Fact: This year, for the first time since hurricane records began in 1851, none of the first seven Atlantic storms have reached hurricane status.  No hurricanes hit the U.S. last year and so far this year of the 9 storms that have been named, none have become hurricanes.So in a way the U.S. is kinda due for a wake-up call.

So the push  is for all of us nationally to become more self-aware and prepared as extreme storms seem to become more prevalent.  NOAA/the National Weather Service is launching an effort to get the entire nation prepared for any storm, any time at this time of the year to remind people to not be complacent.  Especially as the hurricane season is entering its peak.

I recently participated in the on the National Weather Service’s meeting about building a Weather Ready Nation.  Austin is already a Storm-Ready Community, but now the NWS is trying to make sure everyone nationwide is ready for the worst.

So far this year the nation has experienced 9 separate  $1billion disasters.  Tying the record from 2008. This year Mother Nature has handed us a bill for more than $35 billion.  The latest being the floods along the Missouri and Souris Rivers.

“Severe weather represents a very real threat to public safety that requires additional robust action,” said Jack Hayes, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The increasing impacts of natural disasters, as seen this year, are a stark reminder of the lives and livelihoods at risk.”

Synoptic Map of Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters–1980-2010
(Click on the image for a larger view- print in landscape mode.)

We here in Texas are part of the $1billion tally this year.

Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer, 2011 Drought, heatwave, and wildfires have created major impacts across the Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Arkansas and Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, 75% and 63% of range and pasture conditions were classified in ‘very poor’ condition as of mid-August. Wildfire fighting/suppression costs for the region are also ~$1 million / day with over 2,000 homes and structures lost. The total direct losses (as of August 15) to agriculture, cattle and structures are well over $5.0 billion; both direct and total economic losses will rise dramatically as the event continues.

To build a weather-ready nation NOAA will work in a partnership with other government agencies, media, researchers, and the private sector entities.  The National Weather Service is charting a path to a weather-ready nation through:

• Improved precision of weather and water forecasts and effective communication of risk to local authorities;
• Improved weather decision support services with new initiatives such as the development of mobile-ready emergency response specialist teams;
• Innovative science and technological solutions such as the nationwide implementation of Dual Pol radar technology, Integrated Water Resources Science and Services, and the Joint Polar Satellite System;
• Strengthening joint partnerships to enhance community preparedness;
• Working with weather enterprise partners and the emergency management community to enhance safety and economic output and effectively manage environmental resources.

Being ready for whatever the weather brings is EVERYONE’S responsibility.  “It starts with National Weather Service and emergency managers, like the U.S. Council of International Association of Emergency Managers, but it ends with actions by individuals and businesses to reduce their risks. The more prepared communities are for destructive weather, the less of a human and economic toll we’ll experience in the future, and that’s a great thing for the country.”

And here in First Warning Weather need your eyes and ears too.  Be on the look out for opportunities to become SkyWarn certified in your community this upcoming spring.

We aren’t the only ones going through a drought.  El Niño also induces droughts in some rainforests.  And they react to climate change through changes in species composition.

The biodiversity, or collection of different species with different strengths and vulnerabilities, of a forest enables it to adapt to changing conditions. For example, a drought tolerant tree species may only have a few members standing when rainfall is plentiful, while drought intolerant species with other positive characteristics are flourishing. –Per Earthguage.net.

 

Since the 1970s, the average temperature in the plot has warmed by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

The website said a survey of which species are present in mature form and which species are the most common saplings provides a good indication of where a forest has been and where it is going. Analysis of a heavily studied forest plot on Barro Colorado Island in Panama shows a forest with many drought tolerant species, which gained the upper hand during a dry period that ran from the 1950s until the mid-1980s and was capped-off by the severe 1983 El Niño related drought.

This to me is proof that Mother Nature will handle the extremes if we just let her.  But at the same time we could help her out by not helping to cause some of the extremes in our environment– like mowing down the rain forests.  The rainforests are a very important part of our ecosystem.  They help to regulate the temperature of the planet.

From rain-tree.com:  Massive deforestation brings with it many ugly consequences-air and water pollution, soil erosion, malaria epidemics, the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the eviction and decimation of indigenous Indian tribes, and the loss of biodiversity through extinction of plants and animals. Fewer rainforests mean less rain, less oxygen for us to breathe, and an increased threat from global warming.

Water restrictions run deep in Round Rock as they implement stage 2 requirements starting this morning.

I did a story about this last night but it’s something that’s worth repeating since the fires in Williamson County yesterday are still fresh on the minds of central Texans.

Round Rock automatically puts the city under stage 1 restrictions every summer.

“Many summers we know the lake levels are going to drop. Demands are very high. Every summer is like that. But this summer there’s a little bit of a difference. When you look at the long range forecast this is not a normal summer.” said Director of Utilities for the City Michael Thane.  And he is correct.

Some would say the City of Round Rock took their time going to their stage II restrictions.

But Thane said there wasn’t any need to go to stage 2 until now.

“Our water system is holding up very well. We can meet the demands that are being placed on us right now. But we’re doing it just because of the weather pattern we are in, the long range forecast. And we want to make sure we have water for our citizens 3 or 4 months down the road.” he said.

For a full list of restrictions you can visit the City of Round Rock site.

Thanks to the rain that fell in the Hill Country Friday their temperatures were a bit cooler than the rest of the viewing area.

That decrease in the temperature is thanks to what we call in the weather world call evapotranspiration.

This helps cool the areas around where the water fell.  Think of it as a slight continuation of “rain-cooled air”.

Many folks have pretty much all but given up completely on gardens this year.  I just got back from Dublin, Ireland and Edinburgh, Scotland where our weather here in Texas was well known to them  across the pond.   I saw rain!  Just about everyday!  I loved it!  I loved it so much I took pictures of it.  Hahaha.  Look at the liquid gold on my Facebook page.  The grass was indeed greener on the other side.  Then I came home to yellow. Brown. Dead. Nothing looks like it was alive.  (sigh).

Ok for those of you who are still trying to save what’s left of your greenery here are a few tips from Earth Gauge:

• Consider adding mulch around the base of all plants, which insulates the roots and helps retain moisture.
• You can also build plant shade tents using a tomato cage and ventilated shade cloth for tender new transplants.

• Locating sun-sensitive plants in the shade of other plants that provide dappled sunlight is another approach.
• Trees offering good partial shade include Huisache and Anacacho orchid trees.

Godspeed and go forth you brave souls!

I was jumping all day between the records, and the tropics.  I’ll just pass along everything in one braindump!  Enjoy and be safe.

Emily is slated to be this year’s 1st hurricane in the Atlantic.  If you have Florida travel plans I hope you bought the insurance.  Here are the latest watches and warnings.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA. 

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

And here is the heat advisories for us here in dry ol’ Texas:

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
829 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

* EVENT...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
  RISE TO OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK
  ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY. LOW
  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID
  AND UPPER 70S AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 80 IN URBAN AREAS.

* TIMING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACT...HEAT STROKE...HEAT CRAMPS...OR HEAT EXHAUSTION IS
  LIKELY WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR
WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS
SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL
AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year.

I’ve gotten the question a few times this very hot summer about why we haven’t got a heat advisory but once this year.  The reason is because the National Weather Service office that governs us has a certain set of criteria that they use to determine if one is necessary.  Each office across the country  is different in the numbers they use because you have different.  What is considered unbearably hot in  New York isn’t going to be the same in Arizona.  Heat Advisories of all kinds are very local.

From the National Weather Service Heat Safety Website.

How Forecasters Decide Whether to Issue Excessive Heat Products

NOAA’s heat alert procedures are based mainly on Heat Index Values. The Heat Index, sometimes referred to as the apparent temperature and given in degrees Fahrenheit, is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored with the actual air temperature.

To find the heat index, look at the Heat Index Chart. As an example, if the air temperature is 96°F (found on the top of the table) and the relative humidity is 65% (found on the left of the table), the heat index–how hot it feels–is 121°F. The National Weather Service will initiate alert procedures when the Heat Index is expected to exceed 105°- 110°F (depending on local climate) for at least 2 consecutive days.

IMPORTANT: Since heat index values were devised for shady, light wind conditions, exposure to full sunshine can increase heat index values by up to 15°f. Also, strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can be extremely hazardous.

The Heat Index Chart shaded zone above 105°F shows a level that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity.

Be very mindful of the hot temperatures.  Our bodies have had plenty of time to adjust but hot is still hot and the human (and pet) body can only do but so much when the temperatures are as hot as they have been.  Slow it down and pleeeeeaaase take it easy out there.

–Met. Rhonda Lee

It is impossible to be more disappointed than I am now in TS Don.  All of the ingredients were there.  Super warm 87 degree water, a bit of time to develop in the Gulf. Low wind shear.  And by the end we go BUPKIS!  Turns out the shear increased as it crossed the Gulf late on Wednesday.  Then it was made worse by the unbelievably dry air in Texas.  Our atmosphere was nothing less than a sponge as the air dried up the system.

Even the vets at the National Hurricane Center were awed and these folks see lots of weather events in a lifetime:

Post-Tropical Cyclone DON Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 300834
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD.  THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.  DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA.  THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

So high pressure will build back in.  100 today, but the cloud cover will provide a little shade.  Hot, hot hot, hot.  There is another system off the coast of Nicaragua.  Perhaps it will show us some love.

–Met Rhonda.

To be fair I didn’t know this either. I knew about National Ice Cream Month.  But not this one.  All things being equal they are both important in the summer. 

One of my favorite sites, Earthgauge.net said that up to 50% of the water used on landscapes goes to waste from evaporation and runoff.  And this is why making the most of the water you use for your landscape— whether from a hose or an irrigation system— can save you gallons of water and loads of money on your utility bill.

The EPA suggests that for a healthy and water sensitive yard:

• Add mulch to plant beds to reduce evaporation, limit weed growth, keep soil temperature cool, and prevent erosion.
• Raise the lawn mower blade so your grass will grow deeper roots, which means less watering.
• When you water, make sure to spray only on the lawn and plant beds—not the sidewalk, driveway or street.
• If you have an irrigation system, visit www.epa.gov/watersense to find a WaterSense irrigation partner who can audit your system for water-efficient opportunities.

I looked at this site and they also gave great tips about  how to arrange plants so that they help make the most of your watering.  Remember not all plants are alike in their water needs.

Group plants according to their water needs.

Grouping vegetation with similar watering needs into specific “hydrozones” reduces water use by allowing you to water to each zone’s specific needs. For example, turf areas and shrub areas should always be separated into different hydrozones because of their differing water needs.

Locally the City of Austin has a very useful site that helps you decide which plants are right for your area. It’s super specific.  It asks you what you are looking for and it will let you know what and even if plants and trees will work in your yard.   LOVE IT!

This is great information you can use the rest of the summer.

When the temperature goes up outside, so does the demand for energy for cooling.

I have been in several conversations with friends lately who say they have turned up their thermostats to nearly 80 degrees and are still surprisingly (to them) comfortable.  I have always been a believer that just because the comfort level is seen as 72 degrees the inside of your house doesn’t have to be.

I’m a known cheapskate. So when people visit me they know 72 isn’t going to be what they get.  But the funny thing is they’re shocked when I tell them what I’ve set my thermostat at– the upper 70′s to lower 80′s!  Think about it.  When you are outside like in the springtime, do you really start getting all sweaty and uncomfortable when highs are in the upper 70′s/lower 80′s?  No! You’d say “What a great day!”  Why doesn’t the same rule apply inside of your home?

Earth Gauge said research indicates that for every one degree Fahrenheit increase in outdoor air temperatures, demand for energy increases by 1.5 to two percent! Rising energy use can lead to an increase in air pollutant emissions, which impact human health and contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone, or smog.

Austin Energy has been able to keep up with demand thus far this summer, but wouldn’t it be nice if the demand for more money to pay that bill didn’t come from you?  Here are a few tips to help you out.

• Start with raising the temperature of your thermostat.  If your thermostat is programmable (btw– this is a HUGE money saver that save you hundred of dollars and only cost you about $20 to purchase) Maybe set it to come on only in evening or sleeping hours when everyone is home and it’s cooled off a little outside.  No sense in cooling an empty house. For each degree you raise the thermostat, you’ll save three to five percent on air conditioning costs.
• Close shades and curtains during the day to keep the heat out.

• Use a ceiling fan to create a breeze.  Raising the thermostat by just two degrees and using a ceiling fan can reduce cooling costs by up to 14 percent! Remember that fans only cool people – turn them off when you leave a room.
• If you are purchasing a room air conditioner, look for the Energy Star label. Energy Star qualified models use at least ten percent less energy than standard models.

Keep it cool!

Met. Rhonda Lee

We’ve gotten a few e-mails about “cloud seeding”.  Thank you for them.  I find the conversation about it interesting.  There is a contingency who thinks “What are we waiting for?” and another who says “Why play Mother Nature?”.  But then there are those are like, what the heck is it?

Ok so here’s the skinny on seeding.

I found that this page from the Edwards Aquifer website was helpful in explaining it simply.

Cloud seeding got its start in 1946 when Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer, working at the General Electric Laboratory in New York, was involved with research to create artificial clouds in a chilled chamber.  During one experiment, Schaefer thought the chamber was too warm and placed dry ice inside to cool it.  Water vapor in the chamber formed a cloud around the dry ice.

 

There are few trains of thought on exactly how raindrops form but for the most part it’s agreed upon that raindrops need a nuclei or catalyst to get started.   A piece of dust will work in normal raindrop making situations.  But in cloud seeding they form around a piece of the dry ice crystals.  This way the small droplets of water that are in every cloud have something to attach to and can grow to be 0.5 mm or larger (the “official” size of a raindrop versus a droplet).  The bigger the drop the better the chance of it getting big enough to have enough moisture to not evaporate on the way down to the ground.  This sounds like the awesomest idea EVER, right?  Perhaps, but then there is this little problem(s)…

Courtesy Edwards Aquifer.

• $. It costs lots of money to seed clouds.  Some municipalities set aside over $500,000 to seed clouds.  And for that kind of green there isn’t any real guarantee that we would see green on our First Warning Weather radar screens? So to gamble with that kind of taxpayer money isn’t usually something any government is willing to take lightly.

• Secondly, there is the stuff that makes the technical process work.  There two usual ways.  In the so-called “warm rain” process, calcium chloride is usually used to provide the nucleus for raindrop formation.  For the “cold rain” way, silver iodide can be used as a nuclei because its structure is kind of like that of ice crystals.  But who wants that stuff falling on their heads en mass on a regular basis even if it’s in trace amounts?  Some argue that there’s already too much in the air and water as it is.

• Third it’s not as easy as it looks.  You pretty much have to wait on the perfect conditions to seed clouds.   Texas has tried to seed in the past.  From the EA website, they site a time in July of 1998 when the Edwards Aquifer Authority asked then-Governor George W. Bush to seed the clouds.  The Authority assured the public living near creeks that no cloud-seeding would be conducted if severe storm warnings were issued or if slow moving rainclouds were in the area, because of obvious flooding concerns.  In January 1999 the Authority’s board approved a four year contract to conduct cloud seeding.  The first scheduled seeding was scheduled for April 15, 1999.  It was canceled because there were no clouds.  It usually takes about 20 minutes to get any results.  And since research is still ongoing, the level of certainty has increased, but usually you can really only depend on an inch or less at time.  And if you are going to spend that kind of money….  See bullet point #1.

• In the 1960′s the National Hurricane Center tried to seed hurricanes to decrease their intensity.  When they did it, nothing happened.  It didn’t work.  So there’s that too.

There have been a few good efforts already this year in the Panhandle.  But there is still lots of research that needs to be done to really get the seeding up to a reliable level.