Weather

Barkitecture Sunday at Triangle Park

October 17th, 2014 at 12:51 pm by under Weather
Barkitecture

A winning design from Barkitecture 2013

CLICK HERE for details on Sunday’s annual Barkitecture event!

Since its inception in 2005, Barkitecture has become an Austin favorite, and is gaining national exposure. Presented by Animal Lovers of Austin, Inc., this architectural dog-centric fundraiser showcases doghouses created by some of Austin’s best and brightest architects, designers and builders. Attendees will have the opportunity to bid on these unique doghouses, play at the “pup-stop”, participate in a Lofty Dog Howl-o-Ween costume contest, learn about adoption opportunities from local area rescue groups, shop at local vendor booths, let your pup enjoy a spa experience at our exclusive puppy “SPAW” and more.


NOAA WINTER OUTLOOK

October 16th, 2014 at 12:25 pm by under Weather

NOAANOAA: Another warm winter likely for western U.S., South may see colder weather

Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

October 16, 2014

Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

While drought may improve in some portions of the U.S. this winter, California’s record-setting drought will likely persist or intensify in large parts of the state. Nearly 60 percent of California is suffering from exceptional drought – the worst category – with 2013 being the driest year on record. Also, 2012 and 2013 rank in the top 10 of California’s warmest years on record, and 2014 is shaping up to be California’s warmest year on record. Winter is the wet season in California, so mountainous snowfall will prove crucial for drought recovery. Drought is expected to improve in California’s southern and northwestern regions, but improvement is not expected until December or January.
Precip
Temps
“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely. While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This outlook gives the public valuable information, allowing them to make informed decisions and plans for the season. It’s an important tool as we build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

El Niño, an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific that affects global weather patterns, may still develop this winter. Climate Prediction Center forecasters announced on Oct. 9 that the ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not yet happened, so they continued the El Niño Watch with a 67 percent chance of development by the end of the year. While strong El Niño episodes often pull more moisture into California over the winter months, this El Niño is expected to be weak, offering little help.

The Precipitation Outlook favors above-average precipitation across the southern tier, from the southern half of California, across the Southwest, South-central, and Gulf Coast states, Florida, and along the eastern seaboard to Maine. Above-average precipitation also is favored in southern Alaska and the Alaskan panhandle. Below-average precipitation is favored in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest.
Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.
In addition, the Temperature Outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in the Western U.S., extending from the west coast through most of the inter-mountain west and across the U.S.-Canadian border through New York and New England, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal for these areas to make a prediction, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, updated today and valid through January, predicts drought removal or improvement in portions of California, the Central and Southern Plains, the desert Southwest, and portions of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.  Drought is likely to persist or intensify in portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Washington state. New drought development is likely in northeast Oregon, eastern Washington state, and small portions of Idaho and western Montana.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

NASA: September was the warmest on record worldwide

October 14th, 2014 at 9:38 am by under Weather

head_title

This September was the warmest on record since 1880–the year scientists first began to track global data on temperatures.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s announcement clips on the heels of what was also the warmest August on record, which NASA said suggests an unfortunate trend in global heating.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates that an El Niño will start by the end of the year, due to warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and continue into spring 2015. An El Niño can have devastating impact across the globe, with repercussions that include abnormal temperatures and extreme weather. The last strong El Niño occurred in 1997-98.

More details will become available on global temperatures during the month of September when NOAA issues their monthly “State of the Climate” report in the coming days.


Another round of welcome rain Monday morning

October 13th, 2014 at 11:37 am by under Weather

KXAN always has an up-to-date list of area rainfall totals here. But for a quick glance, check out the maps below for select rainfall totals from Monday morning’s cold front.

10-13 hill co

10-13 metro

10-13 east

Detailed list of community rainfall totals below (expand “more” tab, then CTRL+F to search for your neighborhood):

(more…)


Sunday morning rainfall totals

October 11th, 2014 at 10:23 pm by under Weather
rainfall Sun AM
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
...LATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS...
LOCATION                       AMOUNT    TIME/DATE
...TEXAS...

...BASTROP...
3 N WYLDWOOD                   1.60 IN   0900 PM 10/11
1 NW SMITHVILLE                0.87 IN   0942 PM 10/11
8 W ROSANKY                    0.87 IN   0951 PM 10/11
SMITHVILLE   (more...)

Tropical Update!

October 11th, 2014 at 9:55 am by under Weather

During the newscasts the past few days we have had very limited time, if any at all, to discuss what is happening in the tropics.  With ACL, The Red River Showdown, and the pair of cold fronts we have been tracking, it has certainly been a wild weekend (it’s only Saturday morning).  With that being said, there is still plenty to cover from the Atlantic where we have one Tropical Storm churning away, and two other clusters of storms that are showing at least some potential for possible tropical development.  We’ll get to those in a moment.

 

But first… in the Pacific… we have this…..

Vongfong, as a super typhoon on Thursday, Oct. 9, viewed from the International Space Station (Photo/International Space Station).

Vongfong, as a super typhoon on Thursday, Oct. 9, viewed from the International Space Station (Photo/International Space Station).

Now THAT is one serious storm.  This is Typhoon Vongfong.  Vongfong was classified as a super typhoon during the middle of the week as it moved through an area of low wind shear and very warm ocean temperatures but has since lost that title. The tropical system had reached the equivalent strength of a Category 5 hurricane, featuring wind speeds greater than 257 kph (160 mph).  It at one point became the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth this year.  Since then it has weakened a bit, but Vongfong still has plans to wreak havoc in the Pacific:

The storm will weaken as it moves over the southern islands and eventually over the Japanese mainland.  Picture courtesy of Accuweather.com

The storm will weaken as it moves over the southern islands and eventually over the Japanese mainland. Picture courtesy of Accuweather.com

The islands south of Japan look to likely get the worst of the storm.  Picture courtesy of Accuweather.com

The islands south of Japan look to likely get the worst of the storm. Picture courtesy of Accuweather.com

 

Ok now back to the Atlantic.  First the two “potential tropical systems.”  

atlantic

Here is what we have on “1″ and “2″ from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. While no significant development of this system appears
likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early
next week.  This disturbance should move generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and
interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system remains
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

Finally…. Fay….

fay track

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 


El Niño not here yet, but still expected

October 9th, 2014 at 2:54 pm by under Weather

El Nino developing temp anomaliesEl Niño Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3oC (Niño-3.4) to +1.1oC (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 – January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

 

 


October bird forecast

October 8th, 2014 at 1:23 pm by under Weather

What to watch for in October: Welcome, water birds

Here’s the Central Texas bird forecast for the month, courtesy of Travis Audubon. Learn more about Central Texas birds and bird-related events for all ages at travisaudubon.org or by calling 512-300-BIRD. Travis Audubon is on Twitter and Facebook. Follow us on Twitter @TravisAudubon and give us a like at www.facebook.com/travisaudubon.

Double-crested Cormorant photo by Thomas Quine via Creative Commons

Double-crested Cormorant photo by Thomas Quine via Creative Commons

Double-crested and pied-billed

Double-crested Cormorants begin arriving in substantial numbers throughout October and soon will be a familiar sight as they roost along the south shore of Lady Bird Lake in the cypress trees. Cormorants are large, gangly black birds with orange faces, long necks and long hooked bills. You can sometimes see them sitting with their wings spread out awkwardly to dry.

Pied-billed Grebe photo by Kevin Cole via Creative Commons

Pied-billed Grebe photo by Kevin Cole via Creative Commons

You also may see newly arrived Pied-billed Grebes on the lakes and small ponds of Central Texas. These very small water birds are common in most of the U.S. year-round, but they gather in larger flocks come winter (which, for birds, is approaching fast, even though we humans might not think so). These grebes are brown and compact, with very short bills and no tail to speak of. They are noticeably smaller than other birds out on the lake, with heads that are large relative to their bodies.

They do lots of diving and can actually control their buoyancy, sinking into the water like submarines. In spring and summer, the bird’s bill is pied — white with a black stripe — but in winter is a yellowish brown.

Monthly Meeting — Where to Bird in Central Texas
6:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 16, Hyde Park Christian Church, 610 E 45th St.

It’s the weekend and you have a few spare hours and a desire to bird some place new — but where? It’s a weekday and you could slip in to work a little late, or leave early; where can you get the best birds for your time invested? In this talk by Laurie Foss you will get lots of ideas about places to go and birds to look for when you get there.You will also learn how you can use eBird to find out where the birds are. As a member of Travis Audubon, as well as other local, state, and national birding organizations, Laurie Foss is active leading field trips, teaching birding classes and making presentations to various groups, as well as working and advocating for habitat conservation.

Field Trips — Beginners welcome. Check the Travis Audubon website for details.

http://travisaudubon.org/get-outdoors/field-trips

Monthly Bird Count at Hornsby Bend
Saturday, October 11, 7 a.m. & 4 p.m.

Big Sit! at Balcones Canyonlands NWR
Sunday, October 12, 6:30 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Two-hour Tuesday! at Platt Lane, led by Ken Zaslow
Tuesday, October 14, 7:30 to 10 a.m.

Commons Ford Monthly Walk with Diane Sherrill (plants this time)
Saturday, Oct. 18, 8:30 a.m. to noon

Hornsby Bend Monthly Bird Walk
Saturday, October 18, 7:30 to 11 a.m.

Super Tuesday! at Berry Springs Park, led by Dan Callaway
Tuesday, October 21, 8 to 11:30 a.m.

Two-hour Tuesday! at Devine Lake, led by Ray and Ginny Steelman
Tuesday, October 28, 8 to 10 a.m.

Balcones Canyonlands/Water Quality Preserves – Part 2
Friday, October 31, 8 to 11 a.m.

Compiled by Travis Audubon volunteers Jane Tillman and Raeanne Martinez


Join EarthSky’s Deborah Byrd at online viewing of total lunar eclipse

October 7th, 2014 at 1:33 pm by under Weather

(EarthSky.org)  Slooh.com invites stargazers worldwide for an online viewing of the total eclipse of the moon early Wednesday morning, October 8. Deborah Byrd will be on hand as a special guest.

Deborah Byrd inside the observer's cage at the Palomar 200-inch telescope

Deborah Byrd inside the observer’s cage at the Palomar 200-inch telescope. Join her at Slooh.com for the total eclipse of the moon.

EarthSky.org editor-in-chief Deborah Byrd will join Bob Berman of Slooh.com and stargazers around the world during an online view of this week’s total eclipse of the moon on October 8, 2014. Byrd will be speaking with Berman from  (4:15 a.m. CDT – 4:40 a.m. CDT) at Slooh’s website, which you will find here.

Byrd and Berman will talk about the moon’s unique placement among the stars during the eclipse, touching on the exciting fact that the planet Uranus – a world barely visible to the eye – will be near the moon as the eclipse is taking place.

Join them!

Stargazers worldwide are invited to watch this spectacular eclipse of the moon on October 8, as it unfolds live in your night sky … and at Slooh.com. The free, real-time broadcast will begin on October 8th starting at 4:00 AM with live feeds from multiple locations located in Australia and North America.

Total lunar eclipse in 2004 by Fred Espenak

Total lunar eclipse in 2004 by Fred Espenak

Bottom line: Slooh.com invites stargazers worldwide for an online viewing of the total eclipse of the moon on October 8. Deborah Byrd will be on hand as a special guest.


Statewide drought shows signs of improvement

October 7th, 2014 at 11:45 am by under Weather

txdrought