Jim and I were very honored this afternoon to attend a wonderful luncheon at James Bowie High School. We accepted the 2009 Education Groundwater Stewardship Award from the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District.

During a delicious and very filling lunch prepared by Bowie High School Culinary Arts program, each award winner spoke a little about the work they do. Jim spoke about the significance of this year’s drought and how helpful the District is at getting information to us. We keep an eye on the Barton Springs flow and the current drought status which is just been downgraded to Alarm Stage. He even got some laughs with his comment about what a mouthful the District’s name is. Both of us have stumbled over that one in the past!

Here are some of the other 2009 award recipients:

2009 Groundwater Stewardship Award Winners Announced

October 14, 2009 – With the aquifer in District-declared drought for over 16 months, the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District’s Board of Directors at its last meeting was especially pleased to celebrate exemplary efforts to conserve and protect the groundwater resources of the District. The District congratulates the following recipients of this year’s awards:

Permittee of the Year: Hays Consolidated ISD–Jack Hays High School
Jack Hays High School has made significant efforts to reduce water use and proactively communicate to keep the District informed of major projects. They have a perfect compliance history during the 16 months of District-declared drought with an average pumpage 57% below the required targets.

Water Quality Protection: American Youthworks, Environmental Corps—Park Smith
The American Youthworks, Environmental Corps was nominated for their work to preserve and protect the Barton Creek watershed. In the past year they coordinated with 150 volunteers to remove invasive species, improve trail systems and reduce erosion, and restore native vegetation in many of the City of Austin’s Water Quality Protection Lands.

Research: Salamander Conservation Program, City of Austin Watershed Protection and Review Department—Laurie Dries, Ph.D. and Dee Ann Chamberlain
Dr. Laurie Dries was nominated for her work in conservation biology with regard to the Barton Springs Salamander and Barton Springs habitat restoration. Ms. Dee Ann Chamberlain was nominated for her work in managing the Barton Springs Salamander captive breeding program and documenting the life cycle. Dr. Dries, Ms. Chamberlain and the Salamander Conservation Program Staff have helped preserve the habitat and viability of the endangered Barton Springs salamander population.

Water Conservation: Slaughter Creek Acres Water Supply—Glenn Larkin and Mike Dorsey
The Slaughter Creek Acres Water Supply System has followed and enforced all User Drought Contingency Plan requirements and has maintained pumpage well below the 30% mandatory reductions during Critical Drought Stage. Resident involvement in community meetings regarding their water supply and per capita water use under 70 gallons per person per day show concern and understanding of the issues facing the Edwards Aquifer during the current drought.

Education: KXAN TV Weather Team—Jim Spencer and Natalie Stoll
The KXAN Weather Team, led by Jim Spencer and assisted by Natalie Stoll, has provided exceptional coverage of the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. Weather reports consistently relate precipitation events to aquifer recharge and drought status. The KXAN Weather Team educates viewers of the significance of Barton Springs discharge, one of the primary drought stage triggers for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, in their water levels reports.

Each year, the District presents these stewardship awards to deserving individuals, organizations, companies or agencies that have excelled in efforts to preserve, protect, and conserve groundwater resources.

 My friend Jaclyn joined me recently in the photo on the left while visiting our studio. Since Jaclyn is a weather buff, I had the great privilege of being invited to pose with her for the 2010 Down Syndrome Association of Central Texas “Share the Passion” calendar.

I’d like to thank the DSACT for including me, and also for the beautiful framed photo of Jaclyn and me that I’ll be showing on the 5 o’clock news today. 

I was one of a dozen local “celebrities” featured sharing our passions with area individuals with Down Syndrome. The calendar is a fund raiser for DSACT, and you can purchase one by calling 512-323-0808, or click here to order one online. 

 Here’s more information about the organization:

  November is starting off very dry, as we have no rain in our forecast this entire week. Quite a contrast to last month, one of the wettest Octobers on record. 

The recent rainfall has certainly changed our drought status.  Notice in this weekly Drought Monitor graphic, our area has seen significant improvement, with only a moderate drought classification at worst.  Parts of our area are no longer considered to be in a drought at all.

Notice in this animation, the significant improvement in our drought since August, thanks to more than 13″ of rainfall in September and October.

It’s important to remember though, that Lakes Buchanan and Travis are still only roughly half full, and  continue to be suffering from our two year drought.

Here is information from the National Weather Service regarding the wet weather in October, and the monthly climate reports for for Camp Mabry and ABIA:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

…RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE YEAR CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
OCTOBER 2009…

OCTOBER 2009 CONTINUED THE TREND FROM SEPTEMBER WITH MORE RAIN THAN
USUAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING OCTOBER THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS FROM NEAR DEL RIO AND EAST TO PARTS OF KINNEY AND
NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY…WHERE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER WAS LESS
THAN AVERAGE. THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONTS AND RAIN EVENTS
IN OCTOBER KEPT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 2ND WETTEST OCTOBER AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE
1871…WITH 11.90 INCHES OF RAIN.  IN ADDITION OCTOBER 2009
AT SAN ANTONIO WAS THE 10TH WETTEST ALL-TIME MONTH.  AT AUSTIN MABRY
OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 18TH WETTEST OCTOBER SINCE 1856 WITH 6.88
INCHES OF RAIN…AND THE 10TH WETTEST OCTOBER AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
SINCE 1943 WITH 6.90 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN…AND
SAN ANTONIO.

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE 1871 FOLLOW.

1. OCTOBER 1998   18.07 INCHES
2. OCTOBER 2009   11.90 INCHES
3. OCTOBER 1994    9.74 INCHES
4. OCTOBER 1942    9.56 INCHES
5. OCTOBER 2004    9.47 INCHES
6. OCTOBER 1913    8.86 INCHES
7. OCTOBER 1919    8.66 INCHES
8. OCTOBER 1981    8.61 INCHES
9. OCTOBER 1976    8.48 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1960    7.84 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT THE AUSTIN CITY CLIMATE LOCATION…LOCATED
AT AUSTIN MABRY TODAY…SINCE 1856 FOLLOW.

1. OCTOBER 1925   12.63 INCHES
2. OCTOBER 1870   12.54 INCHES
3. OCTOBER 1998   12.39 INCHES
4. OCTOBER 1960   12.30 INCHES
5. OCTOBER 1973   11.11 INCHES
6. OCTOBER 1919   10.92 INCHES
7. OCTOBER 1984   10.34 INCHES
8. OCTOBER 1923    9.25 INCHES
9. OCTOBER 1913    8.92 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1957    8.79 INCHES
…
18. OCTOBER 2009    6.88 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM SINCE 1943 FOLLOW.

1. OCTOBER 1960   13.08 INCHES
2. OCTOBER 1998   12.73 INCHES
3. OCTOBER 1973   10.40 INCHES
4. OCTOBER 1984    9.30 INCHES
5. OCTOBER 1986 AND 2002  9.11 INCHES
6. OCTOBER 1957    9.00 INCHES
7. OCTOBER 1994    7.79 INCHES
8. OCTOBER 1976    6.99 INCHES
9. OCTOBER 1959    6.94 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 2009    6.90 INCHES

CLIMATE REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX

827 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2009

...THE AUSTIN CAMP MABRY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2009...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000

CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2009

WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART  LAST YEAR`S

                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM    VALUE  DATE(S)

                                          NORMAL

................................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)

HIGHEST            92   10/15                         93  10/03

LOWEST             46   10/31                         40  10/28

AVG. MAXIMUM     78.1              81.4    -3.3     84.0

AVG. MINIMUM     59.4              59.8    -0.4     58.1

MEAN             68.8              70.6    -1.8     71.1

DAYS MAX >= 90      4                                  9

DAYS MAX <= 32      0                                  0

DAYS MIN <= 32      0                                  0

DAYS MIN <= 0       0                                  0

PRECIPITATION (INCHES)

TOTALS           6.88              3.97    2.91     2.01

DAILY AVG.       0.22              0.13    0.09     0.06

DAYS >= .01        11                                  3

DAYS >= .10         9                                  2

DAYS >= .50         4                                  2

DAYS >= 1.00        3                                  1

GREATEST

 24 HR. TOTAL    2.08   10/26 TO 10/26

SNOWFALL (INCHES)

TOTALS            0.0               0.0     0.0      0.0

SINCE 7/1         0.0

DEGREE_DAYS

HEATING TOTAL      43                32      11       29

 SINCE 7/1         48                34      14       29

COOLING TOTAL     168               207     -39      223

 SINCE 1/1       3523              2910     613     3496

.................................................................

WIND (MPH)

AVERAGE WIND SPEED              4.6

HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION    22/340    DATE  10/09

HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    39/360    DATE  10/09

SKY COVER

POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   43

NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR            8

NUMBER OF DAYS PC             10

NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY         13

AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     72

WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH

THUNDERSTORM              3     MIXED PRECIP               0

HEAVY RAIN                7     RAIN                      10

LIGHT RAIN               15     FREEZING RAIN              0

LT FREEZING RAIN          0     HAIL                       0

HEAVY SNOW                0     SNOW                       0

LIGHT SNOW                0     SLEET                      0

FOG                      19     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      1

HAZE                      1

-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.

R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.

MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.

T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

REMARKS:

HIGHEST STATION PRESSURE: 30.41 ON THE 18TH

LOWEST STATION PRESSURE:  29.56 ON THE 29TH

A NEW HIGHEST MIN RECORD OF 79 ON THE 8TH REPLACES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77

SET IN 1982.

A NEW LOWEST MAX RECORD OF 59 ON THE 11TH REPLACES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63

SET IN 1919.

THIS OCTOBER WAS THE 18TH WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD WITH 1925 BEING THE

WETTEST WITH 12.63 INCHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   AUSTIN CAMP MABRY

                                          MONTH:     OCTOBER

                                          YEAR:      2009

                                          LATITUDE:   30 17 N

                                          LONGITUDE:  97 42 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND

================================================================================

1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18

                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR

================================================================================

 1  88  73  81   5   0  16    T  0.0    0  5.5 13 350 226   32   5 3      23 350

 2  81  64  73  -2   0   8 0.00  0.0    0  4.6 13  30 173   24   6        24  20

 3  71  65  68  -7   0   3 0.34  0.0    0  2.0  8 120   0    0   9 1      13 120

 4  84  71  78   3   0  13 0.34  0.0    0  3.7 12 160 186   26   8 1      20 150

 5  79  65  72  -2   0   7 0.00  0.0    0  2.6  8  40  36    5   9 18     15 170

 6  91  74  83   9   0  18 0.00  0.0    0  5.2 13  30 327   47   7 1      23 210

 7  81  66  74   0   0   9    T  0.0    0  4.7 12 170 241   34   8        22 170

 8  91  79  85  12   0  20 0.00  0.0    0 10.0 18 160 273   39   9        30 150

 9  82  54  68  -5   0   3 1.30  0.0    0  7.1 22 340   0    0  10 13     39 360

10  60  53  57 -16   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.5  9  20   0    0  10 1      14  40

11  59  54  57 -15   8   0 0.57  0.0    0  3.3  8  40   0    0  10 1      13  40

12  71  57  64  -8   1   0    T  0.0    0  1.0  6  10   0    0  10 1       8  90

13  83  68  76   4   0  11 0.35  0.0    0  0.5  6  90 204   30   8 12     10  90

14  90  75  83  12   0  18    T  0.0    0  2.8 10 160 294   43   5 1      16 180

15  92  63  78   7   0  13 0.00  0.0    0  4.9 14 360 392   57   3 1      22 360

16  73  59  66  -5   0   1 0.00  0.0    0  6.0 15  10 363   53   4 1      22  10

17  77  55  66  -4   0   1 0.00  0.0    0  1.5  8  30 684  100   0        13  30

18  75  53  64  -6   1   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2  9 160 682  100   0        17 190

19  79  55  67  -3   0   2 0.00  0.0    0  5.8 14 160 675   99   2 1      22 160

20  83  57  70   1   0   5 0.02  0.0    0  5.8 16 140 278   41   4 1      24 150

21  78  68  73   4   0   8 0.41  0.0    0  6.5 15 140   7    1   8 1      23 130

22  72  55  64  -5   1   0 1.20  0.0    0  5.7 17 320 477   71   4 1      26 320

23  72  51  62  -6   3   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.7 14 330 674  100   0        22 340

24  76  48  62  -6   3   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.3 14 160 672  100   0        29 160

25  83  58  71   3   0   6 0.00  0.0    0  5.9 15 160 263   39   6        24 150

26  72  53  63  -4   2   0 2.08  0.0    M  5.5 16  10   0    0  10 13     29 360

27  70  47  59  -8   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.8  9 300 667  100   1        15 170

28  82  51  67   1   0   2 0.08  0.0    0  5.8 16 160  32    5   7 1      25 130

29  82  56  69   3   0   4 0.19  0.0    0  9.5 20 320 112   17   9 1      33 320

30  70  49  60  -6   5   0    T  0.0    0  3.5 12 340 491   74   4        17 320

31  74  46  60  -5   5   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.2  9 300 660  100   0        15 290

================================================================================

SM 2421 1842        43 168  6.88     0.0 141.1         9089    176

================================================================================

AV 78.1 59.4                               4.6 FASTST  293  43   6    MAX(MPH)

                                 MISC ---->  # 22 340               # 39  360

================================================================================

NOTES:

SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

1 = FOG OR MIST

2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY

    TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS

3 = THUNDER

4 = ICE PELLETS

5 = HAIL

6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE

7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:

    VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS

8 = SMOKE OR HAZE

9 = BLOWING SNOW

X = TORNADO

CLIMATE REPORT...CORRECTED REMARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
910 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2009
 
...................................
 
...THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2009...
 
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1943 TO 2009
 
WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART  LAST YEAR`S
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM    VALUE  DATE(S)
                                          NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
HIGHEST            92   10/08                         92  10/02
                                                          10/03
LOWEST             37   10/31                         33  10/28
                                                          10/29
AVG. MAXIMUM     78.4              81.8    -3.4     84.8
AVG. MINIMUM     57.2              59.7    -2.5     51.7
MEAN             67.8              70.8    -3.0     68.3
DAYS MAX >= 90      3                                  8
DAYS MAX <= 32      0                                  0
DAYS MIN <= 32      0                                  0
DAYS MIN <= 0       0                                  0
 
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
TOTALS           6.90              3.99    2.91     1.20
DAILY AVG.       0.22              0.13    0.09     0.04
DAYS >= .01        10                                  3
DAYS >= .10         7                                  3
DAYS >= .50         3                                  1
DAYS >= 1.00        2                                  0
GREATEST
 24 HR. TOTAL    2.36   10/26 TO 10/26
                        10/25 TO 10/26
                        10/26 TO 10/26
 
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
TOTALS            0.0               0.0     0.0      0.0
SINCE 7/1         0.0               0.0     0.0      0.0
 
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL      69                38      31       40
 SINCE 7/1         72                39      33       40
COOLING TOTAL     162               148      14      148
 SINCE 1/1       3199              2517     682     2956
.................................................................
 
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED              8.1
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION    32/330    DATE  10/09
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    45/330    DATE  10/09
 
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   MM
 
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR            7
NUMBER OF DAYS PC             10
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY         14
 
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     76
 
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM              4     MIXED PRECIP               0
HEAVY RAIN                5     RAIN                       5
LIGHT RAIN               17     FREEZING RAIN              0
LT FREEZING RAIN          0     HAIL                       0
HEAVY SNOW                0     SNOW                       0
LIGHT SNOW                0     SLEET                      0
FOG                      19     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      2
HAZE                      1
 
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
 
REMARKS:
 
HIGHEST STATION PRESSURE: 30.41 ON THE 18TH
LOWEST STATION PRESSURE:  29.55 ON THE 29TH
 
A NEW HIGHEST MIN RECORD OF 78 ON THE 8TH REPLACES THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 76 SET IN 1990.
A NEW LOWEST MAX RECORD OF 59 ON THE 11TH REPLACES THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 66 SET IN 2000.
THIS WAS THE 9TH COLDEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD WITH THE COLDEST
BEING 61.4 DEGREES SET IN 1976.
THIS WAS THE 8TH LOWEST AVERAGE MAXIMUMS FOR OCTOBER ON RECORD
WITH THE LOWEST BEING 71.7 SET IN 1976.
THIS WAS THE 10TH WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD WITH THE WETTEST
BEING 13.08 SET IN 1960.
 
 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
 
                                          STATION:   AUSTIN BERGSTROM
                                          MONTH:     OCTOBER
                                          YEAR:      2009
                                          LATITUDE:   30 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  97 40 W
 
  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================
 
 1  88  76  82   6   0  17    T  0.0    0  9.6 18 360   M    M   8        24 180
 2  81  61  71  -4   0   6    T  0.0    0  9.4 21  30   M    M   8 1      25  30
 3  72  60  66  -9   0   1 0.79  0.0    0  4.3 10  90   M    M   9 13     14  90
 4  85  72  79   4   0  14 0.10  0.0    0  6.0 16 210   M    M   9 13     21 210
 5  80  66  73  -1   0   8    T  0.0    0  7.3 17  10   M    M   9 128    21  10
 6  91  74  83   9   0  18    T  0.0    0  8.6 22 190   M    M   6 1      29 200
 7  82  66  74   0   0   9    T  0.0    0  8.6 17  20   M    M   8        21 170
 8  92  78  85  12   0  20    T  0.0    0 15.7 28 180   M    M   7        38 190
 9  82  55  69  -4   0   4 1.79  0.0    0 12.9 32 330   M    M   9 13     45 330
10  60  53  57 -16   8   0    T  0.0    0 10.3 15  40   M    M  10 1      20  40
11  59  55  57 -15   8   0 0.44  0.0    0  9.2 16  40   M    M  10 1      20  60
12  71  57  64  -8   1   0 0.02  0.0    0  5.3 10  10   M    M   9 1      13  10
13  83  68  76   4   0  11 0.15  0.0    0  2.8 12 310   M    M   9 12     15 320
14  89  74  82  10   0  17 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 15 200   M    M   6 1      20 180
15  91  65  78   7   0  13 0.00  0.0    0 10.3 23  10   M    M   5 1      28 360
16  73  56  65  -6   0   0    T  0.0    0 13.3 22  20   M    M   5 1      26  10
17  76  50  63  -8   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 12  40   M    M   1        15  40
18  74  48  61  -9   4   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 13 180   M    M   0        16 180
19  79  47  63  -7   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.2 20 210   M    M   2 1      25 200
20  83  50  67  -3   0   2    T  0.0    0  8.2 23 150   M    M   5 1      28 140
21  81  70  76   7   0  11 0.10  0.0    0 11.3 21 140   M    M   8 1      30 150
22  72  49  61  -8   4   0 1.06  0.0    0  8.7 20 320   M    M   5 1      28 320
23  72  46  59 -10   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 13 300   M    M   0        18 330
24  76  42  59  -9   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 17 160   M    M   1        22 150
25  84  53  69   1   0   4 0.00  0.0    0  9.7 22 180   M    M   5        28 170
26  72  54  63  -4   2   0 2.36  0.0    0 10.7 28  20   M    M  10 13     35  20
27  68  46  57 -10   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.7 12 170   M    M   1        15 170
28  83  44  64  -3   1   0 0.03  0.0    0  8.4 24 170   M    M   6        33 170
29  86  57  72   6   0   7 0.06  0.0    0 14.7 26 180   M    M   9 1      36 190
30  71  43  57  -9   8   0    T  0.0    0  5.3 14 330   M    M   6        20 330
31  74  37  56 -10   9   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.2 12 340   M    M   0        15 330
================================================================================
SM 2430 1772        69 162  6.90     0.0 251.4          M      186
================================================================================
AV 78.4 57.2                               8.1 FASTST   M    M   6    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 32 330               # 45  330
================================================================================
NOTES:
SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16
 
1 = FOG OR MIST
2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
    TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
3 = THUNDER
4 = ICE PELLETS
5 = HAIL
6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
    VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1220 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2009

…RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE YEAR CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
OCTOBER 2009…

OCTOBER 2009 CONTINUED THE TREND FROM SEPTEMBER WITH MORE RAIN THAN
USUAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING OCTOBER THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS FROM NEAR DEL RIO AND EAST TO PARTS OF KINNEY AND
NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY…WHERE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER WAS LESS
THAN AVERAGE. THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONTS AND RAIN EVENTS
IN OCTOBER KEPT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 2ND WETTEST OCTOBER AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE
1871…WITH 11.90 INCHES OF RAIN.  IN ADDITION OCTOBER 2009
AT SAN ANTONIO WAS THE 10TH WETTEST ALL-TIME MONTH.  AT AUSTIN MABRY
OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 18TH WETTEST OCTOBER SINCE 1856 WITH 6.88
INCHES OF RAIN…AND THE 10TH WETTEST OCTOBER AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
SINCE 1943 WITH 6.90 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN…DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO.

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE 1871 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1998   18.07 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 2009   11.90 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1994    9.74 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1942    9.56 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 2004    9.47 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1913    8.86 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1919    8.66 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1981    8.61 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1976    8.48 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1960    7.84 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT THE AUSTIN CITY CLIMATE LOCATION…LOCATED
AT AUSTIN MABRY TODAY…SINCE 1856 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1925   12.63 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1870   12.54 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1998   12.39 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1960   12.30 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1973   11.11 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1919   10.92 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1984   10.34 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1923    9.25 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1913    8.92 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1957    8.79 INCHES
…
18. OCTOBER 2009    6.88 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM SINCE 1943 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1960   13.08 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1998   12.73 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1973   10.40 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1984    9.30 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1986 AND 2002  9.11 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1957    9.00 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1994    7.79 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1976    6.99 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1959    6.94 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 2009    6.90 INCHES

DEL RIO WAS WEST OF THE HEAVY RAINS IN OCTOBER 2009…AND
HAD 0.65 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OCTOBER 2009.

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT DEL RIO SINCE 1906 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1930   11.69 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1969   11.33 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 2005    8.72 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 2002    7.40 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1941    7.21 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1914    6.67 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1981    6.64 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1944    6.50 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1907    6.09 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1926    5.66 INCHES

October’s rain also improved our drought status significantly. Travis, Williamson, Lee, and Blanco counties are “abnormally dry”. Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays were some of the hardest hit counties. They are still in the “moderate” drought category. Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
OCTOBER HAS BEEN VERY WET ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS RECEIVED MUCH LESS
RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN OCTOBER COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER HAS JUST ABOUT WIPED OUT THE SHORT TERM
DROUGHT ISSUES...BUT SOME LONGER TERM DROUGHT EFFECTS CONTINUE.
AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE SHOWN ONLY MINIMAL RISES.
THESE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID OCTOBER 27TH AND ISSUED OCTOBER
29TH...SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IN (D0)...ABNORMALLY DRY TO (D2)...SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. A LARGE PART OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WAS IN (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT TO (D3) EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE COUNTIES REMAINING IN (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT
STATUS WERE REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
CONTINUED WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. AS OF OCTOBER 23RD BURN BANS
WERE IN EFFECT FOR 9 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES
WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...
BEXAR...DEWITT...DIMMIT...FRIO...KARNES...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. THIS WAS THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
AVAILABLE. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR
LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO
ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN.

THE OCTOBER 29TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAD A KBDI OF 300 TO 600. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS HAD A KBDI OF 0 TO 300. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL
AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

IN THE OCTOBER 27TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED. THE REGION RECEIVED ABOUT 10 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
SEPTEMBER THROUGH OCTOBER...ENDING THE SECOND DRIEST 12-MONTH
PERIOD ON RECORD. THE RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED THE AGRICULTURAL
SITUATION. THE SEPTEMBER RAINS MADE SMALL-GRAIN PLANTING
POSSIBLE...AND THE OCTOBER RAIN HELPED THE CROPS MAKE EXCELLENT
PROGRESS. THE RAINS WILL ALSO MAKE EARLY SPRING PLANTING POSSIBLE.
THE FORAGE SITUATION IMPROVED...BUT MORE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED THIS
WINTER TO SUSTAIN ALL CROPS. THE SWEET CORN...CABBAGE...PICKLING
CUCUMBER...GREEN BEAN...AND PECAN HARVESTS WERE ONGOING. THE
PEANUT HARVEST GRADUALLY GAINED MOMENTUM.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE WET PATTERN THAT BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER HAS CONTINUED INTO
OCTOBER. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED 15 TO 20 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
LESS THAN ONE INCH TO THREE INCHES SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. FOR THE
YEAR TO DATE TOTALS...ALL SITES REMAINED SLIGHTLY BELOW TO BELOW
NORMAL DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. 

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2009 TO MIDNIGHT OCTOBER 28, 2009 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2009 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY         25.78            28.18        -2.40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     28.72            28.80        -0.08
SAN ANTONIO          26.68            28.04        -1.36
DEL RIO              11.23            16.94        -5.71

SO FAR IN OCTOBER...DEL RIO REPORTED 0.65 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.20 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.85 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SAN ANTONIO HAS RECORDED 11.90 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN OCTOBER.
THIS IS 8.38 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.52 INCHES. THIS HAS
BEEN THE 2ND WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AND THE 9TH WETTEST MONTH
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 0.6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECORDED 6.69 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN
OCTOBER AND THIS IS 3.07 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.62
INCHES. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 1.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM RECORDED 6.84 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN OCTOBER.
THIS IS 3.22 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.62 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 2.9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINFALL. BEGINNING ON OCTOBER 31ST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON OCTOBER 28TH AND VALID NOVEMBER 5TH THROUGH NOVEMBER
11TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MADE ON
OCTOBER 15TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RECENT RAINFALL AND THE TREND FOR CONTINUING RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO LESSEN THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ON RESERVOIRS...
LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EVAPORATION RATES WILL BE HELD DOWN AND LEVELS
WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED.
AREA AQUIFERS ARE DOING BETTER AND HAVE RISEN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER. MOST STOCK TANKS HAVE FILLED OR AT
LEAST NOW HAVE WATER IN THEM.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL)
OR IN THE 76 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE FOR MOST
BASINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 29TH...

MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW
NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE WET PATTERN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2                 1016.51
CANYON LAKE         909                    897.03
LAKE TRAVIS         681                    646.31
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020                    993.84
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791                    797.35
LAKE AMISTAD       1117                   1115.08

LAKE BUCHANAN HAS RISEN ABOVE NORMAL POOL DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE REGION. 

LAKE TRAVIS HAS RESPONDED TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE
AND UPSTREAM AND HAS RISEN JUST OVER 16 FEET SINCE OCTOBER 1ST. 

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) HAS RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF
STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND INTO STAGE ONE DUE TO THE
EDWARDS AQUIFER RISING ABOVE 650 FEET AND REMAINING THERE FOR
30 DAYS. THE STAGE ONE RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
30 DAYS HAVE PASSED WITH THE AQUIFER LEVELS ABOVE 660 FEET.
ALL WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ENTITIES THAT
PUMP WATER FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER. 

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS NEAR THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

THE CITY OF AUSTIN REMAINS UNDER STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS
IN AUSTIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

KERRVILLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO HAS GONE BACK INTO
STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THE BARTON SPRINGS/EDWARDS AQUIFER
CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS IMPLEMENTED LESS RESTRICTIVE WATER
RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
PUMPAGE FOR ALL OF ITS WATER USERS.

MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK
OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

El Nino’s impact is expected to continue through the winter months. Long-term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show above normal rainfall November through January. Notice the temperatures are forecasted to be below normal, mainly due to more cloud cover and rain activity.

More rain will help continue our improving the drought situation over Central and South Texas.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Heavy rains and mountain snows during the first half of October brought significant relief to many of the drought areas across the country, especially California. Much of Texas has seen elimination of short-term drought conditions due to the recent rains, though longer-term, hydrologic impacts will remain for a while, especially in southern Texas. A series of frontal systems have brought heavy rains to the East Coast states, resulting in substantial mitigation of drought conditions. The same is true of the upper Midwest, though long-term drought areas of northwestern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota still need significant rain or snow. For the most part, improvement is forecast for areas east of the Rockies during the Outlook period. West of the Divide, the situation is less clear. Improvement is predicted for California and southern Arizona, with the odds tilted toward some improvement for central and northern Arizona, northwest Nevada and Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. Despite precipitation expected during the last half of October, drought persistence is indicated for central Washington and northwest Montana.

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS THE STAGE IS SET FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS DOWN ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

TXZ139-140-154-155-168-170-310900-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FR.Y.0001.091031T0900Z-091031T1500Z/
COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD...BRADY...
SAN SABA...MENARD...MASON
245 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN THIS REGION WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

  A powerful upper level storm over the Rockies is likely to bring us rain and some strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. 

The system may produce a squall line of thunderstorms that enter the Hill Country in the morning, then progress eastward across the area into the afternoon.  More rain showers will likely follow the front Thursday night through midday Friday, before clearing skies and drier air settle in for the weekend.

Here are the latest statements regarding the approaching storm from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
WED OCT 28 2009

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-

…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY…

A COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN
TO SAN ANTONIO TO CHARLOTTE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION…BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS METRO AREAS AS WELL AS
IMPACTING LOW WATER CROSSINGS…CREEKS…STREAMS…STREET
INTERSECTIONS…CULVERTS AND HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES.

CLOUDY…COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL RAIN. THE RAIN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE IN STORE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
138 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…BELL…
BOSQUE…COLLIN…COOKE…CORYELL…DALLAS…DENTON…ELLIS…
FALLS…FANNIN…FREESTONE…GRAYSON…HILL…HUNT…JOHNSON…
KAUFMAN…LIMESTONE…MCLENNAN…NAVARRO…ROCKWALL AND
TARRANT. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS…ANDERSON…DELTA…HENDERSON…
HOPKINS…LAMAR…LEON…RAINS AND VAN ZANDT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS…MILAM AND ROBERTSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
  IMPACT NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
  SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF STORMS SLOW THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE
  SOIL IS STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
  WEEK AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS.

* SOME AREA RIVERS…STREAMS AND CREEKS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM EXPECTED
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
  
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/BIFURCATES OVER THE
   WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY…LEAD BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   SHOULD EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
   MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…WHILE A SOUTHERN SPLIT DEVELOPS
   OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MUCH OF THE DEEP
   CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT…WHICH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY AND REACH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
   FRIDAY.
  
   …EASTERN PORTIONS OK/TX TO LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS…
   AS AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD
   ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF/LOWER TX COAST THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING…STEADY INFLUX ON A MARITIME AIRMASS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIALLY BROAD/PERHAPS FULL PERIOD SEVERE POTENTIAL
   ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY. INITIALLY…ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS…LIKELY IN THE FORM
   OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE…WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AT THE BEGINNING
   OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD GENERALLY
   PARALLEL THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OK/TX THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SOLID 60S
   F SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ALREADY BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE
   DAY…VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SOUTHERLY
   FLOW AROUND 1 KM SUGGESTS THAT A MORNING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
   THREAT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS
   POSSIBLE PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SQUALL
   LINE.
  
   SUCH A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
   ATTENDANT TO THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE…WITH A GROWING CONCERN
   DIURNALLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MORE
   QUASI-DISCRETE/LEADING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS EAST TX AND THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY. EVEN WITH
   LIMITED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
   VICINITY/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES…AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT…ANY QUASI-DISCRETE PRE-MCS/SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS MAY EFFICIENTLY EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL ROTATION
   GIVEN 200-400 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH IN THE PRESENCE OF 70+ F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS.
  
   FARTHER NORTH…IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE
   SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS
   TOWARD THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

  This morning we received our first report of frost this season from Gillespie County.  That’s not a surprise to me, considering Gillespie County seems to consistently be the coolest location in the Hill Country.  Here’s our viewer report:

Jim: FYI from 3 miles NE of Fredericksburg–I had lite frost and ice on top of my truck this am (Oct. 27) still around 8 am. Surprised. My yard digital registered 37 but must have gotten colder at some point.

Larry Rabalais

Fredericksburg, Tx.

Thanks for the report Larry.  People often wonder how frost forms on their vehicles or other outdoor objects when their thermometers don’t read 32 degrees.  Remember that official temperature readings are made inside shaded, vented shelters, several feet above grassy areas, which means that locations like the surface of your car, or the grass can be several degrees colder.

There were many areas in the Hill Country this morning where temperatures fell into the 30s.  Here’s a list of today’s temperatures from the LCRA–check out the “minimum” category:

LCRA - Air Temperature Summary

Units in °F This information comes from LCRA’s network of remote gauges. Most of the gauges have no public access.

  The series of rain-making storm systems we’ve enjoyed since early September just keep coming at us.  Today’s front brought widespread, heavy rain to all of the KXAN viewing area, with rainfall totals of 2-3 inches reported in many locations, and amounts exceeding five inches in southeast San Saba County. 

These repeated storm system have now almost thoroughly saturated the ground, resulting in more standing water (which is a good sign), thus more runoff to replenish drought stricken lakes.

Another storm system will cross Texas on Thursday, and additional heavy rain will be possible then.

LCRA Rainfall Summary

Gulf moisture is streaming north Sunday afternoon. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s. A cold front will move through Central Texas early Monday morning. With all the moisture in place, rain and thunderstorms are possible in the Hill Country after midnight.  Expect heavy rainfall along the front. Isolated stronger storms with gusty winds, hail are also possible. The Storm Prediction Center includes North Central Texas in a slight risk for severe storms through 7 AM Monday.

A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at 4 AM until 7 PM Monday.  1-3″ of rain are expected with isolated areas of more precipitation over areas already saturated by last week’s rain. Give yourself extra time to get to work and watch for flooded low water crossings. Remember Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Here’s the latest HPC QPF:

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON TAP FOR MONDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

TXC013-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-149-177-187-209-255-259-285-
287-453-491-493-252100-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.A.0010.091026T0900Z-091027T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
FAYETTE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-LAVACA-LEE-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BASTROP...SAN ANTONIO...
BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...CUERO...LA GRANGE...
GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...KARNES CITY...BOERNE...
HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN...FLORESVILLE
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
 COUNTIES...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
 CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
 HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON
 AND WILSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS
  SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN
  BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
  EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
  WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
  AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS THAT
  RECEIVED COPIOUS RAINS LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DUE
  TO THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...THIS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL
  PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WHEN IT IS HARDER
TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTEROON THROUGH TONIGHT
   FOR SE OK INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD
   FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINED OVER THE PACIFIC AND
   ATLANTIC COASTS.  THE AMPLIFYING PLAINS TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
   REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL CONTINENTAL AIR...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
   NOW LOCATED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN KS AND I-44 IN OK.  THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS OK/TX AS A REMNANT LEE
   CYCLONE OVER NW TX DEVELOPS SWD TO THE DRT AREA.  THIS FRONT WILL
   SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   TONIGHT.

   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ARE SPREADING NWD FROM S TX INTO
   CENTRAL TX IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION.  THIS
   MOISTURE AND A PLUME OF 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  SOME INITIAL ELEVATED
   CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SE KS NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE ZONE
   OF MID LEVEL ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
   HERE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER S AND LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER TX
   WILL ENCOUNTER THE DEVELOPING BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE
   FRONT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 00-03Z
   TIME FRAME FROM SE OK INTO N CENTRAL TX.  THE SEWD MOTION OF THE
   FRONT AND NE-SW ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
   WILL TEND TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE COOL AIR RATHER EARLY IN THE
   STORM EVOLUTION...LEAVING ONLY A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.  OTHER STORMS COULD FORM
   FARTHER S IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN
   NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR INITIATION.

   FORECAST HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT SHOW PROFILES WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND MODEST
   SRH...A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER FLOW...AND THEN
   BACKING/STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT.  THESE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES MAY
   SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION...BUT
   A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR/ANAFRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   MODE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT.  AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

 Our next low pressure system currently over Canada will drop south Sunday. A cold front late Sunday night and into Monday will bring our next chance of moderate to heavy rain to Central Texas. Here’s the surface analysis from the HPC from Saturday night through Monday night.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
748 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241815-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LLANO…BURNET…GEORGETOWN…DEL RIO…
ROCKSPRINGS…LEAKEY…KERRVILLE…BANDERA…FREDERICKSBURG…
BOERNE…BLANCO…SAN MARCOS…AUSTIN…BASTROP…GIDDINGS…
BRACKETTVILLE…UVALDE…HONDO…SAN ANTONIO…NEW BRAUNFELS…
SEGUIN…LOCKHART…LA GRANGE…EAGLE PASS…CRYSTAL CITY…
PEARSALL…PLEASANTON…FLORESVILLE…KARNES CITY…GONZALES…
CUERO…HALLETTSVILLE…CARRIZO SPRINGS
748 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009

…GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN COMING MONDAY…

A FALL RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.  THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.  ON MONDAY SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RUNOFF FROM BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ON CREEKS…STREAMS…STREET INTERSECTIONS…CULVERTS AND
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH TO
ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY…WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING FALL RAIN MAKING SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT
WEEK…BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HPC’s QPF is calling for isolated areas up to 2.50″ inches of rain Sunday night through Monday night when the cold front moves through.