The summer-like weather of the past few days is history, thanks to the cold front which brought rain and thunderstorms to Central Texas Thursday night. Here’s the weekend ahead–don’t forget to wear sunscreen!
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, effective until 9 PM, for the following counties: San Saba, Lampasas, Llano, Burnet, Williamson, and Milam. This Watch does not include Austin, but does include Williamson County in the Austin metro area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop northwest of the Hill Country this afternoon, then transition into a squall line that moves southeast across much of Central Texas this evening. A few storms could become severe, with large hail, dangerous lightning, and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is low. Stay with KXAN-TV for updates, or click here for Interactive Radar…
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 515...WW 516...WW 517...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
This is the latest Categorical Outlook map for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. They show the KXAN viewing area inside of the tail end of the yellow “slight risk” area for severe weather. This means the potential for storms including gusty winds large hail, and heavy downpours will be around Thursday night. Here is the latest write-up from the National Weather service:
SPC AC 010424
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1124 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...
LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIMARY FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAPID EJECTION IS AN INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX
THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 03/12Z. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE SHOULD AID DEEPENING CYCLONE/SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE.
ALTHOUGH FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE AS FAR
NORTH AS NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES.
WHAT LITTLE CINH IS OBSERVED AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
BY 17-18Z SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG WIND
SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS/OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO
NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO TX AND HAIL IS MOST LIKELY ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE. MEAN SWLY WIND WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-35KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
THAT SHOULD ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP
ROTATION...STORM MODE FAVORS LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
Also dont forget to follow along with the storms 24/7 with our Interactive Radar!