2011 had it’s share of weather extremes both nationally and locally and to see a synopsis of what we dealt with, as a country, see the following post from the National Weather Service…

http://www.noaa.gov/extreme2011/index.html

…but to remember 2011, you might think it was all about heat, and for better part of 2011, it was, but we can’t forget how quiet and then abrupt our weather became, as our year started.

Back in January, we saw temperatures pretty much normal for the season with some days a little colder than others, but on the last day of January, we saw a temperature of 78 degrees… and then a blast of Arctic air invaded Texas and not only brought snow, but also brought temperatures down to the teens and twenties. From February 1st where temperatures dropped to 19 degrees, that night, to the 2nd when temperatures never reached higher than 26 degrees and the next day when they only reached 28, we started out with some record-breaking cold. True to Texas form, in a week, we saw temperatures back into the 70s as if our recent cold weather had never occurred.

March ushered in warmer than normal temperatures which reached into the 70s and 80s and by April, we were already seeing temperatures in the 90′s and little did we know, that the most blistering heat was just around the corner for Summer.

May 25th was our first day to reach 100 degrees and by June 21st, we had already witnessed 17 days out of 27 with 100+ degree days… and it only got worse. From June 30th to September 4th, we only saw 4 days below 100 degrees and by September 29th, and a record-breaking 101 that day, we had experienced 90 days with 100 degree days… a new record for Camp Mabry and Central Texas.

On October 23rd, we saw our last 90 degree day and that set our record for 90+ degree days at 164. Although we didn’t see any more 90 degree days for the rest of the year, we did see quite a few days with 80+ degree weather and cooler weather took it’s time arriving.

Another painful part of our 2011 weather was the Texas Drought which was hard not to notice with area lakes dropping to rare levels only experienced worse back in the 1940′s and 50′s. According to the Lower Colorado River Authority(LCRA), website…

During the Drought of Record, Lake Travis dropped to an all-time low elevation of 614.2 feet msl in August 1951; Lake Buchanan dropped to 983.7 feet msl in September 1952. During the 2008-2009 drought, Lake Travis dropped to 629.83 msl and Lake Buchanan dropped to 989.86 msl.

..as of this blog post, Lake Travis stands at 626.56 feet and Lake Buchanan stands at 988.41 feet above MSL (Mean Sea Level).

With no significant change in our weather patterns in sight, experts believe that our drought will continue to present Central Texas residents with a continued need to conserve water.

As we end 2011, we have seen extreme cold, extreme heat and extreme drought and it is a reminder that as we begin 2012, we need to be conscious of how we consume water, electricity and treat our part of Texas, so that we can continue to enjoy it and ensure it is available for our children and grandchildren to enjoy as well.

-shawn r.

Did you see this cloud formation on Wednesday morning (December 28)?

Hole Punch Clouds - Courtesy: Amy Meeks

From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Hole-Punch Clouds: Also known as a fallstreak hole, this type of cloud is usually formed when the water temperature in the cloud is below freezing but the water has not frozen.  When sections of the water starts to freeze, the surrounding water vapor will also freeze and begin to descend. This leaves a rounded hole in the cloud.

The theory on its creation is that a disruption of the cloud layer stability, which can be caused by a passing jet aircraft, creates a descending motion that can lead to the stimulation of evaporation, producing a hole.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=cloud_classification

-shawn

 The following is taken directly from a Special Weather Statement
from the National Weather Service Office in San Angelo, Texas.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
529 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-232200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
529 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2011

..SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM SONORA...TO EDEN...TO BROWNWOOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM OZONA...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SWEETWATER. ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
RESIDENTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

From the National Weather Service… Austin/San Antonio Office.

…A LIGHT MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT…AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TEXAS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING…WITH SOME OF THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU…OR GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO COMFORT TO GEORGETOWN LINE. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL AND GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING…NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HOWEVER…THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

-shawn r.

From the Storm Prediction Center (via Austin/San Antonio – NWS)

An approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. There is a chance for some of the thunderstorms to be strong or severe during the late afternoon and into the evening, mainly along and east of Highway 281. The main threat would be strong wind gusts, but small hail is also possible. The showers and thunderstorms will end rapidly from west to east Monday night and Tuesday morning with light rain possible behind the front. Rainfall totals with this system will average from one tenth of an inch west…to one half inch in the east. Isolated higher totals between 1 and 2 inches are possible. High temperatures will range from the middle 60s to the middle 70s.

Slight Risk - Severe Thunderstorms in Central and East Texas Today

-shawn r.

The Bastrop All-Hazards Radio Event Was A Success!

Bastrop All-Hazards Radio Event

Many thanks to all who participated and stopped by to visit the Bastrop All-Hazards Radio Event at the HEB in Bastrop. The event held Saturday was an effort of the National Weather Service, Bastrop County Office of Emergency Management, Austin TV Meteorologists and the LCRA to promote the use of the NOAA Weather Radio.

Don’t forget that an All-Hazards Weather Radio is not just for weather events but also for all types of hazards including Wildfires and Evacuation notices.

The pics from the event are from KXAN Meteorologist Natalie Stoll.

-shawn r.

Extreme Weather 2011
A year for the record books

From extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms, a record 12 weather and climate disasters in 2011 each caused $1 billion or more in damages — and most regrettably, loss of human lives and property. NOAA’s National Weather Service has redoubled its efforts to create a “Weather-Ready Nation”, where vulnerable communities are better prepared for extreme weather and other natural disasters.

NOAA forecasts, advisories, watches, warnings and community-based preparedness programs have been and will continue play an even greater role in enhancing the economy and saving lives. A Weather-Ready Nation is one in which businesses, governments and the public are armed with accurate forecasts and other critical information on which to make smart decisions to protect life and property when severe weather threatens.

Here’s a link to the latest from NOAA.

http://www.noaa.gov/extreme2011/index.html

Interesting story coming to us from the Lower Colorado River Authority regarding the freeze effects on substations from last February’s sub-freezing weather.

Our latest forecast for the Winter months is for warm and dry weather (at least compared to seasonal averages) but so far the rain and colder weather have been a relief from our miserably hot and dry Summer.
-shawn r.

Although today marks the last day of the 2011 Hurricane Season, and of course we are well clear of tornado season, we can’t assume that our weather will be free of complications as we start December.
Back on December 23rd of 1998, Central Texas had a rather extreme situation of rain and freezing temps come together to create an icy tragedy on Austin roads.

Here’s the entry for both the 23rd and 24th, as they appear in Jim Spencer’s Weather Diary.

12-23-98    FREEZING DRIZZLE CREATES EARLY MORNING CHAOS ALL AREA BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADS BECOME ICED OVER. 400+ AUSTIN ACCIDENTS. 64 CAR PILEUP ON I-35 AT 290 KILLS 2. 1 OTHER FATALITY IN AREA, 16 TOTAL IN TEXAS ICE-RELATED ACCIDENTS. MANY BUSINESSES OPEN LATE OR CLOSE. OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH EVENING. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED AT AIRPORT. WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW A.M. Christmas travelers stranded as many flights into and out of Robert Mueller Airport are delayed & cancelled, mainly due to delays elsewhere, including DFW.

12-24-98   34    30     Trace   Freezing rain, drizzle, sleet early creates icing, particularly in the Hill Country, through Temple and Waco. Winter Storm Warning extended through early afternoon. A few snow flurries reported at airport. Clearing west, late. Cold.

Crazy to think this was on December 23rd and it serves as a reminder of what can occur here in Central Texas.

-shawn

Here in the KXAN First Warning Weather Center, we follow all types of weather and one that grabs a lot of attention but doesn’t get much discussion is lightning. Lightning is often a cause for fires during thunderstorms but there is research that pinpoints it more accurately and can help you understand that even though the rain has stopped… your still at risk for lightning-related fires.

As some of you may know, I started a company back in 2000 and brought a product called LiveStrike to the weather business. It was the first 3D live weather display product and it concentrated on lightning both in 3d and in 2d for forensic efforts, as well. Through the development and the following 10 years of usage, we’ve learned a lot from how lightning works and have noticed that lightning that occurs AFTER the rain moves out.

If you don’t remember or never saw LiveStrike… here’s a quick youtube link I keep just for this purpose…

http://www.youtube.com/user/shawnrutherford#p/u/31/QD97EP1k3Xw

Lightning that occurs after the rain is often accompanied by what we call “Multiplicity” and that simply means multiple return strokes of lightning and there are far more strikes with “multiplicity” after the rain than during. Those return strokes can also be of a greater strength than those within the rain and combines to create a greater concern for fires. In a report shared at the 1st International Lightning Meteorology Conference, held back in 2006, the following statements were made.

“From 1995 through 2004, 42% of all wildfires recorded on US Department of Interior (DOI) and US Department of Agriculture (DOA) land were natural caused (i.e., lightning started). There are three factors of a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strike that are theorized to have a role in the potential for a wildfire ignition: 1) polarity of the strike; 2) multiplicity of the strike; 3) the existence of a long continuing current (LCC). It has been suggested that given since positive flashes are hotter than negative flashes, perhaps positive polarity strikes are more likely to ignite wildfires than negative polarity strikes (Latham and Williams 2001). The multiplicity of a strike is the number of return strokes per strike.”

To read the entire report, click the link below.

http://www.vaisala.com/Vaisala%20Documents/Scientific%20papers/Climatology_of_positive_polarity_flashes_and_multiplicity_and_their_relation_to_natural_wildfire_ignitions.pdf

-shawn r.