report, 57.7 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought, smaller than the 61.1 percent at the beginning of the month. Drought conditions improved in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Mid-Mississippi River Valley.

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New app to report precipitation

February 10th, 2013 at 5:32 pm by under Weather

From NOAA:

New smart phone app lets public report rain, hail, sleet and snow to NOAA

Public reports will aid weather research

The new mPING app for Apple and Android mobile devices lets users report rain, hail, sleet and snow to NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory.

It’s now easier than ever to be a part of NOAA’s weather research. The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, in partnership with the University of Oklahoma, has launched a free app for users to anonymously report precipitation from their Apple or Android mobile device.

With the mPING app, anyone can send a weather observation on the go. The user simply opens the app, selects the type of precipitation that is falling at his or her location, and presses submit. The user’s location and the time of the observation are automatically included in the report.

All submissions will become part of a research project called PING – Precipitation Identification Near the Ground. NSSL and OU researchers will use the mPING submissions to build a valuable database of tens of thousands of observations from across the United States.

“mPING gives the public a unique opportunity to act as citizen scientists, allowing them to report their observations of precipitation — such as snow, rain, ice pellets, or a mix — in real time,” said principal investigator Kim Elmore, Ph.D., research meteorologist with the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) at the University of Oklahoma. “Because this nation-wide information will be instantly available from one website, we believe it will be useful for not only researchers, but a variety of groups, including students and teachers, forecasters, TV meteorologists, members of the transportation and aviation industries, city managers and law enforcement.”

In addition to reporting winter precipitation, mPING users can report observations of hail occurrence and hail size during the summer months, Elmore added.

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