A strong early fall cold front is forecast to bring the potential for severe weather to Central Texas late Thursday night through the early morning hours Friday.
This is the latest Categorical Outlook map for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. They show the KXAN viewing area inside of the tail end of the yellow “slight risk” area for severe weather. This means the potential for storms including gusty winds large hail, and heavy downpours will be around Thursday night. Here is the latest write-up from the National Weather service:
SPC AC 010424 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX... ...SUMMARY... BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX... LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAPID EJECTION IS AN INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 03/12Z. THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD AID DEEPENING CYCLONE/SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY BEGINNING FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH AS NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES. WHAT LITTLE CINH IS OBSERVED AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY 17-18Z SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS/OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO TX AND HAIL IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE. MEAN SWLY WIND WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP ROTATION...STORM MODE FAVORS LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. Also dont forget to follow along with the storms 24/7 with our Interactive Radar!
We still can’t be 100% sure that rain showers will end by Friday morning, but it looks very likely. With that said, here is your official KXAN First Warning Weather forecast for ACL Fest weekend #1.
A new special issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society investigates the climate change connections of a wide variety of extreme weather events. The report finds that climate change worsened many heat waves, including events in Australia, China, Korea, and Japan. Climate change is also implicated in worsening several droughts, including Europe’s hot dry summer and New Zealand’s 2013 drought.
These connections underscore a larger shift in climate science. Scientists once hesitated to connect present-day extreme weather events to climate change, instead focusing on future projections. But we now know that climate change is already worsening many extreme events, with both economic and human consequences. The authors of the report further emphasize that even for events where no climate link is documented right now, they cannot rule out a connection and that a link still might emerge with additional data.
Several studies focus on the California drought, with one study finding that climate change has increased the likelihood of high-pressure “ridges” like the one that has been blocking precipitation from reaching the state. Two other studies offered mixed results after investigating a different and limited set of factors. This complex picture led some outlets to summarize the climate connection for the drought as a whole as “uncertain,” but it would be more accurate to say that some contributing factors to the CA drought have been linked to climate change while others remain uncertain. It should also be noted that none of the studies in the report took California’s high temperatures into account, a fact that some media coverage has called out. California is on track for its warmest year ever, and warmer temperatures intensify droughts by increasing water evaporation.
On precipitation, the special issue found that that climate change has increased extreme precipitation across the U.S., as well as worsening extreme rain and flooding in India. This echoes the conclusion of many outside sources including the most recent IPCC report. A separate study suggested that climate change did not worsen extreme rain in Colorado, but this might be a rare outlier: the study’s lead author has said that Colorado is “one of the few areas in the world where that seems to be the case.” He further cautioned that the Colorado study “raises a lot of questions” and is not the final word.
Source: Climate Nexus
While much of the Austin and Central Texas area has received much more rain than normal in September, the same can’t be said for North Texas. The DFW area is about to officially have experienced the driest September on record.
Driest September on Record for Dallas/Fort Worth?
Without additional rainfall at DFW Airport before the end of the month,
this will be the driest September on record for Dallas/Fort Worth.
This is likely to be the 4th calendar month this year with less than an inch of rain.
For the year to date, 2014 is among the driest years on record.
DFW is on track for a record dry September. So far this month they have had only 0.06 inches of rain. The record driest September is 0.09 set in 1984. In contrast, the wettest September for the official Dallas-Fort Worth site was back in 1932 when 10.80 inches fell. The average September rainfall is 2.55 inches.
* through September 28
I hope you’ll join me this weekend for Puppy Mill Awareness Day! Reception/Party is Saturday night, main event Sunday at Scholz Garten. Come to both if you can! CLICK HERE for details.
Sorry Ashton fans, we’re not talking about the movie. Rather, an event that had NWS members scratching their heads. Meteorological minds were bending to figure out what could possibly be the cause of a blue “blob” that was showing up on their St. Louis radar. Eventually, they figured it out. The came to the conclusion that it wasn’t rain, snow, sleet, or hail. Here’s the article explaining their theory of the mysterious blue blob from USA Today.
A swarm of butterflies, winging its way south for the winter, was “spotted” as large blue blobs on weather radar last week over southern Illinois and central Missouri.
“We think these targets are Monarch butterflies,” the National Weather Service in St. Louis noted on its Facebook page, which also includes a technical explanation of how the weather service came to this conclusion.
The monarchs were flapping their way south toward their winter home in Mexico. As noted earlier this year, the colorful insects were under stress this spring because of ongoing drought, an unusually cold winter and a lack of milkweed, their primary food source.
This isn’t the first time weather radar has “seen” bugs this year: Both grasshoppers in New Mexico and mayflies in Wisconsin were spotted on radar.
Scientists are finding that weather radar is proving useful to track birds, bats and insects. While this information is just clutter to the weather folks, it is just the thing biologists need to study the activities of flying creatures, a science newly christened “aeroecology.”
As for the butterflies, the weather service in St. Louis wished “good luck and a safe journey to these amazing little creatures on their long journey south!”
BEIJING, Sept. 15 (UPI) – It is no secret China has a serious air pollution problem, but less known are proposed solutions, the results of brainstorming in the press.Residents are encouraged to think of resolutions, and some require less technology than others. Ideas are encouraged, and some are evidence to observers that China is not ready to resolve its smog issues. The city of Los Angeles was similarly swamped with silver-bullet approaches to its smog issues in the 1950s.
“We’re seeing the exact same thing in China that we saw in L.A. — crazy ideas coming out of the woodwork,” says Chip Jacobs, co-author of a book about the history of smog in Los Angeles.
Hundreds of world leaders including President Barack Obama and U.N. Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon are gathering this week at the U.N. to discuss climate change, and build momentum for a new internationally binding agreement that can be enacted in 2015.
CLICK HERE to visit the TakePart website, and be sure to watch the opening film!