A powerful upper level storm over the Rockies is likely to bring us rain and some strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. 

The system may produce a squall line of thunderstorms that enter the Hill Country in the morning, then progress eastward across the area into the afternoon.  More rain showers will likely follow the front Thursday night through midday Friday, before clearing skies and drier air settle in for the weekend.

Here are the latest statements regarding the approaching storm from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
WED OCT 28 2009

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-

…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY…

A COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN
TO SAN ANTONIO TO CHARLOTTE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION…BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS METRO AREAS AS WELL AS
IMPACTING LOW WATER CROSSINGS…CREEKS…STREAMS…STREET
INTERSECTIONS…CULVERTS AND HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES.

CLOUDY…COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL RAIN. THE RAIN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE IN STORE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
138 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…BELL…
BOSQUE…COLLIN…COOKE…CORYELL…DALLAS…DENTON…ELLIS…
FALLS…FANNIN…FREESTONE…GRAYSON…HILL…HUNT…JOHNSON…
KAUFMAN…LIMESTONE…MCLENNAN…NAVARRO…ROCKWALL AND
TARRANT. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS…ANDERSON…DELTA…HENDERSON…
HOPKINS…LAMAR…LEON…RAINS AND VAN ZANDT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS…MILAM AND ROBERTSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
  IMPACT NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
  SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF STORMS SLOW THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE
  SOIL IS STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
  WEEK AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS.

* SOME AREA RIVERS…STREAMS AND CREEKS REMAIN SWOLLEN FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM EXPECTED
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
  
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/BIFURCATES OVER THE
   WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY…LEAD BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   SHOULD EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
   MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…WHILE A SOUTHERN SPLIT DEVELOPS
   OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MUCH OF THE DEEP
   CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT…WHICH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY AND REACH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
   FRIDAY.
  
   …EASTERN PORTIONS OK/TX TO LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS…
   AS AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD
   ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF/LOWER TX COAST THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING…STEADY INFLUX ON A MARITIME AIRMASS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A SPATIALLY BROAD/PERHAPS FULL PERIOD SEVERE POTENTIAL
   ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY. INITIALLY…ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS…LIKELY IN THE FORM
   OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE…WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT AT THE BEGINNING
   OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD GENERALLY
   PARALLEL THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OK/TX THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SOLID 60S
   F SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ALREADY BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE
   DAY…VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SOUTHERLY
   FLOW AROUND 1 KM SUGGESTS THAT A MORNING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
   THREAT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS
   POSSIBLE PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SQUALL
   LINE.
  
   SUCH A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
   ATTENDANT TO THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE…WITH A GROWING CONCERN
   DIURNALLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MORE
   QUASI-DISCRETE/LEADING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS EAST TX AND THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY. EVEN WITH
   LIMITED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
   VICINITY/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES…AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT…ANY QUASI-DISCRETE PRE-MCS/SQUALL LINE
   DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS MAY EFFICIENTLY EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL ROTATION
   GIVEN 200-400 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH IN THE PRESENCE OF 70+ F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS.
  
   FARTHER NORTH…IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE
   SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS
   TOWARD THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.