Okinawa is a small, isolated island to the southwest of the southern tip of the Japanese mainland. Because of its’ small size and the fact it is surrounded by water, Okinawa is a vulnerable target for strong storms. What is now Super Typhoon Neoguri is churning through the Western Pacific Ocean and at latest check has sustained winds of 150mph (just 2mph shy of what would be considered a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic). Even though current forecasts have it weakening slightly before it gets there, the storm is forecast to brush close to the island and could potentially cause catastrophic damage. Neoguri could be the most powerful storm to hit the small island in 15 years.
Here is the latest discussion (scientific) on the Super Typhoon:
6 hour summary and analysis. Super Typhoon (STY) 08w (neoguri), located approximately 295 nm south of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan, has tracked northwestward at 15 knots over the past six hours. A 070600z SSMI microwave image reveals sty neoguri is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Additionally, animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a nearly annular eyewall has continued to expand under the influence of a very favorable environment. The current position is based on the msi animation and the microwave image with high confidence. The initial intensity of 135 knots is based on the current structure and assessment from Dvorak current intensity estimates from all reporting agencies. Upper-level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of low (05 to 10 knot) vertical wind shear and robust radial outflow, as evident in the water vapor imagery. Sty 08w continues to track along the southwest extension of a deep- layered subtropical ridge (str) to the north. 3. Forecast reasoning. A. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the previous prognostic reasoning message. B. Sty 08w will continue to track northwestward over the next 12 hours before turning northward as the str recedes with the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the northwest. By tau 24, sty neoguri will crest the ridge and recurve northeastward as a secondary trough further weakens the steering str. Due to very favorable environmental conditions, further intensification is expected over the next 24 hours with a peak of 145 knots. Beyond tau 36, cooling sea surface temperatures (sst), increasing vws ahead of the mid- latitude westerlies, and landfall into Kyushu, Japan, will slowly erode the system. C. After tau 72, sty neoguri will commence extra-tropical transition and accelerate northeastward into the cold baroclinic zone. The increased mid-latitude interaction, decreasing SST, and land interaction will cause its rapid deterioration for the remainder of the forecast period. The available dynamic model guidance remains in tight agreement, lending high confidence to the jtwc track forecast which is positioned close to the multi-model consensus.
Storm Track Statistics
|Date||Time||Lat||Lon||Wind (mph)||Pressure||Storm Type|
|Jul 03||00 GMT||8.9||146.8||30||-999||Tropical Depression|
|Jul 03||06 GMT||9.7||144.7||35||-999||Tropical Depression|
|Jul 03||12 GMT||10.8||143.9||35||-999||Tropical Depression|
|Jul 03||18 GMT||11.5||143.3||40||-999||Tropical Storm|
|Jul 04||00 GMT||12.5||142.2||50||-999||Tropical Storm|
|Jul 04||06 GMT||13.1||141.4||65||-999||Tropical Storm|
|Jul 04||12 GMT||13.7||140.4||70||-999||Tropical Storm|
|Jul 04||18 GMT||14.6||139.1||75||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 05||00 GMT||15.3||138.2||105||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 05||06 GMT||16.0||137.0||135||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 05||12 GMT||16.7||135.8||135||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 05||18 GMT||17.4||134.5||140||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 06||00 GMT||18.0||132.9||140||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 06||06 GMT||18.5||131.4||140||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 06||12 GMT||18.9||130.3||140||-999||Typhoon|
|Jul 06||18 GMT||19.7||129.1||150||-999||Super Typhoon|
|Jul 07||00 GMT||20.4||128.2||155||-999||Super Typhoon|
|Jul 07||06 GMT||21.6||127.3||155||-999||Super Typhoon|
Latest sustained winds from STY Neogury: 155mph.
Here are details from the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm’s category, and associated winds are compared to the damage that occurs during storms of this strength.
|Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.|
|157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
|Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.|