From NOAA:

Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues

May 23, 2013

Hurricane Sandy as seen from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite on October 28, 2012. (Credit:NOAA/NASA)

In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

• A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
• Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
• El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.

Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Operations Center Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15 percent.

The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats.

“The start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families, businesses and communities need to be ready for the next big storm,” said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery. “Preparedness today can make a big difference down the line, so update your family emergency plan and make sure your emergency kit is stocked. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricane season at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

Next week, May 26 – June 1, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA is offering hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service announcements in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/.

NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a below-normal hurricane season and the Central Pacific basin is also expected to have a below-normal season. NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

The sunset of May 26th will be extra special. On that date, Venus, Jupiter and Mercury will gather in the fading twilight to form a bright triangle only three degrees wide.

A new ScienceCast video previews coming attractions in the sunset sky. Play it

Triple conjunctions of planets are fairly rare.  The last time it happened was in May 2011, and it won’t happen again until October 2015. This triple is especially good because it involves the three brightest planets in May’s night sky: #1, Venus; #2, Jupiter; and #3, Mercury.  The triangle will be visible even in places with heavy urban light pollution.

The best time to look is about 30 to 60 minutes after sunset. The three planets will be hugging the horizon, so a clear view of the western sky is essential.

Let Venus be your guide.  It pops out of the fading twilight long before the others. As soon as you locate Venus, look in that direction using binoculars.  If your binoculars are typical, all three planets will fit in the eyepiece simultaneously. As the twilight continues to fade, set the optics aside; eventually the triangle will become visible to the naked eye.

You don’t have to wait until May 26th to enjoy the show, however. The planets start gathering weeks earlier.  Dates of special interest include:

May 11th through 13th, when the crescent Moon, Venus, and Jupiter form a long diagonal line jutting upward from the sunset;

The three planets to scale. More

May 23rd, when Jupiter and Venus converge to less than 5 degrees apart, close enough for simultaneous binocular viewing;

May 24th, when Mercury passes Venus less than 2 degrees away, giving shape to the triangle that reaches maximum compactness two nights later on May 26th.

The triangle begins to disperse on May 27th, but even then the show is not over.  On May 28th, Venus passes Jupiter at a distance of 1 degree, forming a truly spectacular pair.

From beginning to end, the three naked-eye planets will be close enough to fit inside the field of ordinary binoculars from May 23rd until early June. May 26th is just the best among many very good nights.

Step outside, face west, and observe the planets.  It’s a beautiful way to end the day.

Credits:

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

http://www.flickr.com/photos/austintexasgov/sets/72157626196677382/

From the City of Austin:

Flood Safety Transformed Since Historic Flood, but Austin Still at Risk

During the 1981 Memorial Day Flood, 13 people died – 11 in cars, businesses were ravaged and Austin woke up to the dangers of flooding.

Within the first year after the flood, the City of Austin created an Emergency Operations Center and began looking at other ways to improve our safety during a flood. In the thirty-two years since the flood, Austin has:

• Vastly improved training and equipment of first responders.

• Strengthened our partnerships with the National Weather Service and the U.S. Geological Survey.

• Developed an extensive Flood Early Warning System.

• Invested more than $200 million in flood control projects, including home buyouts, detention ponds, floodwalls and higher bridges.

• Developed new technologies like ATXfloods.com for real-time flood information and road closures in Austin and Travis County and FloodPro, a web-based map viewer with the City’s floodplain-related information.

While we are much more prepared to protect lives and property from flooding, we live in Central Texas’ Flash Flood Alley and must be on the lookout for flood dangers when it rains. Even though we are still in a drought, as recently as April 2, we received three inches of rain, and there were three swift water rescues by the Austin Fire Department because of vehicles stalling out on flooded roads.

In fact, about 75 percent of flash flood fatalities are vehicle-related. Less than two feet of water can float most automobiles and trucks. Plus, you never know what unseen road hazards lurk beneath the water. Fast-moving water and debris can tear apart pavement and weaken support structures underneath. At night, it’s even more difficult to see if a road is flooded, so extra caution is needed. Don’t risk your life, the lives of your passengers or those of our first responders by attempting to go across a low-water crossing. Save Yourself! Turn Around – Don’t Drown. Visit www.austinfloods.org for more flood safety information.

It is against Texas law to leave a child under age seven unattended in a vehicle for longer than five    minutes. Last year, the Safe Kids Texas Heatstroke Task Force presented Badge of Courage Awards to a San Marcos woman and a Lubbock woman, each of whom called 911 to report an unattended child in a vehicle. In both cases, EMS arrived quickly and the children were rescued without injury.

Safe Kids Texas Heatstroke Task Force

The Safe Kids Texas Heatstroke Task Force is composed of 166 community safety professionals throughout Texas, including law enforcement officers, nurses, health educators, doctors, county extension agents, and child advocates. During Heat Awareness Day, task force members will be conducting a variety of activities to remind us of the dangers of leaving children in cars and to promote the practice of the three preventive measures of ACT.

Also, don’t forget about our 23rd annual Summer Fan Drive!!

KXAN and Family Eldercare are teaming up once again for the 23rd Annual Summer Fan Drive. With summers in Texas reaching dangerous temperatures, the Fan Drive provides needy Central Texans with relief from the life-threatening heat.

For over 20 years, the Summer Fan Drive has been serving low-income seniors, individuals with disabilities, and families with children. Funds raised during the Fan Drive go towards the purchase of fans and air conditioners to help individuals and families beat the heat.

The community is encouraged to donate to this great cause and can help in different ways. One great way to help is by donating funds online atsummerfandrive.org. A donation of $15 will be able to help someone in need with one fan.

Fan Fare Friday, the Fan Drive’s main event, is held every year at the end of June at Threadgill’s World Headquarters. It’s a day of celebration to donate fans or funds and listen to some live music. This year’s event is scheduled for Friday, June 21st.

Fans for Fans is another great way to donate to this worthy cause. Every year, KXAN and Family Eldercare team up with the Round Rock Express for the Fans for Fans event. Express fans are encouraged to bring a fan in exchange for a pair of tickets to that night’s game. The date for this year’s event is still to be determined.

Help KXAN and Family Eldercare keep Austin cool this summer.

[The table below may look offset if your browser is configured to a proportional default font.]

=================================================
NUMBER	DATE                    LOCATION
======	=====================   ===========================

59	May 20, 2013		Moore OK
58	May 24, 2011		El Reno/Piedmont OK
57	May 22, 2011		Joplin MO
56	April 27, 2011		Rainsville/Sylvania AL
55	April 27, 2011		Preston MS
54	April 27, 2011		Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL
53	April 27, 2011		Smithville MS
52	May 25, 2008		Parkersburg IA
51      May 4, 2007             Greensburg KS
50	May 3, 1999             Bridge Creek/Moore OK
49	April 16, 1998          Waynesboro TN
48	April 8, 1998           Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL
47	May 27, 1997            Jarrell TX
46	July 18, 1996           Oakfield WI
45	June 16, 1992           Chandler MN
44	April 26, 1991          Andover KS
43	August 28, 1990         Plainfield IL
42	March 13, 1990          Goessel KS
41	March 13, 1990          Hesston KS
40	May 31, 1985            Niles OH
39	June 7, 1984            Barneveld WI
38	April 2, 1982           Broken Bow OK
37	April 4, 1977           Birmingham AL
36	June 13, 1976           Jordan IA
35	April 19, 1976          Brownwood TX
34	March 26, 1976          Spiro OK
33	April 3, 1974           Guin AL 
32	April 3, 1974           Tanner AL 
31	April 3, 1974           Mt. Hope AL 
30	April 3, 1974           Sayler Park OH 
29	April 3, 1974           Brandenburg KY 
28	April 3, 1974           Xenia OH  
27	April 3, 1974           Daisy Hill IN  
26	May 6, 1973             Valley Mills TX
25	February 21, 1971       Delhi LA
24	May 11, 1970            Lubbock TX
23	June 13, 1968           Tracy MN
22	May 15, 1968            Maynard IA
21	May 15, 1968            Charles City IA
20	April 23, 1968          Gallipolis OH
19	October 14, 1966        Belmond IA
18	June 8, 1966            Topeka KS
17	March 3, 1966           Jackson MS
16	May 8, 1965             Gregory SD
15	May 5, 1964             Bradshaw NE
14	April 3, 1964           Wichita Falls TX
13	May 5, 1960             Prague OK
12	June 4, 1958            Menomonie WI
11	December 18, 1957       Murphysboro IL
10	June 20, 1957           Fargo ND
9	May 20, 1957            Ruskin Heights MO
8	April 3, 1956           Grand Rapids MI
7	May 25, 1955            Udall KS
6	May 25, 1955            Blackwell OK
5	December 5, 1953        Vicksburg MS
4	June 27, 1953           Adair IA
3	June 8, 1953            Flint MI
2	May 29, 1953            Ft. Rice ND
1	May 11, 1953            Waco TX

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Damage survey teams are continue to survey the damage path of the Newcastle-Moore tornado that occurred on May 20, 2013. We will be adding more information to web pages for this event during the next few days.

Note: As of 2:50 PM CDT, the NWS survey conducted by several teams has now rated the Newcastle-Moore tornado as EF-5. The damage survey teams have also determined that the tornado began 4.4 miles west of Newcastle and ended 4.8 miles east of Moore, yielding an approximate tornado path length of 17 miles. The preliminary maximum damage path width is 1.3 miles. Crews will continue to sort through damage for a final intensity rating. The latest Public Information Statement issued by the NWS Norman forecast office can be found here.

Further updates and more detailed information of the tornado damage areas will be released later today and Wednesday. Below is a map with the preliminary damage path of the Newcastle-Moore-South OKC tornado.

Fast Facts

• A rating of EF-5 has been given to the tornado that affected the Newcastle, south OKC, and Moore areas in McClain and Cleveland Counties.
• The tornado had.a path length of approximately 17 miles and was on the ground for approximately 40 minutes from 2:56 PM – 3.26 PM CDT.
• The preliminary maximum path width is 1.3 miles.

Information Sources

• NEW! KMZ file for the Newcastle-Moore tornado damage path only (Updated 4:05pm CDT 05/21/2013)
  
• NEW! KMZ file for the Newcastle-Moore tornado damage including path and survey point information (Updated 4:05pm CDT 05/21/2013)

• A 20-slide presentation of the Event Timeline for the Newcastle-Moore tornado including NWS forecasts and warnings, as well as social media info from Twitter and Facebook
• Reflectivity and Storm Relative Velocity Loops from the Twin Lakes, OK (KTLX) Radar from 3:04 PM – 4;42 PM CDT on May 20, 2013

• Comprehensive list of tornadoes in Oklahoma City since 1890.

• Top Ten Costliest Oklahoma Tornadoes (1950 – Present)
• Top Ten Deadliest Oklahoma Tornadoes (1882 – Present)
• Quick List of F5 Tornadoes in Oklahoma (1905 – Present)
• Detailed List of Violent Tornadoes in Oklahoma (1950 – Present)

• Cleveland County, OK Tornadoes (1875-2012)
• McClain County, OK Tornadoes (1875-2012)

• Tornadoes that have occurred in or near Moore, OK (1890-Present)

• The October 4, 1998 Tornado Outbreak Twenty-eight tornadoes occurred in central and eastern Oklahoma, including an F2 tornado which damaged parts of Moore. It was the largest autumnal outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded in Oklahoma.
• The May 3, 1999 Tornado Outbreak This outbreak included nearly 60 tornadoes in central Oklahoma. It was the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded in Oklahoma. The first F5 tornado ever to hit a the Oklahoma City metro area killed 36 people and tore through parts of Newcastle, south OKC and Moore, OK. The damage total was estimated at $1 billion. Two F4 tornadoes also ravaged parts of Kingfisher and Logan counties.
• Oklahoma City Area Tornadoes of May 8, 2003 The central United States experienced a record-breaking week of tornadoes from May 4 through May 10, 2003, when nearly 400 tornadoes occurred in 19 states and caused 42 deaths during the seven days. Included in this total were the tornadoes which hit the southern Oklahoma City metropolitan area on May 8, 2003 including an F4 tornado which tore through parts of Moore, Oklahoma City and Choctaw.
• The May 10, 2010 Tornado Outbreak This outbreak produced 35 tornadoes in the NWS Norman forecast area alone, and a total of 55 tornadoes in Oklahoma. Two EF4 tornadoes struck the Oklahoma City metro area including Moore, killing 3 people and injuring over 80 others.

• Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters: Fallout From the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak

Associated Press