PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1220 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2009

…RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE YEAR CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
OCTOBER 2009…

OCTOBER 2009 CONTINUED THE TREND FROM SEPTEMBER WITH MORE RAIN THAN
USUAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING OCTOBER THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS FROM NEAR DEL RIO AND EAST TO PARTS OF KINNEY AND
NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY…WHERE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER WAS LESS
THAN AVERAGE. THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONTS AND RAIN EVENTS
IN OCTOBER KEPT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 2ND WETTEST OCTOBER AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE
1871…WITH 11.90 INCHES OF RAIN.  IN ADDITION OCTOBER 2009
AT SAN ANTONIO WAS THE 10TH WETTEST ALL-TIME MONTH.  AT AUSTIN MABRY
OCTOBER 2009 WAS THE 18TH WETTEST OCTOBER SINCE 1856 WITH 6.88
INCHES OF RAIN…AND THE 10TH WETTEST OCTOBER AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
SINCE 1943 WITH 6.90 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN…DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO.

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT SAN ANTONIO SINCE 1871 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1998   18.07 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 2009   11.90 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1994    9.74 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1942    9.56 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 2004    9.47 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1913    8.86 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1919    8.66 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1981    8.61 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1976    8.48 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1960    7.84 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT THE AUSTIN CITY CLIMATE LOCATION…LOCATED
AT AUSTIN MABRY TODAY…SINCE 1856 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1925   12.63 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1870   12.54 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1998   12.39 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1960   12.30 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1973   11.11 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1919   10.92 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1984   10.34 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1923    9.25 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1913    8.92 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1957    8.79 INCHES
…
18. OCTOBER 2009    6.88 INCHES

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM SINCE 1943 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1960   13.08 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1998   12.73 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 1973   10.40 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 1984    9.30 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1986 AND 2002  9.11 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1957    9.00 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1994    7.79 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1976    6.99 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1959    6.94 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 2009    6.90 INCHES

DEL RIO WAS WEST OF THE HEAVY RAINS IN OCTOBER 2009…AND
HAD 0.65 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OCTOBER 2009.

THE WETTEST OCTOBERS AT DEL RIO SINCE 1906 FOLLOW.

 1. OCTOBER 1930   11.69 INCHES
 2. OCTOBER 1969   11.33 INCHES
 3. OCTOBER 2005    8.72 INCHES
 4. OCTOBER 2002    7.40 INCHES
 5. OCTOBER 1941    7.21 INCHES
 6. OCTOBER 1914    6.67 INCHES
 7. OCTOBER 1981    6.64 INCHES
 8. OCTOBER 1944    6.50 INCHES
 9. OCTOBER 1907    6.09 INCHES
10. OCTOBER 1926    5.66 INCHES

October’s rain also improved our drought status significantly. Travis, Williamson, Lee, and Blanco counties are “abnormally dry”. Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays were some of the hardest hit counties. They are still in the “moderate” drought category. Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
OCTOBER HAS BEEN VERY WET ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS RECEIVED MUCH LESS
RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN OCTOBER COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER HAS JUST ABOUT WIPED OUT THE SHORT TERM
DROUGHT ISSUES...BUT SOME LONGER TERM DROUGHT EFFECTS CONTINUE.
AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE SHOWN ONLY MINIMAL RISES.
THESE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID OCTOBER 27TH AND ISSUED OCTOBER
29TH...SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IN (D0)...ABNORMALLY DRY TO (D2)...SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. A LARGE PART OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WAS IN (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT TO (D3) EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE COUNTIES REMAINING IN (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT
STATUS WERE REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
CONTINUED WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. AS OF OCTOBER 23RD BURN BANS
WERE IN EFFECT FOR 9 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES
WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...
BEXAR...DEWITT...DIMMIT...FRIO...KARNES...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES. THIS WAS THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR MAP
AVAILABLE. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR
LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO
ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN.

THE OCTOBER 29TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAD A KBDI OF 300 TO 600. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS HAD A KBDI OF 0 TO 300. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL
AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

IN THE OCTOBER 27TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED. THE REGION RECEIVED ABOUT 10 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
SEPTEMBER THROUGH OCTOBER...ENDING THE SECOND DRIEST 12-MONTH
PERIOD ON RECORD. THE RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED THE AGRICULTURAL
SITUATION. THE SEPTEMBER RAINS MADE SMALL-GRAIN PLANTING
POSSIBLE...AND THE OCTOBER RAIN HELPED THE CROPS MAKE EXCELLENT
PROGRESS. THE RAINS WILL ALSO MAKE EARLY SPRING PLANTING POSSIBLE.
THE FORAGE SITUATION IMPROVED...BUT MORE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED THIS
WINTER TO SUSTAIN ALL CROPS. THE SWEET CORN...CABBAGE...PICKLING
CUCUMBER...GREEN BEAN...AND PECAN HARVESTS WERE ONGOING. THE
PEANUT HARVEST GRADUALLY GAINED MOMENTUM.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE WET PATTERN THAT BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER HAS CONTINUED INTO
OCTOBER. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED 15 TO 20 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
LESS THAN ONE INCH TO THREE INCHES SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. FOR THE
YEAR TO DATE TOTALS...ALL SITES REMAINED SLIGHTLY BELOW TO BELOW
NORMAL DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. 

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2009 TO MIDNIGHT OCTOBER 28, 2009 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                 2009 RAINFALL   NORMAL TO DATE   DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY         25.78            28.18        -2.40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     28.72            28.80        -0.08
SAN ANTONIO          26.68            28.04        -1.36
DEL RIO              11.23            16.94        -5.71

SO FAR IN OCTOBER...DEL RIO REPORTED 0.65 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.20 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.85 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SAN ANTONIO HAS RECORDED 11.90 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN OCTOBER.
THIS IS 8.38 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.52 INCHES. THIS HAS
BEEN THE 2ND WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AND THE 9TH WETTEST MONTH
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 0.6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY HAS RECORDED 6.69 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN
OCTOBER AND THIS IS 3.07 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.62
INCHES. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 1.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM RECORDED 6.84 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN OCTOBER.
THIS IS 3.22 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.62 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 2.9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINFALL. BEGINNING ON OCTOBER 31ST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED ON OCTOBER 28TH AND VALID NOVEMBER 5TH THROUGH NOVEMBER
11TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MADE ON
OCTOBER 15TH IS CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RECENT RAINFALL AND THE TREND FOR CONTINUING RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO LESSEN THE AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ON RESERVOIRS...
LAKES...RIVERS AND CREEKS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EVAPORATION RATES WILL BE HELD DOWN AND LEVELS
WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS OBSERVED.
AREA AQUIFERS ARE DOING BETTER AND HAVE RISEN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER. MOST STOCK TANKS HAVE FILLED OR AT
LEAST NOW HAVE WATER IN THEM.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT (NORMAL)
OR IN THE 76 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE FOR MOST
BASINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 29TH...

MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW
NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE WET PATTERN SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL (FT)     LATEST ELEVATION (FT)
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2                 1016.51
CANYON LAKE         909                    897.03
LAKE TRAVIS         681                    646.31
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020                    993.84
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791                    797.35
LAKE AMISTAD       1117                   1115.08

LAKE BUCHANAN HAS RISEN ABOVE NORMAL POOL DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE REGION. 

LAKE TRAVIS HAS RESPONDED TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE
AND UPSTREAM AND HAS RISEN JUST OVER 16 FEET SINCE OCTOBER 1ST. 

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) HAS RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF
STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND INTO STAGE ONE DUE TO THE
EDWARDS AQUIFER RISING ABOVE 650 FEET AND REMAINING THERE FOR
30 DAYS. THE STAGE ONE RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
30 DAYS HAVE PASSED WITH THE AQUIFER LEVELS ABOVE 660 FEET.
ALL WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ENTITIES THAT
PUMP WATER FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER. 

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER IS NEAR THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

THE CITY OF AUSTIN REMAINS UNDER STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS
IN AUSTIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

KERRVILLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO HAS GONE BACK INTO
STAGE TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS.

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THE BARTON SPRINGS/EDWARDS AQUIFER
CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS IMPLEMENTED LESS RESTRICTIVE WATER
RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
PUMPAGE FOR ALL OF ITS WATER USERS.

MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK
OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

El Nino’s impact is expected to continue through the winter months. Long-term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show above normal rainfall November through January. Notice the temperatures are forecasted to be below normal, mainly due to more cloud cover and rain activity.

More rain will help continue our improving the drought situation over Central and South Texas.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Heavy rains and mountain snows during the first half of October brought significant relief to many of the drought areas across the country, especially California. Much of Texas has seen elimination of short-term drought conditions due to the recent rains, though longer-term, hydrologic impacts will remain for a while, especially in southern Texas. A series of frontal systems have brought heavy rains to the East Coast states, resulting in substantial mitigation of drought conditions. The same is true of the upper Midwest, though long-term drought areas of northwestern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota still need significant rain or snow. For the most part, improvement is forecast for areas east of the Rockies during the Outlook period. West of the Divide, the situation is less clear. Improvement is predicted for California and southern Arizona, with the odds tilted toward some improvement for central and northern Arizona, northwest Nevada and Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. Despite precipitation expected during the last half of October, drought persistence is indicated for central Washington and northwest Montana.